Nebraska and Pac 10 Seem To Hold The Cards
- Thread starter Wingback
- Start date
Definitely agree with jdogg. If the Big 10 can force ND into the league with the threat of 16 team superconferences and a national playoff system to annihilate the BCS, they'll come out smelling like a rose. Nebraska and Mizzou will stop ******* in the wind and Texas politely declines the Pac 10's invitation.
Who's to say Nebraska can't tell the Big 12 they are committed and then leave? Sure Nebraska would have to pay back some of their TV revenue, but if the Big Ten wants them they will pay that for Nebraska.
It was mentioned elsewhere that this commitment would probably come with some legal-ese.
That makes sense. Suppose it depends on the cost.
That makes a lot more sense then, I'm sure the penalty may even be a little more severe if they say they are committed and then do leave.
Believe me, DaddyMac, Tom Osborne has been in many, many pressure-packed situations in his career and he doesn't seem to be the least bit concerned about the situation Nebraska is in at this point. He said, very early-on in the process that neither he nor the University were sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what was going to happen (ala Geoffrey and Pollard) and that he would be very pro-active with regards to what Nebraska was going to do. There is no question in my mind that if a Big 10 offer doesn't come (which I am convinced it will no matter what Notre Dame decides), he has contingency plans in place. In spite of what some CFers may think, Nebraska is still seen as a major player in the college footbal landscape.
Nobody is saying they aren't a player, nor a desireable target for expansion (at least I'm not). I don't think they are quite as desireable as many Huskers think they are, but whatever.
What I'm saying is that I think they're between a rock and a hard-place. A looming deadline with the Big XII and an extended timeline with the Big 10 who has yet to make an offer and not to anxious to do anything.
Now there's alot of caveats to that position. Perhaps Osborne has solid assurances from the Big 10 that NU is in - and he's willing to go on that alone. Perhaps the Big XII "ultimatum" has no teeth and he finds acceptable to commit today.... backout tomorrow. Probably another 50 scenarios.
TO and NU will need to be pro-active, it seems NU is pretty alone in the college football landscape in having to make a decision today.
I would say that both of these most likely are true, DaddyMac. I believe, and always have believed, that the WHB story of a week or so ago is essentially accurate, but the Big 10 had to deny it for a number of "face saving" reasons. I also have always believed that the Big 12 ultimatum is a lot of Beebee "hot air." He needs Nebraska in order to keep the conference in tact and he knows it. There will be a lot of "saber rattling" but none of it means anything. If Beebee holds one ounce of sway in any of this, why hasn't he had stern discussions with Texas. He knows there is absolutely nothing he can do except hold on for the ride and update his resume at this point.
Well, I have little doubt that there's been contact between the two. Perhaps even a gentlemen's agreement. Wouldn't surprise me in the least.
And as mentioned elsewhere, the ultimatum is from the rest of the conference presidents, not so much Beebe. However, fact is that the majority of the rest of the conference have another seat in the game of musical chairs - namely the Pac10 idea.
They tell Mizzou and NU to commit or else. NU and Mizzou do - Conference goes forward, Texas still runs the show and everyone falls in line. NU and Mizzou don't - it's their fault for breaking up the conference and the south walks away feeling pretty good about themselves claiming innocence in all this.
Not to mention, one would think/hope/expect/be dillusional enough to believe .. that Beebe is being proactive with FSN and a new TV commitment to secure the future of the conference and avoid all this. Certainly he would need to know the players to make that happen.
So it appears that NU is having to act ahead of everyone else. If you consider that pro-active, so be it. I don't find it to be a particularly enviable position - again not knowing what is in place with the Big 10.
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Bingo. Especially in regard to nobody caring about Mizzou at all. In fact if we could find a way for them to leave the Big XII and just be replaced I would be all for it. I hate Mizzou and always will thanks to that little Sutherland punk that played for Norm Stewart. Oh.... Chase Daniels sucks too. :yes:
They make the offer, but I think it largely gets ignored. The Pac-10 wants Texas, and is willing to invite other Big 12 members to ensure it happens (they may want Oklahoma and A&M, but you have to figure they could care less about Baylor, OSU, and TT, and apparently CU is interchangeable for Baylor). A&M, in another thread, reportedly would rather stay in the Big 12 or join the SEC than join the Pac-10, same with Oklahoma. And Texas has pretty much made it clear that they would rather stay in the Big 12, but will "blow up the conference" if Nebraska doesn't commit.
