Big 12 Tourney seeding...am I wrong here?

dahliaclone

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I've been messing with the MRed bracket simulator this morning and am I wrong that even if we lose two this week I think the WORST seed we can have is the 3 seed? I think the chances of us playing as the 2 or 3 seed in the night session on Thursday is like 90% barring Houston losing to Kansas and us winning out and then we get the 1.

Am I way off?

 
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interrobang

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I've been messing with the MRed bracket simulator this morning and am I wrong that even if we lose two this week I think the WORST seed we can have is the 3 seed? I think the chances of us playing as the 2 or 3 seed in the night session on Thursday is like 90% barring Houston losing to Kansas and us winning out and then we get the 1.

Am I way off?

No we are at worst tied for 2nd. Then would be 3rd in the tourney with tiebreakers.

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CyPunch

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It's overwhelmingly likely that we're locked into that 2nd session Thursday night. And pretty likely we will be the #2 seed. Just need 1 win this week to lock that in.

Houston wins the tiebreaker in the event we tie for 1st.
 

chuckd4735

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It's overwhelmingly likely that we're locked into that 2nd session Thursday night. And pretty likely we will be the #2 seed. Just need 1 win this week to lock that in.

Houston wins the tiebreaker in the event we tie for 1st.

There is still a way for ISU to get the tiebreaker, but it would take a lot.

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Big_Sill

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It's overwhelmingly likely that we're locked into that 2nd session Thursday night. And pretty likely we will be the #2 seed. Just need 1 win this week to lock that in.

Houston wins the tiebreaker in the event we tie for 1st.
Not exactly true on the tie breakers (I think). I think if Baylor losses both games we would get the 1 seed.
 
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DSMCy

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There is still a way for ISU to get the tiebreaker, but it would take a lot.

View attachment 124919
This is the simplest scenario I could come up with. I've played around with different scenarios off of this, and I don't think any other games matter (obviously assuming ISU wins out)
Edit - Need Kansas to beat Kansas State too. Basically we need Kansas to finish in 3rd place.
Texas beats Baylor tonight
Kansas beats Houston next Saturday

Ultimately, we need ISU to win the round robin for the 3rd place team(s). If only Baylor finished 3rd, then ISU loses the tiebreaker.
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Hubbs4cy

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yeah I think there are a few really improbable routes to get to a 1 seed. Least convoluted and least probable is we win out and Houston loses out. All other scenarios involve a tie with Houston and anyone but Baylor at 3.
 

DSMCy

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How about if Houston just loses twice
It might not matter, but I don't want them to lose a #1 seed in the NCAA tourney, or give the committee any opportunity to move them down.
Would be criminal for this league to not earn a 1 seed.

Let Houston beat UCF to stay on the 1 line.
Bill Self owes ISU fans so he can beat them on Saturday.
 

Cyclonepride

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No we are at worst tied for 2nd. Then would be 3rd in the tourney with tiebreakers.

View attachment 124917

View attachment 124918
The ***** of it is, most of what is going against us winning the championship is .1 seconds in the Baylor game. Win that, and we're tied for first and quite possibly end up holding the tie breaker (not completely sure about that, and it may come down to which team finishes third).
 
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cycfan1

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It's overwhelmingly likely that we're locked into that 2nd session Thursday night. And pretty likely we will be the #2 seed. Just need 1 win this week to lock that in.

Houston wins the tiebreaker in the event we tie for 1st.

Just give me no Kansas in the session please.

I think a Baylor/Texas Tech 3/6 matchup is best we can hope for personally. And a first round matchup with Texas.
 

DSMCy

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The ***** of it is, most of what is going against us winning the championship is .1 seconds in the Baylor game. Win that, and we're tied for first and quite possibly end up holding the tie breaker (not completely sure about that, and it may come down to which team finishes third).
Lol I keep thinking about that game too

How many hundredths or tenths of a second are lost throughout a game that don't matter in the moment but if you add them up, would have given Milan just enough time to get that ball off his fingertips
 

Cyclonepride

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Lol I keep thinking about that game too

How many hundredths or tenths of a second are lost throughout a game that don't matter in the moment but if you add them up, would have given Milan just enough time to get that ball off his fingertips
No doubt, heck, even if they had added .1 more onto the clock during the review. I'm not losing any sleep over that one, but boy, what might have been
 
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Cardinal2001

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The ***** of it is, most of what is going against us winning the championship is .1 seconds in the Baylor game. Win that, and we're tied for first and quite possibly end up holding the tie breaker (not completely sure about that, and it may come down to which team finishes third).
grrrrrrrrr
 
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CoachHines3

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That 7/10 game that we will play the winner of could feature:

TCU
Cincinnati
K-State
Oklahoma
Texas

Still a chance we get the 1 seed but that would take:
TTech> Baylor
Kansas > Houston
ISU > K-State

In which case the 8/9 game could feature:
Texas
Oklahoma
BYU
TCU