Close losses

[NoCreativity]

We simply not a very good football team. Our losses are the result of less talent and poor coaching. It has nothing to do with the officiating!

Have you watched the rest of the Big 12? We are no better and no worse than any of the other 9 teams in the conference.

We just aren't getting it done, blame the offense, special teams, whatever, but you can't sit there and watch us against the rest of the conference and way we are a bad team.

 

[cyclones500]

Looks like it was posted prior to our game with Texas.

Good catch. I had given an Agree to qwerty post, but didn't check the math. Wonder if there is an updated version?

 

[Jer]

Have you watched the rest of the Big 12? We are no better and no worse than any of the other 9 teams in the conference.

We just aren't getting it done, blame the offense, special teams, whatever, but you can't sit there and watch us against the rest of the conference and way we are a bad team.

I understand there are legitimate arguments as to why we’re 0-4 in the league, but those things are all part of the game. You absolutely cannot say we’re “no worse than any of the other 9 teams in the conference” (your exact words) when we’re 0-4. We might not be “bad” but every aspect of football goes into if you win or lose, which then says if you are better or worse than other teams – that’s the whole point of tracking wins and losses.

Yes, we might have an elite Defense, but if our Offense is average or worse and our Special Teams is average or worse – we are worse than those we lost to. It’s just like the stupid argument that people make all the time of “oh I’m so sick of us being the better team and losing”. No, the better team wins. The better team can overcome one or more parts of their team being average or worse. The better team wins in the margins. Etc. There may be other forces at play, but that has been the case for 100+ years.

That doesn’t mean we’re bad or you shouldn’t be excited about the future. But to say our record is 0-4 but we’re not worse than anybody isn’t correct.

 

[NoCreativity]

I understand there are legitimate arguments as to why we’re 0-4 in the league, but those things are all part of the game. You absolutely cannot say we’re “no worse than any of the other 9 teams in the conference” (your exact words) when we’re 0-4. We might not be “bad” but every aspect of football goes into if you win or lose, which then says if you are better or worse than other teams – that’s the whole point of tracking wins and losses.

Yes, we might have an elite Defense, but if our Offense is average or worse and our Special Teams is average or worse – we are worse than those we lost to. It’s just like the stupid argument that people make all the time of “oh I’m so sick of us being the better team and losing”. No, the better team wins. The better team can overcome one or more parts of their team being average or worse. The better team wins in the margins. Etc. There may be other forces at play, but that has been the case for 100+ years.

That doesn’t mean we’re bad or you shouldn’t be excited about the future. But to say our record is 0-4 but we’re not worse than anybody is the absolute worst argument I think I’ve ever seen.

We lost 2 games due to biased officiating, another one because we couldn't make a simple field goal, and another by 1 point because we couldn't even get in fg range.

I get "you ate what your record says you are" but there is no way you can watch the rest of the league and say we are the worst team in the Big 12. I can go at every conference and clearly see teams like Rutgers, Colorado, Vanderbilt, NW, are extremely bad at football, you can't say that about ISU.

 

[Jer]

Understand but field goals are part of the game, no?

Not trying to start a fight and probably should have been more diplomatic in my earlier post. I don’t think we’re bad, and certainly look better than those teams you listed, but I’m a big believer in scores are all that matter at the end of the season.

 

[Jer]

We lost 2 games due to biased officiating, another one because we couldn't make a simple field goal, and another by 1 point because we couldn't even get in fg range.

I get "you ate what your record says you are" but there is no way you can watch the rest of the league and say we are the worst team in the Big 12. I can go at every conference and clearly see teams like Rutgers, Colorado, Vanderbilt, NW, are extremely bad at football, you can't say that about ISU.

Sorry again for being a bit aggressive on my prior posts(s), been both a long season and long hours for work.

 

[gordocyclone]

We are 0-4 in Big 12 play. So far the only thing we can say is that we are not very good team to this point. Now, many say because of the bad offense and special teams were not doing very well. Well isn't the offense and special teams part of a team? CMC preaches we need to win the margins. Clearly, that is not being done.

 

[CapnCy]

Have you watched the rest of the Big 12? We are no better and no worse than any of the other 9 teams in the conference.

We just aren't getting it done, blame the offense, special teams, whatever, but you can't sit there and watch us against the rest of the conference and way we are a bad team.

Yeah.....hope we can get three more to get a bowl.

What's wild is you'd think we'd at least get 1-2 of these close ones (literally a play or two either way). In other years if we missed a championship game by one game, I'd be stewing over "that one play" but this year unfortunately been several games like that.

