After much thought, my best-case, realistic realignment scenario.

[Win5002]

Don’t add extra mouths to feed IMO. Go to 10 or 12 for all sports with no single-sport affiliates. I also doubt Creighton would jump from the Big East but maybe if we paid enough

at the end of this contract, the idea of extra mouths to feed isn't the same as when OU and UT were hete because those two drove the contract. After they leave there isn't a huge between the top and bottom. The league would be splitting the playoff check but I don't know how the B12 gets in the future.

 

[Win5002]

I'd prefer to stay at 10 with BYU and Cincy.

Go to 12 if it gets to that? Add UCF and Memphis.

Don't want Houston at all. Too much Texas content is toxic.

Houston would add the most viewers UH vs Tt, TCU, Baylor, and OSU would normally all do well. BYU also draws very well.

IF It's 2 I think those should be the adds. Especially if the PAC isn't raided and Arizona and Colorado don't become available.

 

[AuH2O]

Houston would add the most viewers UH vs Tt, TCU, Baylor, and OSU would normally all do well. BYU also draws very well.

IF It's 2 I think those should be the adds. Especially if the PAC isn't raided and Arizona and Colorado don't become available.

One thing I like about Cincy is recruiting presence. On one hand having a conference presence helps, but elevating Cincy to the same level of conference hurts. But Cincy had a LOT of guys in the NFL for a G5, and they have tons of guys from Ohio.

 

[isucy86]

Random thoughts on a day too hot to be outside:

-These are disturbing times for the ISU athletic department, but we have flourished in an unstable environment created by an unstable conference whose two flagship members confirmed themselves as insecure jerks and backstabbing liars. Organizationally and culturally, we are well adapted for instability. We've been living with it since 2010. We are anything but entitled and I think it works in our favor. Our leadership is nimble, creative and battle tested. Football and the rest of the athletic department have defied lots of odds and enjoyed unprecedented success over the past decade. When Nebraska left, I never could have imagined us having a top 10 program while they flounder begging for the chance to go to a bowl game. On a purely ROI basis, we have run circles around the "mighty" Texas Longhorns. Five star culture versus five star recruits.

-OU and Texass' move to the SEC was defensive and rash, and in Texas' case a sign of weakness (See Kirk Bohls tweet about Bevo not liking being third best in the league after ISU). In life, most status seekers are insecure. Sure they'll both get a financial windfall, but when has money been a limitation for them? There's no guarantee ESPN's souped-up $EC is going to be the raging success the talking heads think it will be. NBC thought they had a sure fire winner with the Olympics when they signed a long term deal last decade. It isn't quite working out that way. There's a cycle to everything and there's no guarantee the $EC is always going to dominate.

-I am not a pollyanna. The stakes are high and the downside large in this round of re-alignment. This could be a debacle. However, with plenty to lose, but also a higher ceiling than many thought possible, I expect ISU to be bold and creative in trying to find allies to produce a better long term solution. I firmly believe the long term structure that will be in place for ISU and several other FBS teams in five years probably hasn't been articulated in any of the speculation on this site or elsewhere. There are smart and decent people who love the game and are growing tired of this circus. Major disruption is occurring, but the right leadership and cooperation could help birth something stable and viable. My dream is we enter 2030 looking down at Texas and OU, just like we look down at Nebraska now.

I think some of this comes down to Texas vs. Texas A&M rivalry. Those 2 are battling to see who has most revenue. With SEC deal replacing CBS with ESPN in a couple years, it was going to be tough for Texas to stay ahead of A&M.

Curious if A&M's initial consternation was a negotiating ploy. After all, they have a better FB program under Jimbo- so they could enjoy bragging rights in head-to-head.

 

[Clonehomer]

If the Big 12 stays at 8 teams a year or two it sets up some intriguing scheduling options. We would have 5 non-conf games instead of 3.

If UT and OU leave next year, the rest of the conference needs to decide whether they're going to stay together or not and add teams if they're staying together. Delaying that decision and staying at 8 doesn't help anyone. Let those teams grow under a larger conference before the next TV contract comes up.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

If UT and OU leave next year, the rest of the conference needs to decide whether they're going to stay together or not and add teams if they're staying together. Delaying that decision and staying at 8 doesn't help anyone. Let those teams grow under a larger conference before the next TV contract comes up.

OU and UT have to stay the 18 months, so they will be here through next year. The ESPN contract continue for 2 more years, adding new teams will just eat into the nest egg each current school will be trying to set up.

After we get the buyout from UT and OU and they are no longer part of the league then the current teams understand that if anyone gets a P5 offer, they will be gone ASAP, its that simple. Planning for the future is one thing, but you also have to plan for today.
Does anyone really think that if KU and ISU got an offer from the Big 10, we are sticking around to help TCU and Baylor, that is crazy. Every school has to be thinking the same thing, the one thing they should be pushing to all remaining 8 teams, is just keep everyone in the loop. None of this going behind the conferences back like OU and UT did, and cut a deal on your own. It doesn't have to be public, but every school will tell the others if they have an offer.

