ESPN, Fox Open Discussions for Next Big 12 Deal

[CascadeClone]

They can invite them all they want. I’m sure SEC or Big 10 would love to have them and Clemson would love to go there.

But if Texas and ESPN don’t have the cash to get UT out early there’s no way anybody is ponying up to get Clemson moved.

Agree no one can "break" a GoR. But it could potentially be "cancelled".

If a majority of teams vote to dissolve the conference, thus cancelling the GoR. Remember, that is what ESPN tried to do to the Big12 - scare a few teams into bailing for the "safety" of the AAC and voting with OuT to disband the Big12. Luckily everyone realized that the "safety" was no better than the worst-case scenario, so they locked arms and stuck together.

Most think the B1G/Fox would be happy to grab a few of the ACC to expand (let's say 4). And if ESPN got nervous, and/or mathed out that paying 4 teams $80M each is better than paying 14 teams $30M each... it could happen.

I'd guess the odds of it happening are like 10% in the next couple years, but as the GoR end gets closer those odds go up as everyone has more to lose.

 

[Stormin]

Agree no one can "break" a GoR. But it could potentially be "cancelled".

If a majority of teams vote to dissolve the conference, thus cancelling the GoR. Remember, that is what ESPN tried to do to the Big12 - scare a few teams into bailing for the "safety" of the AAC and voting with OuT to disband the Big12. Luckily everyone realized that the "safety" was no better than the worst-case scenario, so they locked arms and stuck together.

Most think the B1G/Fox would be happy to grab a few of the ACC to expand (let's say 4). And if ESPN got nervous, and/or mathed out that paying 4 teams $80M each is better than paying 14 teams $30M each... it could happen.

I'd guess the odds of it happening are like 10% in the next couple years, but as the GoR end gets closer those odds go up as everyone has more to lose.

Those 4 teams do not provide the game inventory of the 14. Not many slots.

 

[AuH2O]

Agree no one can "break" a GoR. But it could potentially be "cancelled".

If a majority of teams vote to dissolve the conference, thus cancelling the GoR. Remember, that is what ESPN tried to do to the Big12 - scare a few teams into bailing for the "safety" of the AAC and voting with OuT to disband the Big12. Luckily everyone realized that the "safety" was no better than the worst-case scenario, so they locked arms and stuck together.

Most think the B1G/Fox would be happy to grab a few of the ACC to expand (let's say 4). And if ESPN got nervous, and/or mathed out that paying 4 teams $80M each is better than paying 14 teams $30M each... it could happen.

I'd guess the odds of it happening are like 10% in the next couple years, but as the GoR end gets closer those odds go up as everyone has more to lose.

The problem with the ACC dissolving is that most likely it would mean some teams going to the Big 10, some going to the SEC, and maybe some going to the Big 12.

That all sounds great in theory, but it would take a few teams being the first to jump. They can't do it due to GoR. They would need assurance that the league would dissolve. There is no team remotely close to being able to afford it anywhere, let alone in the ACC. None of these teams are valuable enough for a TV partner to pony up the cash, so, that's out. No one is going to jump for years without knowing the league is going to dissolve.

So how do they assure that?

A bunch of teams going to different leagues would have to all have a wink and a nod agreement with their landing spot leagues, all work together that they are going to vote to dissolve the league. That seems like it will be ripe for a long legal battle, as it would be the death of any of the teams left behind. You'd have different leagues, probably TV partners, and all these schools essentially all in the know, working in concert to get a league dissolved. Considering ACC GoR, it will not be a league just inviting teams. They know they need to dissolve the league to bring anybody over.

 

[Kinch]

The only thing I want to know in this whole TV deal: Is it true that BF is Jimbo Fisher's new OC? Talk about the flight of the great pumpkin.

 

[CascadeClone]

So how do they assure that?

Collusion, conspiracy, and cooperation between at least 8 teams, ESECSPN, and B1G/Fox.

Like I said, low %, but IF it happened early, that is how it would happen.

 

[Gorm]

There is no risk of teams braking out of a GOR. People keep bringing up like it is something that could realistically happen. It has yet to happen as we just saw with OUT. These contracts are rock solid and the ACC’s is notoriously iron clad

I'd be careful saying that its impossible for teams breaking out of a GOR. The issue has never seen a court room, there is no percent for what might occur.

