Big 12 Expansion (new thread)

[BCClone]

they will always have the option, it is just whether that option is at the top tier.

If the BIG and SEC got to 20+, with NIL and pay-to-play, what happens if they don't reserve a spot for ND in whatever postseason competition they form? ND may alliance with the BIG just to try an prevent that (segregation) from happening.

They will have spot, a different conference would be the first choice. The big ten ticked them off with their smugness and ND told them to pee off. No way they cut a deal with the big ten, may actually help the big 12.

 

[Win5002]

I don't think this 12 will stay together...but if it did (barring horrible coaching hires) I think BYU probably elevates a ton to the point where they are considered the brand team within a decade or two. Any of the other teams could get close to it but they'll need a Snyder type of perfect decades long hire. Gundy maybe the closest thing right now, we all hope for Campbell but who knows.

BYU puts 20k more in the stands than Utah every Saturday. They're the most popular football team in the fastest growing state and the pro teams (Jazz, MLS soccer) are not direct competitors.

If you look at their football seasons 2018-2019 on wikipedia it gives the football attendance. BYU was like 51K except when USC & Washington came to town in 2018(there they got over 60K). Utah has been getting 45-46K.

So most games its been 5K but BYU could get closer to their 60K if the fan base is excited about the B12, maybe they get more like 55-56K if they have solid teams and more like 60K+ if they are contending for titles.

I hope UCF finds a way to get to the B12 ASAP because FSU is down right now and its a good time to build their brand for the league.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

SIAP but I think is really interesting.



Reads to me like Bowlsby is prepare for the B1G or SEC grabbing a big chunk of the Pac-12 (or later, the ACC) and the Big 12 moving in kind.

When the B1G adds UNC, UVA, USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington and the SEC adds Miami, Florida State, Clemson, and Virginia Tech to put both of those leagues at 20... that's when we get NC State, Pitt, Louisville, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Cal, and Stanford and just like that there are three 20-team conferences. Something like that.

 

[Trice]

Totally missed that in real time on Friday night. This is David Boren level of arrogance and stupidity. And to say that on the day of the announcement. And now the Kansas State AD is firing back. Endless drama.

Kansas State AD Gene Taylor Fires Back at Kansas AD

The drama is supposed to be over for the Big 12, at least for now. But one thing Big 12 fans all know is that the drama never seems to end. This week the league officially added Cincinnati, UCF, BYU and Houston, as all four schools accepted invites on Friday. The “other 8” in the […]

www.heartlandcollegesports.com

 

[HFCS]

ND will always have an independent option. Especially if USC goes that way. You have the service academies, plus the big 12 would play them I'm sure. Sprinkle in a few other teams looking for a good Non con and ND would have no trouble. USC could probably play several of the same teams but in the off years from ND.

I think so far the independent option has been good for them and could have worked for USC. At some point with B10/SEC exploding their profit model it may no longer be a good fit.

BYU is a microcosm to look at a miniature version of it. They were definitely better off in a strong stable WAC/MWC for 80s and 90s...when MWC weakened in mid 00s they went on their own...but really they might have been better off staying and making the MWC better with Boise St as the other marquee program.

Independent just stays where it is for each school. We're seeing super conference can exponentially explode $ and exposure.

 

[WhoISthis]

Its highly likely the PAC didn't expand because they would lose USC. If you have 1-2 top heavy brands in a league and the additions are not big regional rivals or close to a blue blood school the schools at the top typically don't want the expansion.

The B12 needed to expand after it lost UT & OU, and now the remaining schools are a lot closer in value so its not as hard to expand because you are not diluting the payout by a large amount.

If USC wasn't on the far west coast, they would have probably already been gone or soon to be gone. They may still be leaving if the B1G can get NC, Va & ND. Then I think USC might leave with as few as 3 other west coast schools maybe 4 and Colorado. Maybe unequal revenue sharing can make the PAC stay together since they are such an outlier due to geography.

You think there is a better chance a conference can overcome the UNC/Duke/NCSt politics than just adding a Pac12 side?