I also read the other day that 5 schools pledged to the conference their willingness to sign away their GOR's, the three that didn't were ISU, KU, and WV. It might be nothing or just hope, but that is also the three schools mentioned most often of landing on their feet again in another P5 conference.

It would crazy to add new teams, until towards the end of the contract, in a year or two, maybe sooner, we will know what Fox is going to do with the Big 10 and Pac 12, until we know that, then we cool are jets and wait, knowing that we still are going to get paid the full amount from the ESPN TV contract.

 

[Cloneon]

This is just more capitulation. I would not sign up for 3 guaranteed SEC team bids…no way. Now you may say, “but they have the best teams or the most teams”…if we’re talking about trying to provide more opportunity and access in an effort to save college football, you give 1 auto-bid to all conferences and that’s your playoff. They made their bed with a 16 team meat-grinder…they can live with it, and if their grand conference champion gets beat by the MAC in the playoff…that much sweeter and better for college football.

Now if we go up to 24 like the FCS, maybe then we can talk about additional at-large bids for conferences, or having a selection committee (which has been pointless and a disaster so far). It is this national perception and opinion making that has led to this in the first place. The 4-team playoff was like the Harris poll come to life.

$$$ buy opinions, but not necessarily the 'truth'.

 

[Cloneon]

OU and UT have to stay the 18 months, so they will be here through next year. The ESPN contract continue for 2 more years, adding new teams will just eat into the nest egg each current school will be trying to set up.

After we get the buyout from UT and OU and they are no longer part of the league then the current teams understand that if anyone gets a P5 offer, they will be gone ASAP, its that simple. Planning for the future is one thing, but you also have to plan for today.
Does anyone really think that if KU and ISU got an offer from the Big 10, we are sticking around to help TCU and Baylor, that is crazy. Every school has to be thinking the same thing, the one thing they should be pushing to all remaining 8 teams, is just keep everyone in the loop. None of this going behind the conferences back like OU and UT did, and cut a deal on your own. It doesn't have to be public, but every school will tell the others if they have an offer.

I also read the other day that 5 schools pledged to the conference their willingness to sign away their GOR's, the three that didn't were ISU, KU, and WV. It might be nothing or just hope, but that is also the three schools mentioned most often of landing on their feet again in another P5 conference.

It would crazy to add new teams, until towards the end of the contract, in a year or two, maybe sooner, we will know what Fox is going to do with the Big 10 and Pac 12, until we know that, then we cool are jets and wait, knowing that we still are going to get paid the full amount from the ESPN TV contract.

I agree and might add that 'legal' maneuvers are still in play and will likely influence action. But as for now the situation is still quite fluid.

 

[Die4Cy]

Good read. Thanks for posting. While CBS passed on paying premium for the $EC, I could see them emerging as a player for rights. No offense to the Mountain West, but K State/Iowa State, TCU/Texas Tech Baylor / Oklahoma State matchups are better content for CBS Sports Network than a lot of the matchups that currently air. They could program some damn good football using CBS/CBS SN the same way ABC/ESPN does now.

NBC also has lost a lot of programming, due to their expensive bid to get the Olympics this round and next. I'm not sure Big 12 football has enough cachet to pull a network deal to get all games under the umbrella of CBS or NBC, but they might get the game of the week or something similar in the next round if the conference holds together. It would be up to the conference members to do what is necessary to raise the profile of the brand at that point.

 

[clonedude]

The more I think about this whole thing, the more I think the remaining Big 12 members need to be working diligently with the PAC to form some kind of super conference.

I don't know if ISU can wait around to see if a B1G invite ever comes?

How about four, 5 team pods......

Northwest Division- Washington, WSU, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford

Pacific Division- USC, UCLA, California, AZ, ASU

Mountain Midwest Division- ISU, Colorado, Utah, KU, KSU

South Division- Okie St, TT, Baylor, TCU, WV?? (I'd let them go to the ACC, and put Houston here instead if possible?)

 

[norcalcy]

NBC also has lost a lot of programming, due to their expensive bid to get the Olympics this round and next. I'm not sure Big 12 football has enough cachet to pull a network deal to get all games under the umbrella of CBS or NBC, but they might get the game of the week or something similar in the next round if the conference holds together. It would be up to the conference members to do what is necessary to raise the profile of the brand at that point.

Agree. I think the CBS (or other network/streamer) would have a lot of interesting games and teams to choose from for marquee matchups. Build a system so that the network/streamer can flex into the best games that are not $EC. With a 12 team playoff, there will be meaningful games and storylines outside of the $EC. In my opinion, ESPN's meddling is diminishing the value of conferences. Creative minds need to find a better way to re-arrange the chess pieces so value can be maximized for all.

 

[BCClone]

People say we can’t afford to sit around and wait for an invite. Can we afford not too? If we leave early and the big 12 is intact, we get the $80 penalty and are also liable for potential damages.

