Something, I don't understand is how people are so high on both the DL and OL after the Spring Game. If the DL got a lot of ressure, then the OL was not doing a good job. I actually see the DL pressure inthe spring game as a bad sign of our OL more than anything.
I think we go bowling this year...
- Thread starter vmbplayer
- Start date
Here is what I think has to happen in order for us to be playing after the last Saturday in November.
We must beat:
UNI
UCONN
Baylor
Kansas
KSU
If we can do these things I like our chances. Iowa has one of the more beatable teams in CPR's time here at least on paper. The players got the Texas monkey off of their back last year as well as TTU.
If we can beat one of these teams IA,UT, TTU or MU then we are bowling. If not we have to steal one from one of the tougher teams like ATM, OSU or OK.
ATM is probably the most likely of the latter three and could easily be switched with MU in the previously mentioned group.
Either way I think that we have a good shot at a bowl. Probably a low teir but I will come out and say that I expect us to play in December and if this happens you can bet your sweet *** I will be there.
We must beat:
UNI
UCONN
Baylor
Kansas
KSU
If we can do these things I like our chances. Iowa has one of the more beatable teams in CPR's time here at least on paper. The players got the Texas monkey off of their back last year as well as TTU.
If we can beat one of these teams IA,UT, TTU or MU then we are bowling. If not we have to steal one from one of the tougher teams like ATM, OSU or OK.
ATM is probably the most likely of the latter three and could easily be switched with MU in the previously mentioned group.
Either way I think that we have a good shot at a bowl. Probably a low teir but I will come out and say that I expect us to play in December and if this happens you can bet your sweet *** I will be there.
I think Mizzou and Tech will be more winnable than Iowa. We haven't looked like we belonged on the same field as Iowa the last two years and they're coming in without high expectations and that usually means they're going to be good.
Isn't Texas a&m going to be ranked like #10 preseason? I think I might have even saw them higher...
What defense do you think goes over this years since 2001? I'm not saying they are NFL caliber.
Recap of games giving up 5 TDs or more
-The 2001 Team gave up 28 points to Ohio (not 5 TDs or more, but OHIO), 48 to Neb, 42 to KSU, 40 to CU
-The '02 Team gave up 38 to FSU, 49 to OU, 35 Mizzou, 58 to KSU, 41 to CU, 37 Uconn
-The '03 Team gave up more than 40 or more points 7 games
-The '04 team gave up 41 to Northern Illinois, 36 to OSU
-The '05 Team Never gave up more than 30 They are probably the best bet to be considered better
-The '06 team 43 to Toledo, 37 to Texas, 42 to Tech, 41 to Kansas
-The '07 team 36 to Toledo, 35 to Nebby, 42 to TT, 56 to Texas, 42 to Mizzou, 45 to Kansas
-The '08 Team 35 to Kansas, 38 to Baylor, 35 to Neb, 49 to AnM, 59 OSU, 52 Mizzou
-The '09 Team 35 to Iowa, 41 to Kansas, 35 to AnM
-The '10 Team 35 to Iowa, 38 to Tech, 68 to Utah, 52 to OU
'04 and '05 are the only years that the Defense matched how well Wally coached Ds have done. And they had much better offenses in '04 and '05 that kept the D off the field when compared to '09 and '10. All we have lost from last year to speak of on D is Safety.
Edit: The '04 and '05 teams also played the easier rotation for South teams.
So you can argue that this year isn't the best in the last Decade, but it's far from crazy IMO.
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05' defense was better and I would say the same for 04'. Skladany runs a bend don't break defense so it comes down to points per game. 10' gave up 28.8 points per game, 05' gave up 19.2 points per game. 04' gave up 21.6
Our current "great defense" was still ranked 76th or worse in every defensive category. Yikes. Scoring defense was their best ranking at 76th. That is not good. Now, they can and should be better but they are not a good defense.
As for time of posession, the 05 team had 3 more minutes of posession than last years team.And 04' had less than 2:00 minutes more. Was that the defense giving the offense more possesions or the offense having more plays.
And please don't take this as me not liking what Wally has done. He has done a fantastic job but the fact remains that our defense still struggles to get off the field and unless our offense greatly improves (while losing all of its production) the defense will still be on the field a lot.
That Utah game skewed some stats horribly.. we gave up 1100 years to them and 68 points!! Swap them with army and the stats are a ton closer.2005 defense was still better imo as of right now ..
I cant argue the fact that Iowa has made us look BAD the last two years. Two years ago they were a BCS bowl winner, and last year if the wheels dont come off they are probably at least a 9 win team. Somehow last year they reversed their trend of getting better as the year goes on and they got worse toward the end, they did dominate MU in their bowl.
I guess my logic is that Iowa is breaking in new a new QB, Coker (sp) has had a few good games but to say that he is proven I think is a bit of a stretch, add to that they are thin/young behind him. WR everyone but McNutt that played much last year is gone. Their Defense tends to reload most years but they will be breaking in new starters across a lot of the front 4 as well as at safety. I was the first to bash Sash but that guy was always in the right place and clearly the leader of the D.
I wouldnt say that I am confident that we will beat them but I think we match up as well as we have for the past few years is all. It wont matter who they are replacing if our offense doesnt move the ball this year which we havent done when it mattered for a long time against them.
Good points. And like I said an argument can easily be made for '04 and '05. I may be way to optimistic about what Wally can get done, but his Ds have done nothing but surprise me so far. His first year they were hugely improved over the previous season, and last year no one was expecting anything close to what we had because of all the question marks. I'm probably recklessly optimistic for what I'm wanting to see this year.
Last year's defense was exactly what I thought it would be. Most people were concerned with the LB corp but I had no doubts. Klein and Knott are studds and showed it their Frosh year.