 

[BryceC]

If a majority of teams vote to dissolve the conference, thus cancelling the GoR.

No.

 

[Gonzo]

The problem with the ACC dissolving is that most likely it would mean some teams going to the Big 10, some going to the SEC, and maybe some going to the Big 12.

That all sounds great in theory, but it would take a few teams being the first to jump. They can't do it due to GoR. They would need assurance that the league would dissolve. There is no team remotely close to being able to afford it anywhere, let alone in the ACC. None of these teams are valuable enough for a TV partner to pony up the cash, so, that's out. No one is going to jump for years without knowing the league is going to dissolve.

So how do they assure that?

A bunch of teams going to different leagues would have to all have a wink and a nod agreement with their landing spot leagues, all work together that they are going to vote to dissolve the league. That seems like it will be ripe for a long legal battle, as it would be the death of any of the teams left behind. You'd have different leagues, probably TV partners, and all these schools essentially all in the know, working in concert to get a league dissolved. Considering ACC GoR, it will not be a league just inviting teams. They know they need to dissolve the league to bring anybody over.

Agree, the only chance at anyone leaving is if they get close enough to the end of the GoR that a buyout becomes worth it to another conference and/or networks.

I think the ACC is in the worst spot of any. It's the most target rich conference out there for both the B1G and SEC. Yes it's a ways off but I don't see how an ACC survives once the GoR is expired. Clemson, Miami, FSU at the very least could get poached by the SEC. The B1G would love to add UNC, UVA, maybe even Duke and GT. After that there's just nothing left for the ACC to survive with anywhere from five to seven of its top brands/programs gone.

The smartest and most proactive move for the ACC in my opinion would be to try some kind of merge with the PAC. Ideally that would include ND, but realistically those chances are very slim. Still, the geographic disparity is going to continue mattering less in conference realignment. Bringing together programs/brands like Clemson, UNC, Duke, FSU, Miami with Oregon, Washington, Utah, Stanford could be interesting to networks. Clemson and Oregon make a pretty good pair of football flagships along with the potential of FSU, Washington, Stanford, and Miami to find some kind of resurgence. There'd also be a pretty seamless cultural fit in terms of academics and coastal snootiness. Call it the Pacific Atlantic Coastal Conference (PACC).

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I'd be careful saying that its impossible for teams breaking out of a GOR. The issue has never seen a court room, there is no percent for what might occur.

The reason it hasn’t seen a courtroom is becuase schools don’t want to go to court for a case they know they are going to lose. Could something happen closer to 2030? Sure. But even OUT couldn’t figure a way to leave the Big12 and texas has more resources then just about anyone.

 

[Cydwinder]

I don’t think breaking the ACC GOR is realistic, but I could easily see a team like Clemson or Florida State looking for a new conference starting in 2030, knowing full well they won’t leave until 2036. The realignment agreements don’t necessarily have to be right at the end of the GOR

 

[ISU85]

The reason it hasn’t seen a courtroom is becuase schools don’t want to go to court for a case they know they are going to lose. Could something happen closer to 2030? Sure. But even OUT couldn’t figure a way to leave the Big12 and texas has more resources then just about anyone.

The silence from Texas really is deafening here. Their lawyers have had over a year and haven't come up with anything, plus they don't care about ruining their relationship with the Big 12. Clemson on the other hand would have to care about ruining their relationship with the ACC if their lawyers tried and failed to get out.

 

[CloneJD]

No.

Not quite that simple. If the conference is dissolved the GOR would be divided up amongst conference members on a pro rata basis.

 

[Gorm]

The reason it hasn’t seen a courtroom is becuase schools don’t want to go to court for a case they know they are going to lose. Could something happen closer to 2030? Sure. But even OUT couldn’t figure a way to leave the Big12 and texas has more resources then just about anyone.

Maybe...maybe not. I've seen some pretty interesting legal theories out there on how to get out of those agreements. However, I don't believe any of them have been tried in court.

Its going to get tested at some point. Its just a question of who that school is.

In reality, it is the TV networks making the decisions here. If ESPN wanted Texas in their conference next season, it would have happened.

 

[BryceC]

Not quite that simple. If the conference is dissolved the GOR would be divided up amongst conference members on a pro rata basis.

That's the point. It won't dissolve and most conferences require every member to vote to dissolve it.