There is a reason why North Carolina gave the NC schools the right to vote to move to the SEC, not the BIG, if the ACC did something like pull the tournament due to the bathroom bill.

I think it is more likely UVA, UNC, Duke, and Clemson all end up in the SEC. Clemson the first, then UNC will be leveraged because if they don't NCSt will, and that gets you Duke and UVa. The SEC also wants basketball inventory. I wouldn't even be surprised if they added those plus KU. No doubt KU is telling Warren that everyday. That gives them the best CFB and MBB, and that will be be when these conferences find out a way to make the postseason basketball tournament a money maker only for those that play.

 

[HFCS]

Totally missed that in real time on Friday night. This is David Boren level of arrogance and stupidity. And to say that on the day of the announcement. And now the Kansas State AD is firing back. Endless drama.

Kansas State AD Gene Taylor Fires Back at Kansas AD

The drama is supposed to be over for the Big 12, at least for now. But one thing Big 12 fans all know is that the drama never seems to end. This week the league officially added Cincinnati, UCF, BYU and Houston, as all four schools accepted invites on Friday. The “other 8” in the […]

www.heartlandcollegesports.com

For now I just want the Big 12 to be as strong as possible...

but...

If some day we ended up in a great stable conference and KU was not in that conference I would be pleased. I think the average Texas fan is humble compared to those dbags.

 

[WhoISthis]

They get a boost from Polynesian recruits and the forced redshirt year making their team older on average.

I'm not arguing UCF could explode. Scott Frost can't beat really bad teams in the Big Ten and had an undefeated UCF team. It's obviously set up for success beyond what American conference could max out.

Gus was a big hire for them. He has a brand name and SEC cred. If he has a great start, they may never look back.

Btw, I saw USF is going to build a on campus stadium. Their Board of Regents is connected, and there is a ton of "new money" support down there for these startups. Add that and recruiting, I still like them over Boise long term. BSU could end up going to the Pac 12, but USF the ACC (although I think in the P3 world, ACC folds and one of Miami or FSU eventually ends up in the eastern side of the Big 12, ASU and Utah on the West).

 

[Win5002]

SIAP but I think is really interesting.



Reads to me like Bowlsby is prepare for the B1G or SEC grabbing a big chunk of the Pac-12 (or later, the ACC) and the Big 12 moving in kind.

That really sounds like a

SIAP but I think is really interesting.



Reads to me like Bowlsby is prepare for the B1G or SEC grabbing a big chunk of the Pac-12 (or later, the ACC) and the Big 12 moving in kind.

When the B1G adds UNC, UVA, USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington and the SEC adds Miami, Florida State, Clemson, and Virginia Tech to put both of those leagues at 20... that's when we get NC State, Pitt, Louisville, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Cal, and Stanford and just like that there are three 20-team conferences. Something like that.

I think that points to 72-80 schools involved not 60 unless you had another league close to the B12, but 40-48 making more. If you have the B1G & SEC leagues of 20 or 24, you can have two G2 leagues of 16 or 20 with playoff access, or maybe 1 extra league with 24 teams.

If this all starts to shake out by the 2025-2026, I'm not sure bowl games seem that relevant with this few of leagues. I wonder if we start to see talk of a 16-24 team playoff instead.

 

[WhoISthis]

If you look at their football seasons 2018-2019 on wikipedia it gives the football attendance. BYU was like 51K except when USC & Washington came to town in 2018(there they got over 60K). Utah has been getting 45-46K.

So most games its been 5K but BYU could get closer to their 60K if the fan base is excited about the B12, maybe they get more like 55-56K if they have solid teams and more like 60K+ if they are contending for titles.

I hope UCF finds a way to get to the B12 ASAP because FSU is down right now and its a good time to build their brand for the league.

Also, get FSU on their schedule ASAP.

It's too bad the 4 newcomers aren't playing UT this year.

 

[HFCS]

Gus was a big hire for them. He has a brand name and SEC cred. If he has a great start, they may never look back.

