It feels so soft I just want to rest my pretty little head on it. March 7th, 2013 Bubble Tracker
America East - Stony Brook (1) - Regular Season Champions. Need Auto Bid to go to the tourney. Next game versus Binghamton in the first round.
A-10 - VCU, St. Louis, Butler, La Salle (4)
Bubble - Temple (RPI 41, BPI 57, SOS 62) , Xavier (RPI 82, BPI 72, SOS 41) (2)
Fringe - Massachusetts (RPI 55, BPI 87, SOS 69) (1) - If Temple and La Salle beat their final opponents (VCU, St. Louis), they would be safe locks. Xavier needs to be Butler and then make run in the A-10 tournament. Same for UMASS.
ACC - Miami, Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State (4)
Bubble - Virginia (RPI 64, BPI 40, SOS 104) (1)
Fringe - Maryland (RPI 86, BPI 55, SOS 80) (1) - Virginia is a bipolar bubble team, beating Duke, then losing to BC. They would be well served to win out, and one of their last games games is against fellow bubble/fringe Maryland. Is this an elimination game? I think so!
Atlantic Sun - Mercer (1). Need the auto bid to be in. Just beat Lipscomb to move to the second round of the A-Sun Tourney.
Big 12 - Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma (4)
Bubble - Iowa State (RPI 51, BPI 39, SOS 55) (1)
Fringe - Baylor (RPI 69, BPI 49, SOS 44) (1) - ISU got the win it desperately needed against OSU. Beat WVU and one game in the BIg 12 tournament, there will be no nail biting. The Cyclones would be in. Baylor on the other hand needs to beat Kansas in their last game and then go on a run, probably to the semi-finals of the Big 12 tournament to get in.
Big East - Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Cincinnati (7)
Bubble: Villanova (RPI 53, BPI 59, SOS 21) (1)
Fringe: Providence (RPI 79, BPI 60, SOS 12) (1) - Big win by Nova over Georgetown. The key for Villanova is to not have a let down in their next game. Providence is like a bat out of hell. They have currently won 7 of their last 8 games, and are making a push for at large consideration. More wins are needed, and a run in the Big East tournament.
Big Sky - Montana (1) - Must win Auto Bid.
Big South - Charleston Southern (1) - Regular Season Champion. Next game vs. Winthrop in the 2nd round of the Big South tournament.
Big Ten - Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota (7)
Bubble - None
Fringe - Iowa (RPI 76, BPI 51, SOS 60) (1) - Iowa is back due to the soft bubble (like a pillow!). The win against Illinois was good, but they need to beat Nebraska, then go 2 to 3 games deep in the Big Ten tournament. It's hard, but not impossible.
Big West - Long Beach State (1) - Must win A****id
CAA - Northeastern (1) - Next game versus George Mason or Drexel. Must win Auto Bid
Horizon - Valparaiso (1) - Next game versus Green Bay or Illinois Chicago. Must win Auto Bid
Ivy - Princeton (1) Must win Auto Bid
MAAC - Niagara (1) - Next game vs. Marist or Siena. Must win Auto bid
MAC - Akron (1) - Gets a bye all the way to the semi finals. Decent chance at an At Large birth, but to be safe, win the damn tournament. (RPI 47, BPI 48, SOS 123)
MEAC - Norfolk State (1) - Must win Auto Bid
Missouri Valley - Creighton, Wichita State (2)
Mountain West - New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, SDSU (4)
Bubble: Boise State (RPI 43, BPI 47, SOS 92) (1)
Fringe - Air Force (RPI 87, BPI 95, SOS 96) (1) - Boise State got the big win over CSU, but couldn't pull it of versus UNLV. Nexy, SDSU comes to town. Win that and Boise has a stronger profile. I included Air Force due to the MWC tourney. Make some damage and could make things interesting.
Northeast - Robert Morris (1) - Next game versus Mount Saint Mary's. Must win Auto Bid
Ohio Valley - Belmont (1) - Next game versus Morehead State or Tennessee State. This team has a great chance to get an at large birth. Would be wise to win the OVC tournament however. (RPI 22, BPI 50, SOS 153)
Pac-12 - Oregon, UCLA, California, Arizona (4)
Bubble - Colorado (RPI 28, BPI 38, SOS 2) (1)
Fringe - ASU (RPI 97, BPI 67, SOS 78) (1) - If Colorado can beat Oregon in their next matchup, they are a lock. ASU, needs to win out and make a run in the Pac-12 tournament.
Patriot - Bucknell (1) - Fringe At Large candidate. Would be well served to win their tournament. Next game versus Army. (RPI 54, BPI 58, SOS 175)
Bubble - none
Fringe: Lehigh (1) - This is all dependent on CJ McCollum. If he returns, this team can win the Patriot League Tourney. Has to win the Auto Bid. No need to see RPI, BPI or SOS.
SEC - Florida, Missouri (2)
Bubble: Kentucky(RPI 52, BPI 44, SOS 46), Tennessee(RPI 56, BPI 62, SOS 36), Ole Miss(RPI 57, BPI 45, SOS 103) (3)
Fringe: Alabama (RPI 62, BPI 68, SOS 50), Arkansas (RPI 82, BPI 77, SOS 57) (2) - This conference is a mess! All 'bubble' teams lost on Saturday, then they all won on Wednesday. There is no way to sort this out. The only solution is to see who wins.
Southern - Davidson (1) - Next game versus Wofford or Georgia Southern. Must win Auto Bid
Southland - Stephen F. Austin (1) Must Win Auto Bid
SWAC - Southern (1) - Next game versus Alabama A&M or Grambling State. Must win Auto Bid
Summit League - South Dakota State (1) - Next game verus IUPUI. Must win Auto Bid
Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee (1) - ANother At Large hopeful. Again, would be best served to in the conference tournament. Next game vs. ULL or North Texas (RPI 24, BPI 41, SOS 128)
WCC - Gonzaga (1)
Bubble - Saint Mary's (RPI 34, BPI 33, SOS 114)(1)
Fringe - BYU (RPI 59, BPI 70, SOS 108) (1) - Saint Mary's gets a bye to the semi finals, while BYU gets to play San Diego or Pepperdine. BYU would need to win the WCC tourney to get in.
WAC - Louisiana Tech (1) - The final At Large hopeful of the mid majors. Has two incredibly important games before the WAC tournament: Denver and New Mexico State. Both are top 100 RPI and top 3 in the WAC. (RPI 45, BPI 65, SOS 173)
Locks: 59
Bubble and Fringe: 22
With 59 locks, that leaves only 8 spots for 22 Bubble and Fringe teams.
wink
