Latest Bracketology

[cyfan92]

Palm's latest (I hate him but on this particular version of his bracket...and the teams in question...he's spot on). Iowa State, Texas, Iowa, and Wisconsin on NET are all either too high or too low...the four biggest outliers some say.

According to Palm, he sees their NET is wrong too and is seeding them where honestly I think they should be as well. Iowa State (5), Wisconsin (2), Texas (10), and Iowa (11)

2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions - Bracketology - College Basketball

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Palm is ranked #100 on Bracket Matrix. Completely worthless opinion when it comes to making brackets

The best bracketologists have us as the top 6 seed

Latest Bracketology – DelphiBracketology

delphibracketology.com

 

[ca4cy]

Not gonna get too worked up. Lunardi made his bones by picking the field when nobody else was doing it and he's decent at that but I don't he's ever been great at hitting the seeds.

 

[dahliaclone]

Palm is ranked #100 on Bracket Matrix. Completely worthless opinion when it comes to making brackets

The best bracketologists have us as the top 6 seed

Latest Bracketology – DelphiBracketology

delphibracketology.com

Where did I say he was a genius and his opinion mattered? All I said is that THIS BRACKET in terms of Iowa, Texas, Iowa State, and Wisconsin makes WAY more sense than a lot of the others out there. I hate Palm and yes he's one of the worst predicting things but that wasn't my point. I was only saying that THIS bracket for four teams makes sense to me.

 

[CyberJJJ]

I don't love the idea of Purdue. Two monsters inside with Edey and Williams and 4 guys shooting over 40% from 3 and at least 2 attempts per game scares me. I guess our hard doubles in the post might cause some panic turnovers, but Edey can easily pass over top of any double team.

That have wilted 2X in the second half Vs Iowa under pressure. But they are big, those dudes can pass, and at least last night were hitting the 3 with accuracy

 

[NoCreativity]

That have wilted 2X in the second half Vs Iowa under pressure. But they are big, those dudes can pass, and at least last night were hitting the 3 with accuracy

Lol, they didn't wilt last night. They were in control that entire game. Iowa does have the #3 AdJO team so they got hot and cut it to 5 then Purdue promptly put them back on their place and were back up 13 within a couple minutes.

 

[CyberJJJ]

Lol, they didn't wilt last night. They were in control that entire game. Iowa does have the #3 AdJO team so they got hot and cut it to 5 then Purdue promptly put them back on their place and were back up 13 within a couple minutes.

Purdue won last night's game in control, as when Iowa closed the gap Purdue answered with big buckets. Having said that I contend they did in fact wilt, or if that is too strong of a word were at least susceptible to letting leads slip away, under heavy ball pressure in both games for awhile losing the majority of big leads in both games. My point in discussing possible match-ups with ISU is that Purdue has shown some susceptibility to heavy ball pressure which might bode well for ISU> Their excellent play from their bigs, ability to dribble penetrate, and three point shooting are all things that would make them a difficult match-up.

 

[clone52]

It does some of the things I liked about RPI, but then does stupid **** like making teams that are 0fer against quad one ranked really high because they blow out MAC teams, cut a blowout down to a respectable score against reserves and get to the FT line a lot. Weighing efficiency metrics so heavily that a team can ride meaningless things to a high NET without beating a single good team is a problem.

NET uses adjusted offensive efficiency, so you can't completely game the system by blowing out crappy MAC teams. Its not perfect but its a hell of a lot more accurate than RPI, even at the end of the year.

We're all complaining about Iowa, Iowa State and Texas, which sure seem way out of wack in the net. But the current RPI has Iowa State at 47, behind North Texas, Toledo, Hofstra.

It will be interesting to compare them at the end of the year, but I feel pretty confident that NET will make more sense than RPI.

That have wilted 2X in the second half Vs Iowa under pressure. But they are big, those dudes can pass, and at least last night were hitting the 3 with accuracy

You can pick out bits and pieces of any Top 10 team to say that they are vulnerable. Duke lost to Florida State and lost to Clemson (after being ahead by 8 in the 2nd half). Baylor "wilted" late against Iowa State. Texas Tech "wilted" late against Iowa State.

Iowa is a quality Big 10 team. Its not easy to crush a good team. I wouldn't blame a team for letting up a little bit when they get a big lead and seeing it melt away.

 

[clone52]

Purdue won last night's game in control, as when Iowa closed the gap Purdue answered with big buckets. Having said that I contend they did in fact wilt, or if that is too strong of a word were at least susceptible to letting leads slip away, under heavy ball pressure in both games for awhile losing the majority of big leads in both games. My point in discussing possible match-ups with ISU is that Purdue has shown some susceptibility to heavy ball pressure which might bode well for ISU> Their excellent play from their bigs, ability to dribble penetrate, and three point shooting are all things that would make them a difficult match-up.

I haven't watched a lot of Purdue, but if they are vulnerable to ball pressure, that might be a good matchup for Iowa State. I think Purdue ranks 50th in turnover rate, so that might bode well. Iowa ranks 1st and they turned it over like crazy against us, so who knows.

 

[Beyerball]

Lunardi Bracket is straight crack... He has Xavier and Marquette as 5 seeds...yet has ISU a 7 seed. And Iowa a 7 seed.

Not going to go over resumes again as we all know them...If the NCAA were selected today I'd guess ISU is a 5-6 seed and Iowa a 9 seed.

Iowa has little room for error. If they lose to Mich st, @ohio st and @ IL they absolutely have to win all the rest.

The question will become does the committee put more emphasis on analytics or who you actually beat and lost to?

