Bowl Game Projections

[awd4cy]

What do you think about the committee having a long memory and being generous with TCU since they screwed them out of the Playoffs previously? If TCU wins, they are in the playoffs. And even if they lose respectfully, they are still in a NY6 bowl.

Win or lose Saturday, TCU will not be in the college football playoff. TCU will always have a hard time getting any sort of benifit with their small fan base and their difficulty selling tickets. TCU even has to win Saturday just to probably be in a NY6 bowl. But if they do win Saturday I definitely feel they deserve to be in.

 

[awd4cy]

TCU shouldn't be ranked 11th.

They should be 6/7 area with a chance to jump up into the Playoff with a win.

They're resume is just as good as anyone else that's up there.

Absolutely, unfortunately the committee doesn’t appear to look at resume too much.

 

[TheJackWePack5]

What do you think about the committee having a long memory and being generous with TCU since they screwed them out of the Playoffs previously? If TCU wins, they are in the playoffs. And even if they lose respectfully, they are still in a NY6 bowl.

TCU definitely is not making the playoff. They want every possible reason/excuse to put Alabama and/or Ohio State in....

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Absolutely, unfortunately the committee doesn’t appear to look at resume too much.

TCU in the playoff would really throw a wrench into the money grab...

 

[huntt26]

The K State game really stings. With that win, we'd be almost a sure thing for Orlando and have a shot at Alamo.

Instead our options are a Christmas bowl against Pac 12 or Memphis against a non-P5 school. Potentially have to play Memphis in their own stadium... Outside but unlikely (not impossible) to Orlando.

I'd rather see the team play a Pac 12 school, but the date is awful. Right after Christmas is just terrible. The general public has the perspective of the later you play the better the bowl. Right or wrong, playing right after Christmas makes the bowl look worse than it is. #JanuaryBowl

 

[theshadow]

Would the state of Texas and Dallas really push hard to keep TCU in the Cotton bowl even if they loose? Or does the committee decide who the other 4 bowls of the new years six will take?

PARTICIPANTS IN THE NEW YEAR’S BOWLS

Both participants in the Orange, Rose and Sugar Bowls are contracted outside the playoff arrangement (Big Ten and Pac-12 to Rose Bowl; SEC and Big 12 to Sugar Bowl; ACC to Orange Bowl against the highest ranked available team from the SEC, Big Ten and Notre Dame).

If a conference champion qualifies for the playoff, then the bowl will choose a replacement from that conference. When those bowls host the semifinals and their contracted conference champions do not qualify, then the displaced champion(s) will play in one of the other New Year’s bowls.

When not hosting semifinals, the Cotton, Fiesta and Peach Bowls will welcome displaced conference champions and the top-ranked champion from a non-contract conference. The highest-ranked available teams will fill any other berths. The selection committee will make the pairings.

 

[istater7]

I mean 0% is pretty hyperbolic. She if the Top 4 lose. You think automatically that Bama would replace TCU?

If the top 4 lost you would have Georgia, Ohio State, Miami, and Alabama all in. If USC won they might even still be ahead of TCU. I think it’s pretty fair to say that TCU will not be in the playoff.

 

[istater7]

What resume does TCU have? Wins over average to bad SMU and Arkansas teams, a road win over OSU, and a bunch of decent wins in the Big 12? Barely even competing vs OU the first time. I think everyone’s conference bias is showing.

 

[IcSyU]

So I count 9 bowl eligible SEC teams. 3 (Auburn, Bama, GA) are locked into NY6 + CFP the others are...
LSU
Miss St
S Carolina
Tx A&M
Kentucky
Missouri

The bowl structure for the SEC is in this order...

• #1 College Football Playoff. Automatic berth to one of the New Year's Six bowl games
• #2 The Citrus Bowl versus Big Ten or ACC. In years the Big Ten places a team in the Orange Bowl, the ACC will place its next selection in the Citrus Bowl after the CFB Playoff committee has made its selections for the Big Six Bowls.

Tier #1: Conference, in consultation with bowls and schools, assign teams to the following six bowls:

• The Outback Bowl versus Big Ten
• The TaxSlayer Bowl versus ACC or Big Ten
• The Music City Bowl versus ACC or Big Ten
• The Texas Bowl versus Big 12
• The Belk Bowl versus ACC
• The Liberty Bowl versus Big 12

Tier #2

• #9 The Birmingham Bowl versus American
• #10 The Independence Bowl versus ACC

So how would the SEC not send a team to the Liberty Bowl?
It would be the Birmingham Bowl and Independence Bowl that would be without SEC team. What am I missing?

Mississippi State banned themselves from postseason play.

 

[IASTATE07]

Mississippi State banned themselves from postseason play.

I believe that was Ole Miss.

 

[IcSyU]

I believe that was Ole Miss.

Good call.

 

[isufbcurt]

What resume does TCU have? Wins over average to bad SMU and Arkansas teams, a road win over OSU, and a bunch of decent wins in the Big 12? Barely even competing vs OU the first time. I think everyone’s conference bias is showing.

So it's pretty comparable to Ohio States then?

 

[istater7]

So it's pretty comparable to Ohio States then?

Pretty much. OSU’s 2 Big wins might be a little better, but the rest of the Big 10 is much weaker than the Big 12. And OSU has a worse loss.

 

[ajk4st8]

I'll take any bowl as long as we play another power 5 school.

Praying we don't play #20 Memphis in Memphis.

 

[cyfan21]

When will we know where we end up?

 

[isufbcurt]

When will we know where we end up?

Sunday after the playoffs and NY6 games are selected

 

[isu81]

What do you think about the committee having a long memory and being generous with TCU since they screwed them out of the Playoffs previously? If TCU wins, they are in the playoffs. And even if they lose respectfully, they are still in a NY6 bowl.

LOL. No way TCU goes to the playoffs if they win. And I would say 50/50 at best they would stay in the NY6 with a loss.

 

[isu81]

TCU definitely is not making the playoff. They want every possible reason/excuse to put Alabama and/or Ohio State in....

Ohio State would have a better resume if both they and TCU win. Alabama is Alabama and would get in if all of that happened.

 

[cyclonepower]

Ohio State would have a better resume if both they and TCU win. Alabama is Alabama and would get in if all of that happened.

OU’s resume may still be better than TCU’s even if they lose and no OU isn’t getting in with 2 loses

 

[CyForPresident]

What resume does TCU have? Wins over average to bad SMU and Arkansas teams, a road win over OSU, and a bunch of decent wins in the Big 12? Barely even competing vs OU the first time. I think everyone’s conference bias is showing.

It’s 10-3 TCU vs 10-2 Washington assuming OU wins. So from Sagarin...

Strength of Schedule
TCU - 46 (will go up after Saturday)
UW - 57 ( UW didn’t play USC, so a Stanford win is the only way the metric improves and even then it’ll be a small increase since UW isn’t actually playing)

Vs top 10
TCU 0-2 after Saturday
UW 0-0

Vs Top 30
TCU 2-3 after Saturday
UW 1-1

Edit:
TCU’s worst loss is to #25 Iowa State. UW’s worst loss is to #40 Arizona State

TCU deserves the last spot, I’m just not sure the committee will actually give it to them. Washington’s SOS is really really weak