But to your point, normally the last place team would have a "Kansas of old" vibe, but us being in last I have full confidence we COULD beat any team (and we have 4 recent examples of how close we were given one play or two swing).

 

[ZRF]

Matt Campbell is the best coach at ISU in my lifetime of watching the Clones (1982 to today). He might not bring in 4 & 5 star guys, but very few times in the last 3-4 years have I felt we were physically over matched. That says a lot because the Clones have played elite programs like Texas, Oklahoma, Notre Dame & Clemson in recent years.

But, he is a grind it out coach whose teams are naturally going to play close games against other P5 teams. The only problem with this philosophy is there are a few areas that ISU has been consistently deficient during his tenure: special teams and o-line play.

The other area that indirectly becomes an issue is our defense. As solid as the defense has been under Heacock, the 3-3-5 doesn't create a lot of stress on opposing quarterbacks. This year we are:

• 95th among 131 D1 teams averaging 5.0 TFL/game
• 103rd averaging 1.57 sacks/game.
• 87th with 4 interceptions

This.

You can have a good defense, even a great one, but inhibit your overall results due to refusing to take a healthy amount of risks (blitzes, utilizing more 4 man fronts/2 LB sets). We are EXTREMELY weak and unathletic at linebacker and the lack of big plays is partially a byproduct of that. Reeder has occasionally blown up plays but none of our other linebackers show that ability.

In general I think this team is way too conservative. And when the decision isn't conservative, the way in which we go about doing it (relative to our offense). Fourth down decisions and play calling is another prime example of our conservative mindset. We don't go when we should and when we do we turn a 4th in six inches into 4 and 5 as we snap the ball 5 yards into the backfield.

 

[shadow]

Posted in another thread. Looking at 2017-2022 comparing Iowa State to Iowa in close games (7 pts or less) because that is when LeVar Woods became Iowa's special teams coordinator.

Iowa State is 15-21 (42%); Iowa is 15-14 (52%).

ISU
2017: 3-4
2018: 3-2
2019: 2-4
2020: 4-2
2021: 2-5
2022: 1-4

Iowa
2017: 3-3
2018: 2-3
2019: 4-3
2020: 1-2
2021: 4-1
2022: 1-2

 

[ZRF]

I can't agree with this...we will have held both KU & KSU to their lowest point totals by the end of the season and maybe UT (excepting Alabama). The defense is legit. Special Teams is not very good and could have been the difference in the three games I've mentioned. The offense is kind of who I thought they were (no Denny Green)...

Good football teams don't beat themselves routinely, something that has been a massive problem under Campbell's tenure.

In close games things like play selection, special teams, and clock/timeout management are critical and we are deplorable in all 3. The other big issue is we don't cause enough disruption at the line of scrimmage on either side of the ball. On defense I think that's a byproduct of an ultra conservative system and an extremely weak linebacking core. On offense our offense line has possibly been the biggest disappointment two years in a row. The latter doesn't drive the oppotions upfield on running plays, and lacks the agility and technique to protect the edge (though our protection schemes leave much to be desired).

This team has "outplayed" Texas, KU, and Iowa by a fairly healthy margin yet the above factors made the Iowa game much closer than it should have been, and created losses in the other two. We were fortunate the KSU game was as close as it was as they physically dominated us in the second half.

Campbell has been great for this program in a lot of ways and I'm glad he's been our coach. With that said, it's time for him to fix some of the rampant problems that are well within his ability to do so. Want to keep losing close games? He can keep ignoring STs as a priority, keep Manning and the poorly designed offense, and keep showing an inability to manage the clock/TOs. It's time for some (much needed) change.

 

[shadow]

Posted in another thread. Looking at 2017-2022 comparing Iowa State to Iowa in close games (7 pts or less) because that is when LeVar Woods became Iowa's special teams coordinator.

Iowa State is 15-21 (42%); Iowa is 15-14 (52%).

ISU
2017: 3-4
2018: 3-2
2019: 2-4
2020: 4-2
2021: 2-5
2022: 1-4

Iowa
2017: 3-3
2018: 2-3
2019: 4-3
2020: 1-2
2021: 4-1
2022: 1-2

For reference, Alabama is 9-4 in one score games from 2017-2022 (69% winning %).
2017: 2-0
2018: 1-0
2019: 0-2
2020: 0-0
2021: 4-1
2022: 2-1

 

[loyalsons4evertrue]

I can't agree with this...we will have held both KU & KSU to their lowest point totals by the end of the season and maybe UT (excepting Alabama). The defense is legit. Special Teams is not very good and could have been the difference in the three games I've mentioned. The offense is kind of who I thought they were (no Denny Green)...

and you can make a very valid argument that if Ewers played the entire Bama game, Texas most likely wins and they score in the 40s

 

[loyalsons4evertrue]

We lost 2 games due to biased officiating, another one because we couldn't make a simple field goal, and another by 1 point because we couldn't even get in fg range.

