Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

2speedy1

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Lots of good info in that and pretty spot on. I really don't think there will be anything that happens quickly at this point. Everyone in the PAC will need some time to evaluate their options.

As for the ACC, I don't see ESPN working with anyone to try to get around the GOR or helping to dissolve the conference. I'm sure ESPN would be fine with having a few more marquee brands in their flagship conference, but at what cost?

With no ACC, they'd lose a good amount of inventory. It would nuke their chances of having the #3 conference, gift wrapping that for the Big XII and Fox. And it might be what forces ND into a conference, which would undoubtedly be the Big 10, which would be another huge win for Fox.
This might be exactly why the SEC seemed to slow everything down in the last few days. ESPN, may have realized what you are saying and talked to them.

Right now:
ESPN owns ACC rights Cheap
ESPN will own SEC rights
Fox will own B1G rights
Big 12 up for bid
PAC 12 up for bid

If SEC pulls from ESPN owned ACC, some brands, end up in B1G, a loss to Fox, some end up in Big 12, something that has to be bid/negotiated for.

I think its better for ESPN to have the SEC sit tight for a few years, let the B1G contract come out, let the Pac and Big 12 do what they are going to do and get negotiated. Otherwise they could essentially blow up 2-3 conferences and in the end lose almost all of that content, or have to overpay to keep it.
 
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AlaCyclone

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Lots of good info in that and pretty spot on. I really don't think there will be anything that happens quickly at this point. Everyone in the PAC will need some time to evaluate their options.

As for the ACC, I don't see ESPN working with anyone to try to get around the GOR or helping to dissolve the conference. I'm sure ESPN would be fine with having a few more marquee brands in their flagship conference, but at what cost?

With no ACC, they'd lose a good amount of inventory. It would nuke their chances of having the #3 conference, gift wrapping that for the Big XII and Fox. And it might be what forces ND into a conference, which would undoubtedly be the Big 10, which would be another huge win for Fox.
Just my personal opinion from watching 50 + years of Notre Dame football as a non-Irish fan. What in the hell are they doing? They are a Midwestern School with GREAT rivals in the B1G + USC and Navy. Every year, they hang with and play 5 ACC schools diminishes their brand. Not sure why the Independent thing is so important - when they have to become less attractive to do it. Join the B1G and BE NOTRE DAME! Just my rant as a non-ND, non-Catholic CFB fan who actually enjoys watching them play when they play intersting teams and games.
 

cymonw1980

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Just my personal opinion from watching 50 + years of Notre Dame football as a non-Irish fan. What in the hell are they doing? They are a Midwestern School with GREAT rivals in the B1G + USC and Navy. Every year, they hang with and play 5 ACC schools diminishes their brand. Not sure why the Independent thing is so important - when they have to become less attractive to do it. Join the B1G and BE NOTRE DAME! Just my rant as a non-ND, non-Catholic CFB fan who actually enjoys watching them play when they play intersting teams and games.

disagree... I think joining the b10 just makes them another team. If they are a middle of the pack b10 team (probably what they would have been most years), I think it's a negative to their brand. It's 5 ACC games.... they have 7 other games they can schedule against anyone (USC, Mich, etc.). There are some ACC games that are fun/rivals for ND.. UNC, Clemson, Miami, FSU, GT, BC, Pitt. Agree, overall, better to play b10, but just schedule some b10 schools + usc + 5 acc...
 

ripvdub

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As much as i hate to say it, but if ND joined the B1G, their SoS increases dramatically. No more picking n choosing sisters of the poor on the schedule every other week and guaranteeing 10 wins a year, almost. That does more damage to the brand more than anything.
 