Btw, I saw USF is going to build a on campus stadium. Their Board of Regents is connected, and there is a ton of "new money" support down there for these startups. Add that and recruiting, I still like them over Boise long term. BSU could end up going to the Pac 12, but USF the ACC (although I think in the P3 world, ACC folds and one of Miami or FSU eventually ends up in the eastern side of the Big 12, ASU and Utah on the West).

I think part of why UCLA is so blah is that their historic stadium has no campus connection and is a 30-70 minute drive away. I used to live near their campus, now I live not too far from the Rose Bowl. It can't be good. I also lived near DePaul campus for a while when they played 90 minutes of traffic away from their basketball arena. DePaul could be a dominant program with a small arena in that thriving neighborhood the campus is in and exclusively local players.

 

[WhoISthis]

I think that points to 72-80 schools involved not 60 unless you had another league close to the B12, but 40-48 making more. If you have the B1G & SEC leagues of 20 or 24, you can have two G2 leagues of 16 or 20 with playoff access, or maybe 1 extra league with 24 teams.

If this all starts to shake out by the 2025-2026, I'm not sure bowl games seem that relevant with this few of leagues. I wonder if we start to see talk of a 16-24 team playoff instead.

First step is two conference of 40-48 super wealthy, another one or two conferences of 20-24 basically at current standards, and whatever is left.

If that starts just after 2023, it won't be more than 10-15 years before the top 40-48 with superior NLI and pay, separate in relevance after dominating the postseason and accolades. Once that occurs, there is not much standing in the way of formal separation.

 

[Win5002]

You think there is a better chance a conference can overcome the UNC/Duke/NCSt politics than just adding a Pac12 side?

There is a reason why North Carolina gave the NC schools the right to vote to move to the SEC, not the BIG, if the ACC did something like pull the tournament due to the bathroom bill.

I think it is more likely UVA, UNC, Duke, and Clemson all end up in the SEC. Clemson the first, then UNC will be leveraged because if they don't NCSt will, and that gets you Duke and UVa. The SEC also wants basketball inventory. I wouldn't even be surprised if they added those plus KU. No doubt KU is telling Warren that everyday. That gives them the best CFB and MBB, and that will be be when these conferences find out a way to make the postseason basketball tournament a money maker only for those that play.

I'm not familiar with the story but it depends if the academic or the athletic department side of NC wins out.

Also, if the B1G doesn't pull in NC & Va. I don't think they get ND to come along at any time in the future. The B1G needs at least those two Atlantic south states for recruiting. Losing Texas was huge for the B1G and the B1G will try everything to get those two IMO. I have to believe having a large enough footprint to eventually get ND is the objective. If 72-80 teams break off from the rest of FBS, the new governing body may state you have to be part of a conference.

I think the B1G is more of a basketball league than the SEC also and that is NC's real power.

 

[BCClone]

I'm not familiar with the story but it depends if the academic or the athletic department side of NC wins out.

Also, if the B1G doesn't pull in NC & Va. I don't think they get ND to come along at any time in the future. The B1G needs at least those two Atlantic south states for recruiting. Losing Texas was huge for the B1G and the B1G will try everything to get those two IMO. I have to believe having a large enough footprint to eventually get ND is the objective. If 72-80 teams break off from the rest of FBS, the new governing body may state you have to be part of a conference.

I think the B1G is more of a basketball league than the SEC also and that is NC's real power.

Big ten ticked off ND, IMO, it is extremely unlikely ND will even blink at the Big Ten. They are hooked to the ACC through 2035 at this point.

 

[WhoISthis]

I think part of why UCLA is so blah is that their historic stadium has no campus connection and is a 30-70 minute drive away. I used to live near their campus, now I live not too far from the Rose Bowl. It can't be good. I also lived near DePaul campus for a while when they played 90 minutes of traffic away from their basketball arena. DePaul could be a dominant program with a small arena in that thriving neighborhood the campus is in and exclusively local players.

Nice place to be btw

Have you been to Wintrust? Great smaller arena. Wayyy better than Rosemont, but still a trip. Gave in to making it part of this new convention center wasteland, albeit downtown wasteland.

USF on-campus is as much about showing they have the funding chops to compete as the actual stadium itself imo.

