March Madness Prediction

How far will they go in the tournament?

  • First round loss

    Votes: 6 2.3%
  • Round of 32

    Votes: 62 23.8%
  • Sweet 16

    Votes: 110 42.3%
  • Elite 8

    Votes: 52 20.0%
  • Final 4

    Votes: 16 6.2%
  • Championship game

    Votes: 2 0.8%
  • National champ

    Votes: 12 4.6%

  • Total voters
    260

2forISU

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All depends on the draw, but Sweet-16(best case scenario) or round of 32 is where I see this team at.

You just never know what ISU team you are getting each night, so I'm not confident that will just turn on the consistency switch
 

Statefan10

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The problem I have is that this team has been trending the wrong direction since the beginning of conference play. Yeah, we had some injuries and players sitting out, but even with them all back now, we aren't playing at that level we started conference play with.
To be fair though we just lost our 2nd game of the year with a fully healthy roster. We’re fully healthy though right now so now there are no excuses!
 

madguy30

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To be fair though we just lost our 2nd game of the year with a fully healthy roster. We’re fully healthy though right now so now there are no excuses!

I think Gilbert is still held up a bit although better and Jackson was apparently sick Tuesday.

Not sure if he would have done much anyway but Chatfield's foul issues stressed things a bit.
 

Statefan10

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I think Gilbert is still held up a bit although better and Jackson was apparently sick Tuesday.

Not sure if he would have done much anyway but Chatfield's foul issues stressed things a bit.
Yeah we’re not 100% healthy but I’d say most teams aren’t. I just care we have everyone back.
 

Clonefan32

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Nov 19, 2008
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I think Elite 8. This team has a gear that it's capable of kicking in to. I think our defensive pressure will surprise non Big 12 teams, and our offense will be enough.
 
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thisISnextyear

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Ames
And the only thing us fans can do is hope because we don't implement strategies.
We don't, however the question in this thread is how far will they go. Not how far do you HOPE they go. If that was the case, there is only one poll choice for a fan forum and that is to win every game we play, including the National Championship.
Saying it all comes down to matchups feels like an excuse for a loss that hasn't happened yet so that is why I made my original comment about matchups ranging from Auburn to K State and Okie State. Of course it comes down to matchups, but the best teams have a good scout and prepare a strategy (and then execute that strategy) to beat the teams they play.
 

Statefan10

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We don't, however the question in this thread is how far will they go. Not how far do you HOPE they go. If that was the case, there is only one poll choice for a fan forum and that is to win every game we play, including the National Championship.
Saying it all comes down to matchups feels like an excuse for a loss that hasn't happened yet so that is why I made my original comment about matchups ranging from Auburn to K State and Okie State. Of course it comes down to matchups, but the best teams have a good scout and prepare a strategy (and then execute that strategy) to beat the teams they play.
No one knows how far we will go though. We could lose in the first round. We could also make the FF. It’s going to come down to a multitude of factors obviously.
 

madguy30

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We don't, however the question in this thread is how far will they go. Not how far do you HOPE they go. If that was the case, there is only one poll choice for a fan forum and that is to win every game we play, including the National Championship.
Saying it all comes down to matchups feels like an excuse for a loss that hasn't happened yet so that is why I made my original comment about matchups ranging from Auburn to K State and Okie State. Of course it comes down to matchups, but the best teams have a good scout and prepare a strategy (and then execute that strategy) to beat the teams they play.

ISU played very poorly in both games, but KSU and OSU have bigger guards which is physically a problem for ISU's smaller guards.

That's not an excuse, it's realistically a thing.

And sometimes you have a strategy and it still doesn't work if someone's hitting shots and you aren't.

In ISU's case, the players seem to tend to get away from the plan (going off of TJ's pressers) and with ISU's limitations, that breaks everything down. There's depth within the core, but then just benching players drops things off quickly and it's not just a loss; it's a mess.
 

madguy30

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No one knows how far we will go though. We could lose in the first round. We could also make the FF. It’s going to come down to a multitude of factors obviously.

ISU could play well in their first round game and still get beat. I don't know what's out there in the mid-majors but many times those teams have one or two guys that could easily be big factors on a P4 team and can be a major issue.

In 2017 ISU played very well against UNR but they had some dudes that showed out. It came down to Naz hitting basically a prayer from three to get separation in the end.
 

Statefan10

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ISU could play well in their first round game and still get beat. I don't know what's out there in the mid-majors but many times those teams have one or two guys that could easily be big factors on a P4 team and can be a major issue.

In 2017 ISU played very well against UNR but they had some dudes that showed out. It came down to Naz hitting basically a prayer from three to get separation in the end.
Yeah we’re still going to need to play well in the first round no matter who it is. Also, I think there will be at least one 1 seed who gets dropped in the round of 32. 8 seeds could be teams like Illinois, Gonzaga, UCONN, BYU.
 

Clonefan32

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The other thing is it's easy to get stuck in your own little vacuum of Iowa State basketball, but no team is absolutely killing it right now. Auburn lost the other night. Tennessee lost last night. Mizzou lost last night. Alabama has lost 4 of their last 6. Duke is rolling but against garbage competition.

It's a long year and it's not uncommon to have some fatigue late. March brings new excitement and new challenges that I'm thinking will have everyone at their best.
 

madguy30

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The other thing is it's easy to get stuck in your own little vacuum of Iowa State basketball, but no team is absolutely killing it right now. Auburn lost the other night. Tennessee lost last night. Mizzou lost last night. Alabama has lost 4 of their last 6. Duke is rolling but against garbage competition.

It's a long year and it's not uncommon to have some fatigue late. March brings new excitement and new challenges that I'm thinking will have everyone at their best.

Broom got hurt which I think did Auburn in.

But yeah otherwise it's definitely a grind for anyone.
 

not-the-manager

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Sweet 16 I’d say. Just depends how we draw. But I’m not sure we are consistent enough to get to elite 8 and beyond
I don't get the consistency argument floated in multiple threads when you get a week to prepare for the Sweet Sixteen. If someone thinks they'll lose the first weekend, fine. But we've seen them win consecutive games against average teams, like 2.5 weeks ago
 

Dgilbertson

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It does feel like there is a lot of variance with this year's team. Just have not had the consistency or continuity that you want to see this late in the season. That said, nobody should be predicting a first round upset. At our best, we are clearly in the top 2 tiers of teams in the sport. I think we could lose in round 2 if we run into a bad matchup, but I am optimistic we can return to the Sweet 16.
CBB really any season is an interesting mix. What makes for regular season titles is endurance and prolonged consistency/focus, even against bad teams.

Then season champion is decided by a tournament. It’s a different beast.

Thus far TJ’s teams have been pretty solid to exceptional in tournaments.

I always used to think Self let his Uber talented teams struggle a bit in January after they breezed through non con of talent alone to get them to gel and listen to him.

Perhaps TJ can harness some of the same mojo, or has, going into March.