99%

[Scruff]

So why does West Virginia beating Oklahoma have to happen for us get in?

If the worst happens, we would be 7-2, OSU would be 7-2, and Oklahoma and West Virginia would be 6-3.

What am I missing?

(I realize I am the one that said West Virginia needed to beat Oklahoma, but I took it from someone’s Twitter.)

It doesn't have to happen, but if it does happen it knocks OU out. Its one of like nine games that would guarantee us to be in.

 

[NobodyBeatsCy]

I’m a little foggy how K State beating Baylor does anything for us. Baylor is 1-5.

*EDIT. I found the answer in the KState Baylor thread. Nvm

 

[jsb]

It doesn't have to happen, but if it does happen it knocks OU out. Its one of like nine games that would guarantee us to be in.

My point being why wouldn’t Oklahoma winning that game help is? Does OSU have a tiebreaker over us?

 

[madguy30]

So why does West Virginia beating Oklahoma have to happen for us get in?

If the worst happens, we would be 7-2, OSU would be 7-2, and Oklahoma and West Virginia would be 6-3.

What am I missing?

(I realize I am the one that said West Virginia needed to beat Oklahoma, but I took it from someone’s Twitter.)

Would have to find it in the threads from last night but come to think of it I actually think it's the other way around for OU/WV...I just remember feeling confident in the pick as OU will be tightened up in that situation.

 

[Scruff]

My point being why wouldn’t Oklahoma winning that game help is? Does OSU have a tiebreaker over us?

You're over thinking this. That would help us. The twitter post you share... if ANY of those 9 games go our way, we are in. We could have eight go the wrong way and just one going our way puts us in.

 

[jsb]

Would have to find it in the threads from last night but come to think of it I actually think it's the other way around for OU/WV...I just remember feeling confident in the pick as OU will be tightened up in that situation.

That’s what I thought too.

 

[jsb]

You're over thinking this. That would help us. The twitter post you share... if ANY of those 9 games go our way, we are in. We could have eight go the wrong way and just one going our way puts us in.

Again, I realize that.

Take out our game and tonight is our best shot save winning next week. Do you trust Texas, especially if they fire Herman?

 

[qwerty]

It’d be nice if KSU wins tonight. That way it makes the decision to rest some players next week easier if you need to.

We will have an off week while the rest of the conference finishes up their postponed games.

 

[madguy30]

You're over thinking this. That would help us. The twitter post you share... if ANY of those 9 games go our way, we are in. We could have eight go the wrong way and just one going our way puts us in.

Well KSU is about to put it at 0-2 me thinks.

 

[Scruff]

1. Texas over Kanas (This should be a given.)
2. Iowa State over West Virginia (Very possible, but not a given.)
3. K State over Baylor (Very possible, but the second half has been iffy.)
4. Texas over KSU (Very Possible, but can't get a read on the kitties.)
5. TCU over OSU (Possible, but wouldn't count on it.)
6. Baylor over Oklahoma STate (maybe possible, but unlikely)
7. West Virginia over Oklahoma (maybe possible, but unlikely)
8. Baylor over OU (Unlikely)

Statistically speaking, its very unlikely that all 8 of those games go the wrong way. No I don't trust Texas, but a team that took us to the wire, took OU to the wire, and beat OSU/WVU. Its highly unlikely that team finishes the season losing to KSTATE and KU both.

 

[jsb]

1. Texas over Kanas (This should be a given.)
2. Iowa State over West Virginia (Very possible, but not a given.)
3. K State over Baylor (Very possible, but the second half has been iffy.)
4. Texas over KSU (Very Possible, but can't get a read on the kitties.)
5. TCU over OSU (Possible, but wouldn't count on it.)
6. Baylor over Oklahoma STate (maybe possible, but unlikely)
7. West Virginia over Oklahoma (maybe possible, but unlikely)
8. Baylor over OU (Unlikely)

Statistically speaking, its very unlikely that all 8 of those games go the wrong way. No I don't trust Texas, but a team that took us to the wire, took OU to the wire, and beat OSU/WVU. Its highly unlikely that team finishes the season losing to KSTATE and KU both.

