Am I alone?

[shay4cy]

For what it's worth, a few tidbits on this game from the sports wagering perspective.

The line on this game came out at IOWA ST -8. The public is pounding KANSAS and the line has moved to IOWA ST -4.5.

The betting public is correct when moving the line in towards KANSAS 50% of the time over the past 3 years (14-14). You need to be correct 52.38% of the time to be a profitable sports gambler.

By contrast, line movements towards IOWA ST have been accurate 60% (18-12) of the time over the past 3 years.

Thus far:

58% of money-line action has been placed on IOWA ST to win (42% on KANSAS to win).

49% of spread action has been placed on IOWA ST to cover (51% on KANSAS to cover).

59% of over/under action has been placed on the over 47.5.

Given the substantial line movement (-8 to -4.5), the sentiment is clearly with KANSAS and as you can see above the public is .500 against the number when this happens and historically line movements are not this large.

The original line had IOWA ST favored by 8 which I agree was probably too much. This was likely by design and the books got want they wanted; a public that hasn't been profitable in moving lines the past 3 years in KANSAS games to pound it down to keep the money even on both sides which is normally what books want.

My prediction: IOWA ST 27 KANSAS 20.

See you all in Lawrence!

 

[GrindingAway]

Ok I finally got a chance to watch the hit tape. I take it all back we win easily.

 

[Doc]

Do I expect a Cyclone win today? Yes. Do I think the good guys will win today? Yes. Am I cheering for ISU to win? You better believe it.

But let's be realistic here. Kansas has one win but they've been improving throughout the season and are playing for a little bit of pride to go out with another win or two. They aren't going to roll over and play dead. ISU was 1-8 heading into our last three games of 2007 -- upset K-State & Colorado at home before losing to KU on the road. Colorado didn't have a conference win heading into the 2010 game against us.

Would I be surprised at all if Kansas wins? No. Crazier things have happened in college football.

This, exactly. We're beat up a bit, and Kansas may be the best 1-9 team ever, but still, it's not reason to abandon hope.

 

[cyrocksmypants]

Man, you guys are such a bunch of pansy *******. Seriously. It's ******* Kansas. We will not lose this game. Go ahead and bring up past regimes. Should we also bring up what happened in the 1940s? As far as I'm concerned, the only game CPR has lost that we should have won was Colorado in 2010. You could call OSU and Tech this year a toss-up, but they're proving to be pretty good teams. Just 1 game out of 48 in his career makes me feel very confident that we'll win this game, by at least two scores.

 

[cyclones12321]

If we lose to Kansas even if we beat West Virginia we don't deserve a bowl

 

[Bobby45]

I EXPECT a win, but if KU wins, I will not be shocked. Embarrassed yes, but not shocked.

I agree with your post Im hoping and praying for a Win but if Kansas blows us out it would not surprise me one bit, especially the way we played last sat at Austin.

One good thing that visitors to mem stadium in Lawrence is that its not very noisy because the fans are a long long way from the playing field.

Go Cyclones

 

[simply1]

One good thing that visitors to mem stadium in Lawrence is that its not very noisy because the fans are a long long way from the playing field.

Go Cyclones

Indeed, most aren't even in the stadium..

 

[istater7]

One bad game and people want to jump headfirst off the cliff..ridiculous

 

[dirtyninety]

I just want to see our defensive backs and corners play some ball and make a play. Quit running around like a bunch of 5 year old tiny tot soccer players chasing the ball. They are always chasing the ball. I don't care if the coaches tell them to play 10 yards off on 3rd and 7, I want the corners to play close and chuck the recievers.....I am SICK of the soft coverage. Yeah, TU had the one play where they blew past our guy, but I will accept that and KU probaby does not make two plays like that against us.

 

[Doc]

I just want to see our defensive backs and corners play some ball and make a play. Quit running around like a bunch of 5 year old tiny tot soccer players chasing the ball. They are always chasing the ball. I don't care if the coaches tell them to play 10 yards off on 3rd and 7, I want the corners to play close and chuck the recievers.....I am SICK of the soft coverage. Yeah, TU had the one play where they blew past our guy, but I will accept that and KU probaby does not make two plays like that against us.

Since Kansas can't pass very well, the corners have to play whatever defense helps them defend the run better.

 

[ISUCubswin]

L.O.L.

 

[InCytful]

Some things about Iowa State fans never change. No one expects us to win games we should.

 

[TXCyclones]

I've never been so happy to be so ******* wrong!!!

 

[CyArob]

One bad game and people want to jump headfirst off the cliff..ridiculous

Ding ding ding!

 

[HFCS]

Can't believe ISU beat a 1-9 team! It's a MIRACLE! We're better than the South Dakota State Jackrabbits, I never thought it was possible.

 

[CYCLNST8]

Nope. I fully expect to be embarrassed tomorrow to the tune of about 35-3. Throw their record out the window. Here's why:

1. KU is coming off a confidence building performance in Lubbock. ISU rolled over and died last week against TX.

2. Senior day- last chance to get a big 12 win at home.

3. KU students who don't have tix already get in for free for this game. There may actually be a KU crowd that cares.

4. Who's hungrier? ISU needs to go bowling, but KU hasn't won since September.

5. Lenz & Knott were the heart and soul of the team. Losing their on-field leadership has effectively cut the head off the snake.

6. We need to the run the ball, but rather than starting Barnett, Jantz will get the nod and once again render the zone read useless.


I'd love to be wrong, but for these reasons I won't bother watching the game tomorrow. Rip me all you want. I just wished we could have played them a month ago.

Mmm... Delicious crow. In my defense, Sam Richardson was not a part of the original equation. Happy to be wrong. Here's to a new chapter in ISU quarterback history!

 

[CYCLNST8]

So if you knew Sam Richardson was going to play you would have picked diff?

Good question. I don't know. The thought of him playing never entered my mind. I was kind of hoping for Barnett because then at least the zone read might have worked and there'd be fewer turnovers. Hopefully tonight was more about Richardon's potential and less about KU's lack of defense.

 

[SyracuseCyclone]

I waited until 15 minutes before kick and with buying the hook was able to get ISU -3.

People were putting way too much stock into KU playing unmotivated teams tough.

Would be nice to see a win vs WVA and a top notch bowl game.

 

[cyrocksmypants]

Well, I'm glad my "crazy" comment that we'd beat a crappy 1-9 team by at least two scores came to fruition. Seriously, guys, CPR coached teams are not the same as Mac teams. I feel he's given us enough in the last four years to give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

[cymate]

I think the days of let downs are over