 

[AuH2O]

NET uses adjusted offensive efficiency, so you can't completely game the system by blowing out crappy MAC teams. Its not perfect but its a hell of a lot more accurate than RPI, even at the end of the year.

We're all complaining about Iowa, Iowa State and Texas, which sure seem way out of wack in the net. But the current RPI has Iowa State at 47, behind North Texas, Toledo, Hofstra.

It will be interesting to compare them at the end of the year, but I feel pretty confident that NET will make more sense than RPI.


You can pick out bits and pieces of any Top 10 team to say that they are vulnerable. Duke lost to Florida State and lost to Clemson (after being ahead by 8 in the 2nd half). Baylor "wilted" late against Iowa State. Texas Tech "wilted" late against Iowa State.

Iowa is a quality Big 10 team. Its not easy to crush a good team. I wouldn't blame a team for letting up a little bit when they get a big lead and seeing it melt away.

Could be that RPI sucked much worse than I remember. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out, but it always seemed like it was extremely erratic and around game 25 or so it seemed to settle in and get rid of some of the wild outliers, the exception being what I had mentioned before - teams that played brutal schedules and hadn't lost to anybody bad.

It's pretty hard to have a disconnect between margin of victory and net efficiency, so yes, blowing a team out late rather than playing extended minutes with end of bench guys has a big difference. Just because it's not a margin of victory metric explicitly, it essentially is.

And I'm not saying throw the baby out with the bathwater. NET has a lot to like. However, I think there is way too much weight on offensive efficiency, which in turn is heavily weighted on FT attempts.

As for Iowa being a quality Big 10 team, I'm not sure.

 

[EnkAMania]

It's Lunardi. He's not that great of a bracketologist. Bracket matrix has ISU as a 6, Texas as a 7, and Iowa as an 8.

Look at the Bracket Matrix standings and you really see how bad Lunardi (and Palm) are.

 

[DSM4Cy]

Iowa could legitimately still miss the tournament at this point. They have ZERO Q1 wins. Right now they have the resume of a 9-10 seed when you dig in and compare. Fran has obviously figured out how to game the numbers though, so give him credit for that…

 

[Cydkar]

I'd like a list of names of bracketologists that are on the committee. I will then donate $10 per name to charity.
Bracketology, during the season, is complete click bait. Why? There's literally no way to know if they are right or wrong.
I'm pretty passionate about my disdain for bracketology.

 

[Cydkar]

Iowa could legitimately still miss the tournament at this point. They have ZERO Q1 wins. Right now they have the resume of a 9-10 seed when you dig in and compare. Fran has obviously figured out how to game the numbers though, so give him credit for that…

He's not gaming anything. It is what it is.

 

[CloneIce]

I'd like a list of names of bracketologists that are on the committee. I will then donate $10 per name to charity.
Bracketology, during the season, is complete click bait. Why? There's literally no way to know if they are right or wrong.
I'm pretty passionate about my disdain for bracketology.

Clickbait for basketball fans to discuss Is the entire point of it.

 

[BryceC]

Could be that RPI sucked much worse than I remember. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out, but it always seemed like it was extremely erratic and around game 25 or so it seemed to settle in and get rid of some of the wild outliers, the exception being what I had mentioned before - teams that played brutal schedules and hadn't lost to anybody bad.

It's pretty hard to have a disconnect between margin of victory and net efficiency, so yes, blowing a team out late rather than playing extended minutes with end of bench guys has a big difference. Just because it's not a margin of victory metric explicitly, it essentially is.

And I'm not saying throw the baby out with the bathwater. NET has a lot to like. However, I think there is way too much weight on offensive efficiency, which in turn is heavily weighted on FT attempts.

As for Iowa being a quality Big 10 team, I'm not sure.

RPI is absolutely awful. Alabama still at #6. Iona at #17. Baylor at #16. Crazy stuff.

College Basketball Rankings 2021-22 - RPI

Get the latest College Basketball rankings for the 2021-22 season. Find out where your favorite team is ranked in the AP Top 25, Coaches Poll, Top 25 And 1, NET, or RPI polls and rankings.

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[mj4cy]

The latest bracketology on ESPN has ISU a 7 seed. Other 7 seeds Texas, Colorado St, and IOWA. Can somebody explain to me how we are so low in seeding right now? If you compare resumes between us and those teams, it really is no comparison. Iowa has 0(!) quad 1 wins vs 6 for ISU, 1 more loss, and a worse SOS. Makes no sense.

NCAA Bracketology - Projecting the 2022 March Madness men's field (espn.com)

Still no clue why the rankings/computers love Iowa.

 

[twincyties]

Honestly, I'd be happy with the bracket:
Boise State then Purdue to get to the sweet 16. That's very doable.

Then USC or 'Nova to the Elite 8. That's doable
Then Kansas/Illinois/Tennessee to the Final Four.

I'm not saying that's a cake walk but it's not insurmountable either.

As a 7 seed that is the best possible path.

 

[twincyties]

Still no clue why the rankings/computers love Iowa.

It has to be because of their offensive efficiency rating. It’s only possible explanation.

I suspect we would be much higher if it weren’t for some dismal performances against some of the very worst teams in college basketball. Game like Jackson State will just kill you analytically speaking.

 

[BCoffClone125]

Bracket matrix still shows ISU on the 6 seed line after yesterday along with UConn, Alabama and USC. ISU is the 4th highest projected Big 12 team behind Baylor (1), KU (1) and TTU (4).

It's fun to be able to care about this stuff again.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/