I don't think it's my scenario. Recent court rulings point heavily toward players becoming employees. They will collectively bargain work rules.
So yes, the existing Olympic Sport development model will cease. Olympic Sports will need to fund their sport independently based on donors and ticket sales. If a school can not fund a sport at the ultra-competitive level, then those sports might exist like Club Sports do on campuses today. Wrestling might be a good example where an Iowa, Nebraska, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, etc. can support at the highest levels. But other schools like an Illinois, Rutgers, North Carolina, etc. might choose to compete at a club level or drop.
I have said this multiple times in prior posts. This money grab by the Big10/SEC isn't meant to benefit the blue bloods like Ohio State, Michigan, Texas, Alabama, Penn State, etc. They already make between $175M-$250M in revenue annually. Their greed is to keep up with each other and make sure they have the nicest toys (aka pay coaches most, best facilities, etc.)
It's the 2nd tier of Big10/SEC schools that fall in the $140M-$175M revenue range today that will suddenly have $40-$50M more to fund player compensation than their Big12/ACC peers. Specifically, schools at the
lower end of this 2nd tier like: Arkansas ($152M), Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, Wisconsin and Missouri ($141M). Plus bottom tier Big10 schools like Purdue ($115M), Rutgers, Mississippi State, Maryland ($107M) that will suddenly have $40M-$50M more of new INCREMENTAL money than Big12/ACC schools to pay players through NIL or salary to come to their universities.
If your a 3 star HS football player and while on their campus recruiting visits has:
- A Big 10 coach from Iowa, Purdue, Illinois, etc. offering the kid $300k annually plus a full ride scholarship plus NIL opportunities. The $300k is paid to All Big10 football players from a $25M compensation fund that each Big10 University had set aside from their $90M Big10 TV deal (includes CFP $)
- A Big12 coach from Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State or Oklahoma State offers the same kid $175k annually plus a full ride scholarship plus NIL opportunities. The $175k is paid to EACH Big12 football player from a $15M compensation fund that each Big12 University had set aside from their $45M Big12 TV deal (includes CFP $).
So where do you think the kid (and his family) will decide to play football at a Big10 (or SEC) school or at a Big12 or ACC school?
And BTW- since the Big12 & ACC schools are ony getting maybe $5-$10M annually of incremental TV money from the new CFP, they had to cut the majority of their Olympic Sports to fund the $15M player compensation pool. The Big10/SEC schools were able to fund entirely from only part of their new TV money and most Big10 schools did not have to make severe cuts to Olympic Sports.