March Madness Prediction

[Dgilbertson]

Free throw shooting in late game situations is what I meant. I’ve seen our guards miss some huge free throws late.

There have been a few front end 1&1’s missed and uncharacteristic misses from CuJo early in games…

However, without looking, this is easily TJ’s best ft shooting team. And I’d guess maybe best since Eustace/Floyd. Not sure if McD’s teams were solid at the line.

I have more collective confidence in this team from the line than any I can recall.

**edit 1** I’ve never hated Steve more in my life. Of course Prohm’s last team that won 2 games shot a higher percentage. This year’s team ft% is best through 2003-04 season aside from one of ISU’s worst teams of all time.

**edit 2** I believe I searched correctly and this years team is only bested by the ‘95 Fred, Julius, Loren team from in team ft%

 

[BeastCY]

I think the main thing is getting confidence back. This team doesn't have it like earlier in the season. CuJo needs to find his rhythm again. And really everyone just needs to find their place again. I think an early exit from the Big 12 is needed and gives this team time to rest up and be prepared.

 

[frackincygy]

And if we exclude the OT periods, teams are shooting 44-48 (91.7%) at the line against ISU the last two games during regulation

Sounds like our poor effort on half-court shot attempt defense has trickled to the free throw line. Concerning.

 

[thisISnextyear]

I think the main thing is getting confidence back. This team doesn't have it like earlier in the season. CuJo needs to find his rhythm again. And really everyone just needs to find their place again. I think an early exit from the Big 12 is needed and gives this team time to rest up and be prepared.

How does an early loss in KC translate to confidence? Rest and be prepared yes, but an early loss?

 

[Kettes]

Assuming we are a 3 seed, right now Bracket Matrix has these teams as the 6 seed:
St Mary's
Oregon
Mississippi State
Louisville

If we fall to a 4, the 5 seeds are:
Missouri
Clemson
Maryland
Marquette

Which of these teams are worse than Oklahoma State? Just asking?

 

[dahliaclone]

How does an early loss in KC translate to confidence? Rest and be prepared yes, but an early loss?

It…doesn’t? They’re literally two separate comments. One we need confidence. Two early loss in KC is giving us rest which we also probably need.

 

[Statefan10]

It…doesn’t? They’re literally two separate comments. One we need confidence. Two early loss in KC is giving us rest which we also probably need.

Rest vs rust. I don’t think it matters. I think you can find value in both. I honestly think confidence would help more. I’m not saying go play 4 straight games in four days but make it to Friday and lose a close one to Houston could be good for us.

 

[hoosman]

Every game there is a new weakness waiting to appear. Zero points out the 5 spot. 17 opposing offensive rebounds. Turnovers. Seems like there is one guy that doesn't show up each game. At least Gilbert is back on track. This team is more inconsistent than last year's team, so sweet 16 is all we're getting.

 

[Statefan10]

Every game there is a new weakness waiting to appear. Zero points out the 5 spot. 17 opposing offensive rebounds. Turnovers. Seems like there is one guy that doesn't show up each game. At least Gilbert is back on track. This team is more inconsistent than last year's team, so sweet 16 is all we're getting.

Yet last years team was sweet 16 and more consistent so how does that logic play out?

 

[not-the-manager]

Every game there is a new weakness waiting to appear. Zero points out the 5 spot. 17 opposing offensive rebounds. Turnovers. Seems like there is one guy that doesn't show up each game. At least Gilbert is back on track. This team is more inconsistent than last year's team, so sweet 16 is all we're getting.

This just in: team whose three best players have missed at least one game has not played up to '23-'24 UConn's standards. If people want to argue there's not enough time left to get in sync, fine. There's a notable chance that ends up being the case. But "This team is inconsistent" is only good as far as it goes. It's a statement and an implicit acknowledgement of the circumstances that led to results, not a predictive metric

 

[fsanford]

Which of these teams are worse than Oklahoma State? Just asking?

This discussion seems to be over your head.

 

[iowastatefan1929]

NC State last year:
Lost 4 straight to end regular season and only won 2 games in February, won ACC tourney and went final 4.

Alabama last year:
Loses 4 of their last 6, bounced out of SEC tourney with a beat down from Florida, and went to final 4.

 

[madguy30]

I think the main thing is getting confidence back. This team doesn't have it like earlier in the season. CuJo needs to find his rhythm again. And really everyone just needs to find their place again. I think an early exit from the Big 12 is needed and gives this team time to rest up and be prepared.

Imo they've been more 'chaotic' on defense the last two games than most of the season and it's led to the team looking way more cohesive. Even if shots weren't falling they were still dictating early against BYU.

It just may take a bit to sustain it over a full game but it seemed to come back in the last 10 minutes.

Maybe they were trying to balance things out this season and are finding Otzball really is their fit.

 

[cyclones500]

This team won’t lose to a 13/14 seed

I suppose "Worst Version of Ourselves" could lose, but I don't feel this time is as prone to first-round exit as it might be in a 3v11 or 4v12 round of 32, when it comes to seed variance > 7. (3v6 definitely more like 50-50).

Using latest Bracket Matrix as a guide, ISU potential opponents:

As 3 seed (vs. 14)
Lipscomb
Chattanooga
Utah Valley
Towson

As 4 seed (vs. 13)
Yale
High Point
Akron
Arkansas State

I’ll leave it open to assessment how much “anxiety factor” there is among those groups.

 

[coolerifyoudid]

There have been a few front end 1&1’s missed and uncharacteristic misses from CuJo early in games…

However, without looking, this is easily TJ’s best ft shooting team. And I’d guess maybe best since Eustace/Floyd. Not sure if McD’s teams were solid at the line.

I have more collective confidence in this team from the line than any I can recall.

**edit 1** I’ve never hated Steve more in my life. Of course Prohm’s last team that won 2 games shot a higher percentage. This year’s team ft% is best through 2003-04 season aside from one of ISU’s worst teams of all time.

**edit 2** I believe I searched correctly and this years team is only bested by the ‘95 Fred, Julius, Loren team from in team ft%

With all respect to Big Rob, this year it's nice to see one of our guys get fouled and not immediately think "I just hope we get one out of two." We really don't have a bad free throw shooter on the team. Heise is the lowest of our rotation guys, but he's got a low volume. Whenever I see him go to the line , I still feel like he's going to make them.

 

[GoSTATE71]

Honestly even anything less than a S16 is a huge disappointment. They could make a final four but I’m not all that optimistic unless matchups are favorable. I would of never expected losing some of the games we have. Just too inconsistent of a team despite being full of veterans. Hoping for an E8 but idk

 

[Kettes]

This discussion seems to be over your head.

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