Like last year, the defenses success will rely on two things. The DL play and our offense. While we have inexperience at safety, a decent DL can help offset that. If our DL can't get pressure por make plays, then our safeties could be exposed. If our offense is as inconsistent this year as it has been in the past, then our defense will continue to be on the field more times than not.
It is just my opinion and really why I can't get to excited, but I don't see this offense being better than last year. About the only position I think we are "better" compared to last year is WR and possibly RB(maybe more talent butless knowledge).
To me it goes back to the spring game and the battle in the trenches. Is our DL really that much better that they could have the success that they did? OR is our OL worse than last year and made our DL look better than they really are. We won't know the answer to that question until next fall.
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Ok, I need some info from those who were able to watch the spring game.
Did the DL dominate the OL the whole game, or was it sporadic?
If it was sporadic, there is a chance that both OL and DL are good. (The could also both be really bad, but I am being optimistic. The OL was pretty good at times last year so I don't think they regressed that much.)
There is a possibility that the OL is talented, but not consistently. That is something that can improve over the summer and Fall. We are breaking in 2 new starters and Tuftee, who was the leader at guard, went out early didn't he?
Whereas I think Rump is a quality Big12 DT and we have heard that Lainge and McD have improved since last year. So, if they were getting production against what I think will be a good OL, they have improved, and if the OL had bright spots, with room to improve while breaking in 2 new starters, I think they can also be good next year.
Or just tell me to stop drinking the Koolaid.
Did the DL dominate the OL the whole game, or was it sporadic?
If it was sporadic, there is a chance that both OL and DL are good. (The could also both be really bad, but I am being optimistic. The OL was pretty good at times last year so I don't think they regressed that much.)
There is a possibility that the OL is talented, but not consistently. That is something that can improve over the summer and Fall. We are breaking in 2 new starters and Tuftee, who was the leader at guard, went out early didn't he?
Whereas I think Rump is a quality Big12 DT and we have heard that Lainge and McD have improved since last year. So, if they were getting production against what I think will be a good OL, they have improved, and if the OL had bright spots, with room to improve while breaking in 2 new starters, I think they can also be good next year.
Or just tell me to stop drinking the Koolaid.
Agreed, I got a strange feeling about this game.. Payback for wiping our ***** across the floor last year?
Here's my April Projection. I hope I can be less cynical when August arrives:
UNI W
Iowa L
@UConn W
Texas L
@Baylor W
@Missouri L
Texas A&M L
@Texas Tech L
Kansas W
@Oklahoma L
Oklahoma State L
@Kansas State L
4-8 (2-7)
Worst case: 2-9 (add loss @UConn)
Best case (realistically): 7-5 (3 of these: Iowa, Texas, Missouri, TT, OSU, KSU)
Even with question marks at QB, if the defense is solid, 6 or 7 wins is attainable. The difference between 3-9 and 7-5 is going to hinge on opponents' expectations, too, and at this point I haven't done enough research.
UNI W
Iowa L
@UConn W
Texas L
@Baylor W
@Missouri L
Texas A&M L
@Texas Tech L
Kansas W
@Oklahoma L
Oklahoma State L
@Kansas State L
4-8 (2-7)
Worst case: 2-9 (add loss @UConn)
Best case (realistically): 7-5 (3 of these: Iowa, Texas, Missouri, TT, OSU, KSU)
Even with question marks at QB, if the defense is solid, 6 or 7 wins is attainable. The difference between 3-9 and 7-5 is going to hinge on opponents' expectations, too, and at this point I haven't done enough research.
Their are only two teams on our schedule I don't think we can beat: OU and OSU.
A&M is unlikely, but I'm not sold on them. All the other teams I can easily say we can beat.
We are better at DLine, Oline, RB, LB, CB, WR
We are worse at TE, S, QB
Oline and Dline are the most important positions on the field. If you win the battle up front, you win. I think our Oline is improved, having a healthy Burris is a bigger positive than losing Lamaak is a negative. Tuftee (or Dika) is a wash with Alvarez. Dline we are no doubt better, for half the year we started UNI caliber players at DE. I think our DTs are better this year. Rump is better now, I think an improved McDonough is better than Johnson. We have more depth as well.
You know those spread recievers that always seem to be open? We finally have one of those in Aaron Horne. I think Shontrelle is better than Arob. Shontrelle is gonna have some runs were he doesn't get every yard he could (like Arob could), but he'll have some were he makes something out of nothing (something Arob couldn't).
I also think some of you are overrating some teams namely Texas, Texas Tech, and Mizzou.
A&M is unlikely, but I'm not sold on them. All the other teams I can easily say we can beat.
We are better at DLine, Oline, RB, LB, CB, WR
We are worse at TE, S, QB
Oline and Dline are the most important positions on the field. If you win the battle up front, you win. I think our Oline is improved, having a healthy Burris is a bigger positive than losing Lamaak is a negative. Tuftee (or Dika) is a wash with Alvarez. Dline we are no doubt better, for half the year we started UNI caliber players at DE. I think our DTs are better this year. Rump is better now, I think an improved McDonough is better than Johnson. We have more depth as well.
You know those spread recievers that always seem to be open? We finally have one of those in Aaron Horne. I think Shontrelle is better than Arob. Shontrelle is gonna have some runs were he doesn't get every yard he could (like Arob could), but he'll have some were he makes something out of nothing (something Arob couldn't).
I also think some of you are overrating some teams namely Texas, Texas Tech, and Mizzou.
Isnt Iowa St also breaking in a new QB and RB just like Iowa? So the points you see as weaknesses in Iowa also are the same for Iowa St correct?