People Say we can’t afford a $10-20MM drop in revenue for the last four years (and maybe longer), then how can we hand over$100MM upfront and most likely get paid a reduced payment upfront?

 

[norcalcy]

People say we can’t afford to sit around and wait for an invite. Can we afford not too? If we leave early and the big 12 is intact, we get the $80 penalty and are also liable for potential damages.

People Say we can’t afford a $10-20MM drop in revenue for the last four years (and maybe longer), then how can we hand over$100MM upfront and most likely get paid a reduced payment upfront?

I’m convinced there’s no urgency to this for any of the other players, especially B1G. I like the idea of beating these two traitors this year while having a season for the ages. The cherry on top will be getting a good settlement somewhere down the road.

 

[Neptune78]

The more I think about this whole thing, the more I think the remaining Big 12 members need to be working diligently with the PAC to form some kind of super conference.

I don't know if ISU can wait around to see if a B1G invite ever comes?

How about four, 5 team pods......

Northwest Division- Washington, WSU, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford

Pacific Division- USC, UCLA, California, AZ, ASU

Mountain Midwest Division- ISU, Colorado, Utah, KU, KSU

South Division- Okie St, TT, Baylor, TCU, WV?? (I'd let them go to the ACC, and put Houston here instead if possible?)

Get rid of WV and Baylor. Add Cincy, Houston or Memphis.

 

[StLouisClone]

The more I think about this whole thing, the more I think the remaining Big 12 members need to be working diligently with the PAC to form some kind of super conference.

I don't know if ISU can wait around to see if a B1G invite ever comes?

How about four, 5 team pods......

Northwest Division- Washington, WSU, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford

Pacific Division- USC, UCLA, California, AZ, ASU

Mountain Midwest Division- ISU, Colorado, Utah, KU, KSU

South Division- Okie St, TT, Baylor, TCU, WV?? (I'd let them go to the ACC, and put Houston here instead if possible?)

If the remaining 8 were to take a slightly smaller share of futureTV revenue, I think the Pac 12 would go along. Otherwise, I don't think USC and Oregon will go for this.

 

[singsing]

Get rid of WV and Baylor. Add Cincy, Houston or Memphis.

Throw UCF in that mix..I'd drop Kstate if there was a choice between the two

 

[CNECloneFan]

The more I think about this whole thing, the more I think the remaining Big 12 members need to be working diligently with the PAC to form some kind of super conference.

I don't know if ISU can wait around to see if a B1G invite ever comes?

How about four, 5 team pods......

Northwest Division- Washington, WSU, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford

Pacific Division- USC, UCLA, California, AZ, ASU

Mountain Midwest Division- ISU, Colorado, Utah, KU, KSU

South Division- Okie St, TT, Baylor, TCU, WV?? (I'd let them go to the ACC, and put Houston here instead if possible?)

We need to be working FOX Sports really hard...

 

[AuH2O]

People say we can’t afford to sit around and wait for an invite. Can we afford not too? If we leave early and the big 12 is intact, we get the $80 penalty and are also liable for potential damages.

People Say we can’t afford a $10-20MM drop in revenue for the last four years (and maybe longer), then how can we hand over$100MM upfront and most likely get paid a reduced payment upfront?

I think the hope is that there are enough teams with other invited to vote to dissolve if that happens.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

People say we can’t afford to sit around and wait for an invite. Can we afford not too? If we leave early and the big 12 is intact, we get the $80 penalty and are also liable for potential damages.

People Say we can’t afford a $10-20MM drop in revenue for the last four years (and maybe longer), then how can we hand over$100MM upfront and most likely get paid a reduced payment upfront?

Any school that gets an invite from a power conference will apply to join July 1, 2025 and the waiting game will continue to see if either more schools get invites or OU/UT/ESPN decide to pay to get into the SEC earlier. If OU/UT bail, that date can always be pushed earlier. I can’t remember which one but that happened with at least one of the Big 12 escapees in 2010 - they got everything set up to move in a certain year and then, as other dominoes fell, quietly moved that up one year sooner.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

People say we can’t afford to sit around and wait for an invite. Can we afford not too? If we leave early and the big 12 is intact, we get the $80 penalty and are also liable for potential damages.

People Say we can’t afford a $10-20MM drop in revenue for the last four years (and maybe longer), then how can we hand over$100MM upfront and most likely get paid a reduced payment upfront?

I tend to think that was the purpose of the letter that the league sent to ESPN, basically telling the network, "you caused this to occur, so do not think about coming to the league and tell us that since OU and UT are no longer in the league, that you will be reducing the agreed upon money."

The league is willing to go to court to show that ESPN tried to destroy the Big 12 and send those teams to the AAC, thereby getting out from under the Big 12 contract and even by paying more to the AAC, its a fraction of what they would pay to the Big 12 over the next four years.

ISU and the rest will be fine for another 4 years, that will give them all time to see what the Big 10, Pac 12 and Fox are going to do. Once they know that, then the league members will go back and lower the fees to leave the league.