This is obviously all purely speculation based on everyone else's speculation, but from what I gather, if the Big 10 lands ND, they are done with expansion because that's who they really want out of all of this (and are using the superconference to force ND's hand because superconferences would pretty much make ND irrelevant). If the Big 10 is perfectly happy with ND making 12, neither Nebraska nor Missouri are getting Big 10 invites, which means the Big 12 stays in tact, well, maybe with the exception of Colorado, who has been rumored to want to go to the Pac-10 as badly and for as long as Missouri has wanted to go to the Big 10. But I just don't see Texas blowing up their gravy train to share power in the Pac-10, and I don't see the south teams jumping if Texas doesn't jump first.
Per Chip Brown, the original author of the OrangeBloods story:
Texas does NOT want the Big XII to break up, but if Nebraska jumps ship all bets are off.
Based on his sources here are the two most likely scenarios.
Scenario 1:
- IF Notre Dame agrees to join the Big 10 (which sounds like a coin flip at this point) the Big 10 will stop expansion at 12 and the door will be closed on Nebraska.
- In this case Texas will resist the Pac 10 proposal and the Big 12 will carry on.
Scenario 2:
- If ND does not accept then the Big 10 will likely offer Nebraska and the thought is Nebraska will jump all over it.
- In this case Texas will agree to join the Pac 10 and the other 5 will follow.
Texas does NOT want the Big XII to break up, but if Nebraska jumps ship all bets are off.
Based on his sources here are the two most likely scenarios.
Scenario 1:
- IF Notre Dame agrees to join the Big 10 (which sounds like a coin flip at this point) the Big 10 will stop expansion at 12 and the door will be closed on Nebraska.
- In this case Texas will resist the Pac 10 proposal and the Big 12 will carry on.
Scenario 2:
- If ND does not accept then the Big 10 will likely offer Nebraska and the thought is Nebraska will jump all over it.
- In this case Texas will agree to join the Pac 10 and the other 5 will follow.
Like I've been saying for a while now, it doesn't make sense for Texas to jump. They already make more than almost any other school for athletics. If anything, they should want us to try to pick up a few schools in other states with big populations and make the Big XII the Big XVI. Especially if these schools can form some sort of a research consortium that has an edge in alternative fuels or something similar with a potential for LOTS of research dollars. OF course, this is assuming Beebe has any thread of competence...
As a Cyclone fan living in Husker country forever, there is one thing I know. TO will be "all in" no matter which direction he takes. He will not commit to something and then back out if a better offer comes unless the conference dissolves and leaves him no choice. We all know that this decision is going to come down to money. Can Nebraska and Texas make more money long term staying in the Big XII or jumping to another conference?
According to an article I read on ESPN this morning, TO is saying that he is unaware of a deadline of Friday from the Big XII. TO is smart enough to stay out of a situation where he will be the start of the dismantling of the Big XII.
Let the Cold War of college football continue to rage on.
According to an article I read on ESPN this morning, TO is saying that he is unaware of a deadline of Friday from the Big XII. TO is smart enough to stay out of a situation where he will be the start of the dismantling of the Big XII.
Let the Cold War of college football continue to rage on.
That seems to be the conventional wisdom. But I don't really understand the second part of Scenario 2? Wouldn't you think that if NU was the only school to bail and we were left with 11, it wouldn't be the most difficult thing to do to get another 12th. (Col St, Utah, Memphis, TCU... .any number of schools). Texas would still run the Big XII (they're sharing quite a bit with USC in the Pac 10).
I know that NU has alot of national cache. But as far as TV's go, the Omaha market is behind the DSM/Ames market. And Lincoln is quite a bit further down the list. How is that such a deal breaker for the Big XII?
Speculation...UT feels there needs to be an anchor in the North to make the conference viable. NU, as much as I dislike them, is a pretty good anchor. $75,000,000 athletic budget, 80,000+ seat FB staduim, other very nice facilities, good national following. What realistic prospect could bring that to the North, or "anchor" theory aside, to the conference? I really don't know of one.
If that's the case, then I'm very confused as to what the Big 10 is doing in waiting to make their announcement?
Wouldn't you think that the best way to force ND's hand is to show them the train is leaving the station?
Yeah, talk about wagging the dog in Scenario 2.
Besides their brand, and major market TV sets, the next most value Texas holds is their high school football recruits. Why would they want to open them up to Arizona and So Cal unless they absolutely had to? Why would a Nebraska decision sway that thinking?
Another thing not really mentioned in the poker hand analogy is even if Nebraska had a winning hand, the Pac 10 basically just showed it to the other players. With the Pac 10 invites to the Texas schools, why would the Big 10 be in a hurry to invite Nebraska or Missouri to their party. The Big 10 now has the bargaining power because they know those two schools could potentially be between a rock and a hard place. That is an aspect of this you won't hear Perrault or Nebraska fan talk about.
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