Yes, I realize all of that happening is very unlikely. But if you look at them individually one starts to wonder. Texas gets the COVID and cancels that Kansas game and all of a sudden things look very dicey.

I had it in my head before I saw that other tweet that Oklahoma beating West Virginia was the other way we'd be good. And that seems like the most likely of all.

 

[mp444]

I’m a little foggy how K State beating Baylor does anything for us. Baylor is 1-5.

The only way Iowa State gets left out is a 3-way tie for 1st (ISU/OU/OSU) where ISU loses the tie breaker. The tie breaker ISU could lose is record against next best team. If the next best team is West Virginia, ISU would lose the tie-breaker. K State beating Baylor is about K State winning which means it is impossible for West Virginia to be the next best team (actually West Virginia and K State being tied and West Virginia winning the tiebreaker). [Note West Virginia could finish 4th even if K State beats Baylor, but in that scenario West Virginia would need to beat Oklahoma which removes the possibility of a 3-way tie for first]

 

[Scruff]

Yes, I realize all of that happening is very unlikely. But if you look at them individually one starts to wonder. Texas gets the COVID and cancels that Kansas game and all of a sudden things look very dicey.

I had it in my head before I saw that other tweet that Oklahoma beating West Virginia was the other way we'd be good. And that seems like the most likely of all.

Someone else wrote in another thread that if all that happens then god hates ISU. I think we can rest easy. Our ticket to Dallas will be punched soon.

 

[jsb]

Someone else wrote in another thread that if all that happens then god hates ISU. I think we can rest easy. Our ticket to Dallas will be punched soon.

Don't we spend a **** ton of timing talking about how God hates Iowa State?

 

[cyphoon]

Can someone enlighten me as to everything that must happen to keep ISU out of the Big 12 title game. I know the obvious, win Saturday and we're in, but I'm just curious as to the scenarios that would keep us out.

The scenario that screws us is a 3 way tie with OU and OSU with WV sitting alone in 4th place.

With a 3 way tie, the first tie breaker is head to head among each other, and that ends up being a 1-1 draw among all teams. The next tiebreaker is record against the best common opponent (or opponents if there are multiple teams tied for 4th). We don't want that opponent to be just WV. We want a team that we beat to be in 4th place, like Texas or K State. It helps that Texas beast OSU and KState beat OU.

If OU or OSU lose any games, then the 3 way tie can't happen and we are good. Likewise if we simply take care of business and win next week. Also note that the nightmare scenario requires that Texas lose to both of these crappy Kansas schools. I don't think that is worth losing sleep over.

The real nightmare is that we lose, KSU loses tonight, the Ok schools win out, and Texas has both games cancelled due to covid. I think that puts WV in sole possession of 4th place, but I'm not real clear on the rules for cancelled games.

Disclaimer: this is a bourbon induced post, courtesy of Cedar Ridge

H

 

[8bitnes]

I didn't realize how elusive the big 12 title game has been for most everyone in the big 12.

OU - 11 trips
TX - 6 trips
KSt - 3 trips
TCU - 1 trip
Bay -1 trip

Oklahoma State should have one, but 2011 fell in a year when they weren't playing the big game.

Does this omit teams that left the big 12 or is it really oklahoma with 11 appearances and all other teams with 11?

 

[Scruff]

Don't we spend a **** ton of timing talking about how God hates Iowa State?

In the past... Matty Campbell is changing those thoughts.

 

[Scruff]

Does this omit teams that left the big 12 or is it really oklahoma with 11 appearances and all other teams with 11?

Yes. I omitted all the traitors.

 

[mp444]

Are there published tiebreaker rules in the scenario that games are missed? Or are people just guessing about what would happen? [sorry if this has already been covered]

 

[Scruff]

Yes. I omitted all the traitors.

Nebraska - 6
Colorado - 4
A&M - 2
Missouri - 2