If defense makes better halftime adjustments, let the offense have the additional possession in the first half. That’s one less possession against ISU’s uncorrected defense and one more possession against ISU’s adjusted defense. Or am I crazy here?
Don’t defer kickoffs
- Thread starter hoosman
- Start date
Deferring is my preference. The chance to get two possessions in a row can't be beat!
The potential extra possession in the 2H is likely worth more. Plus the momentum of getting the ball first in the second half.
Also, by the same logic, we're more of a 2H team offensively. Against p5 competition our 2H offense is beating our 1H offense 99-50. So if there's a half to get an extra possession that's the better one for our offense.
Also, by the same logic, we're more of a 2H team offensively. Against p5 competition our 2H offense is beating our 1H offense 99-50. So if there's a half to get an extra possession that's the better one for our offense.
Counterpoint, if offense can have a long, steady scoring drive, or a quick strike attack, the opponent is already one step closer to playing catch up throwing into the strength
A valid take, but this is my view.
Under Heacock/Campbell, Cyclones will always play the base 3-3-5 on the opening possession and see what the opponent does/can do. Many times that has resulted in points given up, or bad opening field position for the offense. But then, the adjustments are made, and made rather quickly to the credit of the coaches and players.
So I would rather get this learning done sooner by deferring and have the 2H kickoff.
Under Heacock/Campbell, Cyclones will always play the base 3-3-5 on the opening possession and see what the opponent does/can do. Many times that has resulted in points given up, or bad opening field position for the offense. But then, the adjustments are made, and made rather quickly to the credit of the coaches and players.
So I would rather get this learning done sooner by deferring and have the 2H kickoff.
The analytics on doubling up possessions on either side of the half are pretty powerful to ignore. It’s been awhile since I read this so I don’t remember the exact numbers but a team that possesses the ball at the end of the first half and the opening possession of the second win over 70% of NFL games. That’s whether they score on both of those possessions or not. If they score on them both the win percentage goes way up.
I’m sure it’s not quite as high a win percentage for P4 games but I bet it’s close.
I’m sure it’s not quite as high a win percentage for P4 games but I bet it’s close.
You would think that somewhere, someone has compiled the stats on winning record between taking the ball and deferring, but I'm not finding any stats. Scoring first is a significant advantage. It would seem logical to me, that of all possessions of the game, the very first drive is most likely to be out of sync for an offense.
Alot of teams come out with a scripted first drive. I assume we do the same, but maybe not because we don't score on the first drive often.
Agree, whether we kick or receive opponent is probably going to score on their opening drive. So if we don’t score after receiving not only are we in a hole but likely get one less possession in the second half.
So if I get your meaning, you say we play football like Rocky: take a lot of punches but gut it out in the end? If so, the bye week came at a good time to sober up after being punch drunk winners.
I’m just saying we’re going to give up a td on their opening drive so we might as well save more opportunities for the second halfSo if I get your meaning, you say we play football like Rocky: take a lot of punches but gut it out in the end? If so, the bye week came at a good time to sober up after being punch drunk winners.
This is actually valid analysis considering Heacock's methods. The point to his delaying major adjustments is to prevent the opposing staff to implement effective adjustments to the adjustments at half time.
I like deferring. I don’t like the coaching staff going full turtle mid second quarter to get to halftime (which had been less this year than previous years).
Q1 21 points given up on opening drives
Q3 14 points given up on opening drives
35 out of total 48 defensive points given up on opening drives. A large proportion. (Subtracting 2 UCF pick 6’s).
