Bubble Watch

NATEizKING

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Results of Lunardi's 5-8 seeds this week ahead of his latest update tomorrow:

(5) Cincy - Thurs vs Memphis
(5) SMU - Off
(5) Virginia - Lost vs Miami
(5) Wisconsin - Thrus @ Ohio State
(6) Notre Dame - Off
(6) Saint Mary's - Thurs @ Pepperdine
(6) Maryland - Lost vs Minnesota
(6) Creighton - Lost vs Providence
(7) Xavier - Lost @ Seton Hall
(7) OK State - Won @ Kansas State
(7) ISU - Won @ Texas Tech
(7) South Carolina - Lost @ Florida
(8) VCU - Won vs Saint Louis
(8) Northwestern - Lost @ Illinois
(8) Minnesota - Won @ Maryland
(8) Dayton - Won vs George Mason

A lot of teams on the 6/7 line losing already this week. Certainly helps us to move in the right direction.
Beat Baylor and we'd have the best week of any team in that range.
 

cyclones500

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Not much action on bubble watch after 2-23.

MIchigan State remained afloat.

Alabama apparently prefers NIT, losing at home to Georgia. The yuckier half of this is, Georgia somehow still has outer-limits bubble possibility. Eee-gads.
 

Bigman38

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A Johnny Orr reference today

Historically speaking, being four games under .500 in your conference all but ensures a sad Selection Sunday. The last time a team managed otherwise was in 1998, when Florida State snuck into the field with a 6-10 record in the ACC. Before that, one had to go back to the 1992 Iowa State Cyclones, coached by Johnny Orr, who got in with a 5-9 mark in the Big Eight.
 

madguy30

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Can we just call this thread 'ISU seeding watch' since that's the main point, and they're not on the bubble?
 

Clonefan32

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I get the whole "lock" thing but seriously, a Big 12 team with 10 conference wins is not getting left out of the tourney.

I get the point of the article, but I'm pretty sure we could lose our remaining 3 games, lose in the first round of the Big 12 tournament, and still get in. That's as "lock" as lock can be.

P.S. Let's not do that.
 

knowlesjam

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I would argue that the Iowa State team in '92 and Florida State team of '98 were only let in because the mid-major field was weak...similar to this year. It happens...the next 2+ weeks will sort it out on all of the tourney wanabees. But, I do agree that Clemson and Pitt are silly. 4-11 in conference play..c'mon man!
 

laminak

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I would argue that the Iowa State team in '92 and Florida State team of '98 were only let in because the mid-major field was weak...similar to this year. It happens...the next 2+ weeks will sort it out on all of the tourney wanabees. But, I do agree that Clemson and Pitt are silly. 4-11 in conference play..c'mon man!

Generally Johnny teams won a game or two in Kansas City to help them get into the tourney. That year it looked like ISU knocked off a ranked Mizzou in the first round of the Big 8 tourney.
 
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cyclone19702

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Didn't see anyone mention Vanderbelt being on the bubble. If they win out they will be in but have to play at Kentucky and Florida at home. Not a bad loss for us.
 

cyclones500

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I cant take this bubble watch seriously until they get rid of Pitt and Clemson, at some point you have to win basketball games. I mean, whats the cutoff now for conference losses, 12,13 losses in conference play?

Yeah, it's getting ridiculous. I'd add Wake to that list, I've been saying it for weeks: How many damn chances do you need to get a quality win?

Each season, numerous people say, "The bubble is really weak this year," and I tend to respond, "The bubble is always weak. It's the bubble." But 2017 bubble seems horribly diluted, I'm not sure I remember this many teams still remaining in the picture, then taking turns to play their way out.

Lack of sub-power conference teams having resumes of contention makes it even more extreme (at least how the big-league teams' records look, on paper). The way it's trending, we may see some out-of-left-field mid-majors getting invitations simply because they managed to not suck ... Houston, perhaps, or teams in 1-bid leagues that botch the auto-bid, but have decent RPI numbers (MTSU, Nevada, maybe UNCW).
 

Cyclonepride

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Didn't see anyone mention Vanderbelt being on the bubble. If they win out they will be in but have to play at Kentucky and Florida at home. Not a bad loss for us.

*not as bad as it looked. Symptomatic of our style of play earlier in the year. Playing like we are now, we should have won by 10-15 points.
 
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NoCreativity

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Yeah, it's getting ridiculous. I'd add Wake to that list, I've been saying it for weeks: How many damn chances do you need to get a quality win?

Each season, numerous people say, "The bubble is really weak this year," and I tend to respond, "The bubble is always weak. It's the bubble." But 2017 bubble seems horribly diluted, I'm not sure I remember this many teams still remaining in the picture, then taking turns to play their way out.

Lack of sub-power conference teams having resumes of contention makes it even more extreme (at least how the big-league teams' records look, on paper). The way it's trending, we may see some out-of-left-field mid-majors getting invitations simply because they managed to not suck ... Houston, perhaps, or teams in 1-bid leagues that botch the auto-bid, but have decent RPI numbers (MTSU, Nevada, maybe UNCW).

Yeah, I agree, I was looking at Wake Forest also, they really havent beaten anybody except Miami at home. I just dont see how they can be a tourney team, the unbalanced schedules in leagues like this can really make teams appear better than they are.

I wouldnt mind seeing both Illinois State and Wichita State both get at-large bids. Honestly, if they went back to 65 teams I wouldnt lose any sleep over it. It seems like every year it gets more diluted, especially with these mega-conferences now.
 

cyclones500

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I wouldnt mind seeing both Illinois State and Wichita State both get at-large bids.

The way it's going, unless either of those teams stumble into a terrible loss before the semifinal of Valley tournament, they're as good as locks. WSU has one of those "no bad losses" teams that otherwise has almost no bulk to the profile.
 

NoCreativity

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The way it's going, unless either of those teams stumble into a terrible loss before the semifinal of Valley tournament, they're as good as locks. WSU has one of those "no bad losses" teams that otherwise has almost no bulk to the profile.

Yeah, hopefully they both get in. Wichita State is absolutely destroying everyone in The Valley this year which should at least count for something, even if the conference isnt very good.
 

CoKane

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Man, looking at some of these teams on the bubble this year is making me pretty happy I haven't had time to do bracketology yet. Once I finally get going I might have to get creative to find some teams comfortable rounding out the bottom of the field with because I really don't want to declare someone like a 14-13 Clemson team tournament as nearly in the tournament.
 
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