First, thanks for the great posts full of info, I truly appreciate it. As we wait for the FB kickoff I have a few questions?
1. Any reason you project Xavier over Auburn? Xavier lost their coach, their 2 star guards and a good 5 and his backup. The Pearl has all but one of his players back. I always considered them the clear 3 seed at Maui.
2. I'd really be curious as to your thoughts on Bartorvik's individual rating projections for the Clones, (MIN, ORTG, Usage). Are Wigginton & Shayok better than a ORTG of 110 and 106 respectively? I realize It's all conjecture to some degree.
3. Only became aware of Bartorvik last Spring after the bb season. Looks similar to Kpom. Does anyone know whether it updates the stats as rapidly as Kpom?
Thanks!
(1.) I think you knew the bracket better than I do in looking it over. I agree with your assessment -- if your scenario goes down that we win against Arizona, then we likely have Gonzaga (the likely victor over Illinois) and then Auburn (assuming they lose to Duke) in the third-place game. Your reading of the bracket makes more sense than my impression.
I was similarly guessing on 1-1 in Kansas City with a win over Purple Kansas and a loss against Blue Kansas. Those are total guesses. I do wish they would add a feature to project opponents in preseason tournaments like that and for known postseason engagements like conference playoffs. It would not be that many more matrices to multiply across, after all.
(2.) How about we put some context on this one?
Bartorvik's projections for playing time would be...
That looks reasonable enough for me. I could quibble on a few things, but I do not found that an unsound basis for projections (of a bubble team). I might put Young a little lower and Shayok a little higher, but the above is a completely reasonable thing for our distribution of minutes to work out this season with the roster as we have it into the year.
ORtg and Usage need the context of the last season for these players...
Usages stay similar, maybe even dropping a dozen or so possessions for most of the players throughout the season. The
team ORTG (weighted evenly across the eight "returners" above) goes up by an
average of 8, which is a lot across a whole season. That is roughly 6 points per game. That wins us a lot of games. BART is projecting a lot of improvement across the roster and in most of our players, especially the incoming sophomores.
(3.) I am not sure how rapid it is, but I checked the Iowa State page a few hours after our schedule was announced, and the page was "built out" to include all of our announced schedule, so I imagine it is pretty quick. Most of these sites pull from a centralized database maintained by ESPN, if I remember correctly, so BART (as well as KenPom and Sports Reference and the like) usually update by the next day. I think it would be rather current.
