There will be (and should be) a national meltdown if somehow Ohio State jumps OU if they both win.
The committee had their chance to put OSU ahead this week and didn't do it. They aren't going to do it next week if both win.
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There will be (and should be) a national meltdown if somehow Ohio State jumps OU if they both win.
The committee had their chance to put OSU ahead this week and didn't do it. They aren't going to do it next week if both win.
If the committee was going give tOSU a chance to jump OU in the final poll, they would have given NW a big undeserved bump this week.
ND is undefeated. And beat CCG participants Northwestern and Pitt as well as Michigan. Good grief, they are considering Ohio State if they would beat Northwestern. Notre Dame already has.
Something.... Something.... 13th data point.
Oh there is no way ND isn't already in the playoffs regardless. It's just 538 model has them outside in a few weird scenarios. The most likely would be this one, but even they are admitting the model doesn't take in account that hey it's ND.
Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma AND Ohio State win.
Chances of happening: 31 percent
Likely playoff field: Alabama (>99 percent), Clemson (>99), Ohio State (69), Oklahoma (69)
Others: Notre Dame (62 percent)
Under this very plausible situation — the most likely on this list, in fact — the committee would have to make a tough choice among Ohio State, Oklahoma and Notre Dame for the third and fourth playoff seeds. Lacking any kind of special Notre Dame adjustment, the model thinks OSU and OU would come out ahead. Realistically speaking, however, it’s difficult to imagine that the committee would exclude an undefeated Irish squad, right or wrong. So that means it would come down to splitting hairs between the Buckeyes and Sooners. Good luck with that.
Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma AND Ohio State win.
Chances of happening: 31 percent
Likely playoff field: Alabama (>99 percent), Clemson (>99), Ohio State (69), Oklahoma (69)
Others: Notre Dame (62 percent)
Under this very plausible situation — the most likely on this list, in fact — the committee would have to make a tough choice among Ohio State, Oklahoma and Notre Dame for the third and fourth playoff seeds. Lacking any kind of special Notre Dame adjustment, the model thinks OSU and OU would come out ahead. Realistically speaking, however, it’s difficult to imagine that the committee would exclude an undefeated Irish squad, right or wrong. So that means it would come down to splitting hairs between the Buckeyes and Sooners. Good luck with that.
And this scenario has ND outside as well. So the model likes that 13th data point. This one seems like doomsday though. I could see in this scenario both OU and tOSU being left out, especially if Georgia barely wins. Then I could see it actually ending up be Clemson, Georgia, ND, and Bama, because why keep out a 1 loss Bama squad, they didn't last year.
Clemson, Oklahoma and Ohio State win; Alabama loses.
Chances of happening: 19 percent
Likely playoff field: Clemson (>99 percent), Georgia (98), Ohio State (66), Oklahoma (62)
Others: Notre Dame (60 percent), Alabama (13)
This is the combination the selection committee has to be fearing the most, in part because it could happen so easily. It would simply require the Tigers, Sooners and Buckeyes winning a trio of games as favorites, and Georgia pulling off a not-unthinkable upset against the Tide for the SEC crown. Remember, the Bulldogs were in great shape for about a half in last year’s national championship game — before Bama stormed back to force overtime and eventually win. If UGA avenges that loss on Saturday, the committee would have a very tricky choice on its hands.
Clemson, Oklahoma and Ohio State win; Alabama loses.
Chances of happening: 19 percent
Likely playoff field: Clemson (>99 percent), Georgia (98), Ohio State (66), Oklahoma (62)
Others: Notre Dame (60 percent), Alabama (13)
This is the combination the selection committee has to be fearing the most, in part because it could happen so easily. It would simply require the Tigers, Sooners and Buckeyes winning a trio of games as favorites, and Georgia pulling off a not-unthinkable upset against the Tide for the SEC crown. Remember, the Bulldogs were in great shape for about a half in last year’s national championship game — before Bama stormed back to force overtime and eventually win. If UGA avenges that loss on Saturday, the committee would have a very tricky choice on its hands.
On Murph & Andy today, Tommy Birch said that it’s not guaranteed the Sugar Bowl takes Texas if they lose and OU goes to CFP. He implied they could get some sort of waiver to not take a Big XII team. I thought it’s been establish the Sugar Bowl is taking a Big XII team. He must not read the forums on an hourly basis. Strange.
Sugar will take a Big 12 team. What team does Tommy Birch think they would take instead?
The 13th data point was only useful against Big IIXII teams before the championship game.
Brett McMurphy's latest update:
Camping World Bowl – Dec. 28 (ACC vs. Big 12)
Projection: NC State vs. Iowa State
https://watchstadium.com/news/brett...ll-bowl-projections-after-week-13-11-28-2018/
Camping World Bowl – Dec. 28 (ACC vs. Big 12)
Projection: NC State vs. Iowa State
https://watchstadium.com/news/brett...ll-bowl-projections-after-week-13-11-28-2018/
He has West Virginia vs Washington State in the Alamo. There would be 10 people at that game
Yep, could get pretty good tv ratings though with Leach vs. Holgorsen/Grier (maybe).
There is some thought out there that the Bowls care just as much now on what their tv rating is than how many tickets/hotels are bought. I still find that hard to believe but that's a theory out there.
There seems to be a trend in people thinking the Alamo will take WV over us. No idea if that’s their guess (probably) or stuff they are hearing (probably aren’t tracking mid-tier bowl rumors too closely).
There would be no national meltdown whatsoever. Ohio State is ESPN's media darling and they would spend weeks convincing everyone Ohio State deserved it.
There are some good reasons for them to care about tv ratings. Media contract will cover a lot of the cost of hosting the event. Bowls promote tourism and are one big infomercial for the city. Ratings are important for both of those cases.
OU wins they are in Playoff....I dont care how much tOSU runs the score up on a very avg NW team...If OU wins TX will go to SUgar...Birch is flat our wrong. Big 12 is contracted with the Sugar and in said contract it states that if the big 12 champion goes to CFP the de facto big 12 rep is the next team..Tx.
So it really doesnt matter..Big 12 will get 2 in the NY 6 regardless prob...Unless OU wins and doesnt get the CFP.
Lets assume Big 12 gets 2 in NY6....I have a hard time believe the Alamo would not choose the 3rd place big 12 team next in line in ISU, which would be ISU biggest bowl destination to date(in last 30 years anyway.)...I find it very hard to believe Alamo thinks WV would bring more fans than ISU.
There is also a very good chance Grier does not play in bowl game...Which would impact things as well.
Alamo would be a great reward for the team.
So it really doesnt matter..Big 12 will get 2 in the NY 6 regardless prob...Unless OU wins and doesnt get the CFP.
Lets assume Big 12 gets 2 in NY6....I have a hard time believe the Alamo would not choose the 3rd place big 12 team next in line in ISU, which would be ISU biggest bowl destination to date(in last 30 years anyway.)...I find it very hard to believe Alamo thinks WV would bring more fans than ISU.
There is also a very good chance Grier does not play in bowl game...Which would impact things as well.
Alamo would be a great reward for the team.
Well, realistically we have a 2/3 chance to be in a dome for the bowl this year.
Alamo Bowl (Alamodome)
Texas Bowl (Reliant Stadium)
Camping World Bowl is outdoors.