AuH2O

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1. ND has options, and doesnt need to do anything right away.
2. Adding schools to the ACC does not break the GoR it is separate, So any school that wants to join the ACC would have to sign on to their current GoR through 2036, it could increase the per team money that way because they could renegotiate the amount, but more likely it would just add the amount of value for the team average meaning no real per team increase.
3. The ACC GoR is a huge barrier to leave. Exit fees are 3X yearly conference pay. So 100-120M, Plus GoR, meaning if a team were to buy it out it for say 2024-36 it would be an additional $300M on top of above exit fees. But there is no reason for the ACC to let anyone buy it out, similar to the Big 12, meaning they could do whatever they want with those teams games, and keep any and all money from them for that entire time. Doubtful any conference is willing to risk taking someone and not get any money for them pending a lawsuit, and doubtful a school is willing to risk having to pay minimum half a billion dollars to leave. Unlikely any movement to or from the ACC outside of an "alliance" Unless more than half the conference votes to leave. which means a lot of things have to get in line between 8+ teams and 2+ conferences minimum to actually make that work, and the way these are all done under the table that is not happening.
I think the thing people seem to forget about GoR, is that you can divvy up enough teams to the Big 10, SEC and Big 12 to dissolve it, but no more than four woyluld go to one league, all would have to happen at the same time. So basically it would take collusion. None of these teams in the ACC, Clemson included are worth the expense to get them out. They would be on their own. Clemson is not awesome on TV given their insane success and prime TV slots.
 

madguy30

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As much as i hate to say it, but if ND joined the B1G, their SoS increases dramatically. No more picking n choosing sisters of the poor on the schedule every other week and guaranteeing 10 wins a year, almost. That does more damage to the brand more than anything.

It would increase, but don't they regularly play Michigan and Michigan State?

Then it's Penn State and Ohio State and after that it's a random selection of teams/programs that can be as good as bad.
 

2speedy1

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I think the thing people seem to forget about GoR, is that you can divvy up enough teams to the Big 10, SEC and Big 12 to dissolve it, but no more than four woyluld go to one league, all would have to happen at the same time. So basically it would take collusion. None of these teams in the ACC, Clemson included are worth the expense to get them out. They would be on their own. Clemson is not awesome on TV given their insane success and prime TV slots.
Exactly. I dont see that level of collusion actually happening.

Unless there were 8+ that wanted to go to a single conference and the single conference wanted all at the same time, I am not sure how you would get it done.

I cant see 4 going to B1G, 4 to the SEC and 4 to the Big 12, and getting it all worked out at the same time under the table and everyone on the same page and happy, to make it work. And I would say at least half would have to be going to the SEC and B1G in order for them to vote to dissolve. The others would find a landing spot.
 
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WhoISthis

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1. ND has options, and doesnt need to do anything right away.
2. Adding schools to the ACC does not break the GoR it is separate, So any school that wants to join the ACC would have to sign on to their current GoR through 2036, it could increase the per team money that way because they could renegotiate the amount, but more likely it would just add the amount of value for the team average meaning no real per team increase.
3. The ACC GoR is a huge barrier to leave. Exit fees are 3X yearly conference pay. So 100-120M, Plus GoR, meaning if a team were to buy it out it for say 2024-36 it would be an additional $300M on top of above exit fees. But there is no reason for the ACC to let anyone buy it out, similar to the Big 12, meaning they could do whatever they want with those teams games, and keep any and all money from them for that entire time. Doubtful any conference is willing to risk taking someone and not get any money for them pending a lawsuit, and doubtful a school is willing to risk having to pay minimum half a billion dollars to leave. Unlikely any movement to or from the ACC outside of an "alliance" Unless more than half the conference votes to leave. which means a lot of things have to get in line between 8+ teams and 2+ conferences minimum to actually make that work, and the way these are all done under the table that is not happening.

What he misses about #3 is that an ACC civil war by 4-6 schools legally challenging to leave already represents a loss to the schools that remain.

No conference during the long case, in which some think the schools wanting out could just leave before anything was resolved. Even if they win the case, they still won't be in a P2, are likely blackballed by ESPN, and if ESPN controls the "3rd" conference, they are worse off athletically. They'd potentially be ostracized, and potentially they just win being back in a bruised ACC. The payment is likely be amortized even if they did win back rights on the year(s) during the case.

And if they lost, and we've seen stranger things in court, it would be game over.

It is the madman tactic. And 6 schools losing out on $800 million over 14 years has reason to play that more than 8 schools worried about losing out on maybe $20 million if the aforementioned schools leave, perhaps less. The costs are asymmetrical enough that settlement is likely if the schools with P2 homes want it. That's why the UNC beat reporter is getting fed the "6 schools legally challenging the GOR could crumble ACC"

Schools are risk averse, an offer to be in the "3rd" conference for a premium to the current deal is the leftovers extracting value from the GOR, and avoiding having no home (if winning) vs having no home and no money (if losing).

