Miami seems like a really nice get if it were to happen. Odd fit culturally though. But, hell, we have a bunch of Mormons now so screw it.
Big 12 Expansion (new thread)
- Thread starter Gilbyone
- Start date
PAC is the only game in town. And no one in town watches college football.
Right! Their top brands are more valuable if in conferences that actually care about college sports.
Distance has been a (parasitic) moat, but with if they continue to become irrelevant, change will occur. A lot riding on their new deal. Based on ratings it should be the lowest in P5. There is some long term value for the networks to subsidize that inventory, and perhaps they find a streaming vendor to make the jump.
But just like with OuT, better for Networks to have consolidation. Get CFB crazed middle and southern America to want/need to watch these teams.
It’s getting so bad, I no longer think it impossible the first move being the mountain time zone schools going to the Big 12.
It will be interesting to see what happens with their media.
In my opinion if they are going to get good media money, it would have to be unconventional and not a standard Fox/ESPN type of deal. Much like the Big 12 may face soon, the long term value of potentially being isolated from those networks for more money from a new media partner will be a big question.
I think there is way too much thinking that Scott just sucked and negotiated a poor deal last time around. In reality the PAC is just not a valuable media product. Getting Riley at USC is a nice boost to interest. While UW and Oregon may have made good hires, they certainly aren't names that are going to move the media needle.
The PAC has a huge problem. USC HAS to be in the playoff discussion at a minimum to get interest. The non-OU and UT schools in the Big 12 have been drawing much better viewership than most realize, particularly ISU and OSU. Cincy and BYU will also be nice additions in that regard. If Baylor stays good and keeps Aranda they will be fine, and KSU always seems to punch above its weight with ratings. I think UCF and Houston are really tough to predict.
They really have the highest ceiling with the amount of talent sitting in their front yards.
And they're in gigantic markets with the potential for more market penetration
I guess I'm thinking more in terms of media value. Obviously being good in a power conference would make them good media brands, but to what extent? For example, TCU was really good in a big conference, right in a huge market and they still pretty much suck in terms of media value. Baylor in its heyday was pretty underwhelming too. I do think a problem with the Texas schools other than A&M and UT is they may have gotten a lot of carryover UT viewership driven to some extent by being in the same conference. Now that the two big brands are in the SEC, will those eyeballs in Texas be on Baylor-Houston or Florida-Auburn?
Not sure that any eyeballs in Texas will really ever being on the non-Texas SEC schools unless they are playing one of the Texas schools. You would have to dig into the actual viewing numbers for Texas to determine that. Numbers will definitely shift lower overall for the Big 12 once the OuT happens, but I think that the decrease will be offset somewhat by the Cincy-BYU viewership...and increasingly by Houston-UCF. I'm still optimistic that the Big 12 will get the #3 money deal...viewer rates point towards that being the case.
I just don't know the Texas dynamic. Clearly UT and A&M are the teams that a vast majority of fans watch. But the big thing with viewership is how much interest a game can draw outside of its fanbase. I'm just not sure how much cross-over interest in Baylor, TCU, Houston, TTU there is not from people that are primarily UT and A&M fans. How much of that has to do with UT fans watching these teams because they are in the same conference?
For example, there is some viewership of the likes of Okie St. and Baylor among ISU fans because they are in the same conference. If ISU was in the Big 10 I imagine that would not be the case, and that viewership would switch to Wisconsin, Minn, etc.
Zero reason to go to 16 now. Let’s make it work with the 12 we got first.
One thing some of these programs have is the SWC history/hate. When good, I think there will still be some pull.
A previous mention of TCU. , Houston is different than TCU, and Houston the city different than DFW, although DFW is catching up. When TCU is good they need “local” people with otherwise no connection to care, good or bad. Houston when good as more upside. Same with UCF. They may be UT tshirt fans first, but the number of people with connections to UH much greater imo. Will the nation care? Not as much at first, but all brands start off by first being a big deal locally Imo.
Imo hate is as good as measure for potential relevancy as anything. Despite not doing that much in backwater conferences, the amount of hate for UH was remarkable. If they ever reach the playoffs with our auto in the expanded playoffs while A$M is left out after losing to Bama and UGa, or they are in Ok St position this year in which a win gets them in, oh man will there be a lot of attention on UH.
An aside, and with Bama winning they would not have gotten in anyway, but it would have been huge to have both Cincy and Ok St make the playoffs.
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Don't think USC is ready to become irrelevant given their sexy, big money hire and strong class coming in
If anything USC is waking up and will be a player.
Well of course. Wanting to stay relevant and needing to spend to stay relevant is why eventual movement is predicted and really the whole motive behind realignment.
Now, whether USC is more wise than OuT, and in this case thinks being a big fish in a puddle is better than moving, perhaps they will. Imo they are a true power rather than OuT. They don’t need a conference brand to subsidize them. It would be more the fringe too programs that need the bigger paychecks and conference accolades that would be the first move
The P12 must do two things to max out their media value. One, expand into the Central Time Zone with B12 schools (and not effin Houston), and two, sell or shut down PACN.
P12 has to get at least one game per week in the Noon ET window.
They also must shift their existing PACN CFB inventory to a viable streaming platform whether that be ESPN+, Prime, Apple, Paramount or Peacock. They simply cannot continue with PACN carrying any of their CFB inventory.
Putting on my steve jobs vision hat... i still think 1 of 2 things will happen.
1. Ncaa or some other new body takes control of ALL cfb, makes some rules wrt NIL, transfers, maybe some conference reorg / rationalization. Essentially become a governing body like the NFL or MLB, and starts acting like a pro league, just with college associations. Really, do what the ncaa should do, but has been to incompetent or corrupt to accomplish.
2. About 25 or 30 blue bloods break away and become an absolute separate pro league like the above. The other 40 or 50 schools are knocked down to a division 1AA type league under the ncaa. This would split up the existing conferences, though probably just for football.
Whats happening now isnt really sustainable, something structural will have to change.
1. Ncaa or some other new body takes control of ALL cfb, makes some rules wrt NIL, transfers, maybe some conference reorg / rationalization. Essentially become a governing body like the NFL or MLB, and starts acting like a pro league, just with college associations. Really, do what the ncaa should do, but has been to incompetent or corrupt to accomplish.
2. About 25 or 30 blue bloods break away and become an absolute separate pro league like the above. The other 40 or 50 schools are knocked down to a division 1AA type league under the ncaa. This would split up the existing conferences, though probably just for football.
Whats happening now isnt really sustainable, something structural will have to change.
It also gives us more chances to find other Texas coaches dating strippers with monkeys.
Trying saying that out loud, still, and not laughing out loud.