I get "you ate what your record says you are" but there is no way you can watch the rest of the league and say we are the worst team in the Big 12. I can go at every conference and clearly see teams like Rutgers, Colorado, Vanderbilt, NW, are extremely bad at football, you can't say that about ISU.

look I'm a huge Cyclone homer, but aside from the no targeting no call against Texas, we had every opportunity to win that game aside from the refs. We turned it over deep in the redzone, missed a FG, X while torching UT's defense, dropped the most critical pass in the game, and Dekkers ended up fumbling there at the end. Plenty of opportunities to win on Saturday and we couldn't get it done.

K-State game, our offense was anemic and probably the worst offensive output in years at Iowa State. Kansas, offense again was anemic and we missed 3 FG's. Baylor I don't really understand as they've looked less than impressive since

 

[Statefan10]

We’re not a bad team but we are what our record says we are. Fact of the matter is we’re a few plays away from being 6-1 and also a couple plays away from being 2-4.

Our worse loss may be Baylor who gets KU at home this week. If Baylor loses (I don’t think they will), they’ll also be 3-4. The league is weirdly strong this year. No bad or terrible teams but no great teams either.

 

[20eyes]

Good football teams don't beat themselves routinely, something that has been a massive problem under Campbell's tenure.

In close games things like play selection, special teams, and clock/timeout management are critical and we are deplorable in all 3. The other big issue is we don't cause enough disruption at the line of scrimmage on either side of the ball. On defense I think that's a byproduct of an ultra conservative system and an extremely weak linebacking core. On offense our offense line has possibly been the biggest disappointment two years in a row. The latter doesn't drive the oppotions upfield on running plays, and lacks the agility and technique to protect the edge (though our protection schemes leave much to be desired).

I guess I'm not picky about what's wrong with the defense considering they've been more stout against KU, KSU, and UT* than any of the other teams they've faced and will likely face. It seems like a pretty big ask to keep KU below 11 points, KSU below 7 points, and UT below 21 points. I don't disagree with anything you've said but I think even Bill Parcells would agree that a finger should be pointing at special teams and the offense (and not the defense) for this particular football team...

 

[LanningIsBakersDaddy]

The close loss trend is concerning, but realistically it was a lot more shocking last season. That was such an experienced group, and you would expect a team that has been there before to win close ones.

We have a first year starting QB with tons of young guys playing crucial positions. Not exactly the recipe for success in close games. You just hope the guys use those experiences in tight games so far to win some games to finish the season and really put it together next year.

 

[besserheimerphat]

For reference, Alabama is 9-4 in one score games from 2017-2022 (69% winning %).
2017: 2-0
2018: 1-0
2019: 0-2
2020: 0-0
2021: 4-1
2022: 2-1

Posted in another thread. Looking at 2017-2022 comparing Iowa State to Iowa in close games (7 pts or less) because that is when LeVar Woods became Iowa's special teams coordinator.

Iowa State is 15-21 (42%); Iowa is 15-14 (52%).

ISU
2017: 3-4
2018: 3-2
2019: 2-4
2020: 4-2
2021: 2-5
2022: 1-4

Iowa
2017: 3-3
2018: 2-3
2019: 4-3
2020: 1-2
2021: 4-1
2022: 1-2

Neither Iowa or Bama are statistically significantly different than ISU at the 95% significance level. Though Bama is statistically significantly better at 90% significance. I'm not disagreeing with your point, but people need more than just W-L data to draw any conclusions.

 

[mkadl]

Yeah.....hope we can get three more to get a bowl.

What's wild is you'd think we'd at least get 1-2 of these close ones (literally a play or two either way). In other years if we missed a championship game by one game, I'd be stewing over "that one play" but this year unfortunately been several games like that.

But to your point, normally the last place team would have a "Kansas of old" vibe, but us being in last I have full confidence we COULD beat any team (and we have 4 recent examples of how close we were given one play or two swing).

I don't think ISU is being overlooked by any opponent. You didn't say that but you made me think it. That is a positive.

 

[DarkStar]

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