 

[Win5002]

First step is two conference of 40-48 super wealthy, another one or two conferences of 20-24 basically at current standards, and whatever is left.

If that starts just after 2023, it won't be more than 10-15 years before the top 40-48 with superior NLI and pay, separate in relevance after dominating the postseason and accolades. Once that occurs, there is not much standing in the way of formal separation.

Even if the 2 power conferences dominate playoff spots and win all of the championships, I don't believe you can get the fans of the other 32-40 teams to watch your product if their schools are completely cut out. Thats the reason for 1-2 lower paid leagues. To try and convince their fans they are a part of the new division 1 football and keep them involved for national audiences.

I don't think you can even move the 40-48 to themselves over time. You could see the SOB's try and increase the pay gap further giving those schools an advantage.

Also, what remains to be seen is how the branding is effected in the 40-48 if they have to play each other all the time. CFB have been conditioned your team is not successful unless you are undefeated or 1-2 losses. What happens when teams have 4 or 5 losses and viewership? The reason they can get 9 and 10 win seasons is non-conference games against teams financially disadvantaged. By not completely separating from the other 32-40 teams that provides more non-conference wins.

 

[ripvdub]

Big ten ticked off ND, IMO, it is extremely unlikely ND will even blink at the Big Ten. They are hooked to the ACC through 2035 at this point.

The B1G would pay their 100 mil buyout in a hot second

 

[KnappShack]

Even if the 2 power conferences dominate playoff spots and win all of the championships, I don't believe you can get the fans of the other 32-40 teams to watch your product if their schools are completely cut out. Thats the reason for 1-2 lower paid leagues. To try and convince their fans they are a part of the new division 1 football and keep them involved for national audiences.

I don't think you can even move the 40-48 to themselves over time. You could see the SOB's try and increase the pay gap further giving those schools an advantage.

Also, what remains to be seen is how the branding is effected in the 40-48 if they have to play each other all the time. CFB have been conditioned your team is not successful unless you are undefeated or 1-2 losses. What happens when teams have 4 or 5 losses and viewership? The reason they can get 9 and 10 win seasons is non-conference games against teams financially disadvantaged. By not completely separating from the other 32-40 teams that provides more non-conference wins.

Why would NFL Lite ever care about the rest? They've gone full cut throat.

Anything short of Congress passing a law to protect the small guys..... it's a dark road, folks.

 

[WhoISthis]

I'm not familiar with the story but it depends if the academic or the athletic department side of NC wins out.

Also, if the B1G doesn't pull in NC & Va. I don't think they get ND to come along at any time in the future. The B1G needs at least those two Atlantic south states for recruiting. Losing Texas was huge for the B1G and the B1G will try everything to get those two IMO. I have to believe having a large enough footprint to eventually get ND is the objective. If 72-80 teams break off from the rest of FBS, the new governing body may state you have to be part of a conference.

I think the B1G is more of a basketball league than the SEC also and that is NC's real power.

We'll see, but I think the SEC is in the position of strength for many reasons (culture, brand, politics, athletics, NCSt and VaTech leverage). In regards to academics, the Pac12 is a bigger get anyway, and the SEC is no longer the doormat they once were (likely somewhat an offshoot of their football success).

That last sentence is why I wonder if the SEC may try KU to help get ACC basketball. UK plus KU is a big pull. UNC-KU basketball ties are deep. Getting KU plus announcing an Alliance with the Big East would be an interesting setup. Could get them NC, UVa, Duke, and ultimately ND imo. At that point they may be able to be the preferred spot for USC.

 

[Win5002]

You need financial revenues to compete that is for sure. With Campbell as ISU's head coach it gives ISU hope for competing on a national level.

In the long run for fans its an interesting question.

Is it better for fan satisfaction to be a part of the 40-48 and operate at big disadvantages due to existing brands and probably a lot more losses each year.

Or is competing in a rebuilt B12 at about 50-60% of B1G/SEC revenue and having a lot easier chance of competing in football provide better fan satisfaction.

I doubt anyone turns the money down, but some fans may look back later and be glad their schools didn't make the cut if its about trying to win 9-10 games a year and still have some playoff access.