 

[CloneJD]

That's the point. It won't dissolve and most conferences require every member to vote to dissolve it.

In theory the ACC could dissolve early if everyone had a good home or was paid off financially. That would allow them to capture more revenue in other conferences before the GOR actually expires. That would require everyone to be a rational financial actor and is unlikely.

 

[CascadeClone]

That's the point. It won't dissolve and most conferences require every member to vote to dissolve it.

I thought earlier this summer it was discovered the ACC only needed a simply majority i.e. 8 to dissolve.

If that's wrong, and it needs to be unanimous, then yeah, I agree, the GoR is good for full term. Someone like BC is NEVER going to vote to self-immolate.

 

[BryceC]

I thought earlier this summer it was discovered the ACC only needed a simply majority i.e. 8 to dissolve.

If that's wrong, and it needs to be unanimous, then yeah, I agree, the GoR is good for full term. Someone like BC is NEVER going to vote to self-immolate.

You're right, I'm wrong. ACC is less than other conferences. You'd need 8 schools. Even then though, I'm not sure it'd be easy to get there. I think only four schools would be able to get an invite to the Big 2: FSU, Clemson, UNC, Virginia.

Everybody else would be looking at Big 12 or even dropping down. I don't see schools agreeing to even go Big 12, because they'll have all the leverage on the schools wanting to leave. They'll likely be able to extort those schools for more money as they want to leave which would strengthen the deal for the remaining schools. Either way I find it very unlikely.

 

[CascadeClone]

You're right, I'm wrong. ACC is less than other conferences. You'd need 8 schools. Even then though, I'm not sure it'd be easy to get there. I think only four schools would be able to get an invite to the Big 2: FSU, Clemson, UNC, Virginia.

Everybody else would be looking at Big 12 or even dropping down. I don't see schools agreeing to even go Big 12, because they'll have all the leverage on the schools wanting to leave. They'll likely be able to extort those schools for more money as they want to leave which would strengthen the deal for the remaining schools. Either way I find it very unlikely.

Agree it will be very unlikely.

IF B1G added 2-3 more P10 schools, and thought they could force ND's hand by adding 4 more ACC teams... they could want UNC, UVa, and pick 2 of Duke, Pitt, GT, Miami, or even BC (tv market). SEC would want FSU, Clemson, Miami, and pick one of NCSt, VT, or leftovers above.

It would really be about if the B1G (Fox) wants to go to 24, and if the SEC (ESPN) wants to match them, to make it happen before the GoR expires.

 

[RustShack]

Maybe...maybe not. I've seen some pretty interesting legal theories out there on how to get out of those agreements. However, I don't believe any of them have been tried in court.

Its going to get tested at some point. Its just a question of who that school is.

In reality, it is the TV networks making the decisions here. If ESPN wanted Texas in their conference next season, it would have happened.

ESPN does want Texas and Oklahoma the year they take over the SEC/the year USC UCLA join the B1G. Just can’t get around the GoR and haven’t come to an agreement with the Big12 to let them out early.

 

[simply1]

Agree, the only chance at anyone leaving is if they get close enough to the end of the GoR that a buyout becomes worth it to another conference and/or networks.

I think the ACC is in the worst spot of any. It's the most target rich conference out there for both the B1G and SEC. Yes it's a ways off but I don't see how an ACC survives once the GoR is expired. Clemson, Miami, FSU at the very least could get poached by the SEC. The B1G would love to add UNC, UVA, maybe even Duke and GT. After that there's just nothing left for the ACC to survive with anywhere from five to seven of its top brands/programs gone.

The smartest and most proactive move for the ACC in my opinion would be to try some kind of merge with the PAC. Ideally that would include ND, but realistically those chances are very slim. Still, the geographic disparity is going to continue mattering less in conference realignment. Bringing together programs/brands like Clemson, UNC, Duke, FSU, Miami with Oregon, Washington, Utah, Stanford could be interesting to networks. Clemson and Oregon make a pretty good pair of football flagships along with the potential of FSU, Washington, Stanford, and Miami to find some kind of resurgence. There'd also be a pretty seamless cultural fit in terms of academics and coastal snootiness. Call it the Pacific Atlantic Coastal Conference (PACC).

Any kind of merger talk opens the door to exit the conference I’d think, as far as handing gor.