This could be why ESPN is pushing the SEC doesn't want to expand angle, as the only real winner from the ACC schools trying to force their way to P2 is FOX/BIG. Far different risk/reward if there is no P2 home to chase. FOX overpaying for 2 schools would be a worthy subsidy if it led to ESPN either having to pay more for assets it already controls and FOX getting ND
 
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Acylum

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Can we get a two sentence summary? That thing is way TFL;DR

  1. ND's in no hurry to join a conference so long as they're not leaving so much money on the table they can't compete on the field, they still have access to the playoffs, and they have a home for their non-football sports.
  2. The ACC GOR seems to have no way around it. Buying it out isn't economically feasible for the foreseeable future. Dissolving the conference seems unlikely as 8 teams would need a better landing spot. Another decade plus of making significantly less than the SEC and Big 10 could result in the ACC not having any programs that would interest either the Big 10 or SEC by the time they do become available.
  3. The Big 10 isn't making another move until ND makes a decision. ND's not making a decision while the ACC is viable. See point #1. Repeat.

1. ND has options, and doesnt need to do anything right away.
2. Adding schools to the ACC does not break the GoR it is separate, So any school that wants to join the ACC would have to sign on to their current GoR through 2036, it could increase the per team money that way because they could renegotiate the amount, but more likely it would just add the amount of value for the team average meaning no real per team increase.
3. The ACC GoR is a huge barrier to leave. Exit fees are 3X yearly conference pay. So 100-120M, Plus GoR, meaning if a team were to buy it out it for say 2024-36 it would be an additional $300M on top of above exit fees. But there is no reason for the ACC to let anyone buy it out, similar to the Big 12, meaning they could do whatever they want with those teams games, and keep any and all money from them for that entire time. Doubtful any conference is willing to risk taking someone and not get any money for them pending a lawsuit, and doubtful a school is willing to risk having to pay minimum half a billion dollars to leave. Unlikely any movement to or from the ACC outside of an "alliance" Unless more than half the conference votes to leave. which means a lot of things have to get in line between 8+ teams and 2+ conferences minimum to actually make that work, and the way these are all done under the table that is not happening.
Lol. Sums this thread up perfectly.
 
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2speedy1

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What he misses about #3 is that an ACC civil war by 4-6 schools legally challenging to leave already represents a loss to the schools that remain.

No conference during the long case, in which some think the schools wanting out could just leave before anything was resolved. Even if they win the case, they still won't be in a P2, are likely blackballed by ESPN, and if ESPN controls the "3rd" conference, they are worse off athletically. They'd potentially be ostracized, and potentially they just win being back in a bruised ACC. The payment is likely be amortized even if they did win back rights on the year(s) during the case.

And if they lost, and we've seen stranger things in court, it would be game over.

It is the madman tactic. And 6 schools losing out on $800 million over 14 years has reason to play that more than 8 schools worried about losing out on maybe $20 million if the aforementioned schools leave, perhaps less. The costs are asymmetrical enough that settlement is likely if the schools with P2 homes want it. That's why the UNC beat reporter is getting fed the "6 schools legally challenging the GOR could crumble ACC"

Schools are risk averse, an offer to be in the "3rd" conference for a premium to the current deal is the leftovers extracting value from the GOR, and avoiding having no home (if winning) vs having no home and no money (if losing).

This could be why ESPN is pushing the SEC doesn't want to expand angle, as the only real winner from the ACC schools trying to force their way to P2 is FOX/BIG. Far different risk/reward if there is no P2 home to chase. FOX overpaying for 2 schools would be a worthy subsidy if it led to ESPN either having to pay more for assets it already controls and FOX getting ND
 
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WhoISthis

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Who really wins if this goes to court? In terms of realignment?

If the schools trying to leave win in court, they win in realignment 100%.

If the schools trying to prevent others from leaving win in court, they only maybe win in realignment. Does the now bloodied ACC get back together? Do they find a better conference than the "3rd" ESPN likely could setup for them if they did not challenge? Where are they playing while it is in court?

If the schools seeking to leave lose in court, as long as the costs were less than $800 million it was worth a try and they could presumably settle to go back to ACC,

If the schools trying to uphold the GOR lose in court, well, it is game over for a few. Which it is come 2036 for a few too, so risk-adjusted, they'd settle out of court to get value from the GOR, locking in a sufficient realignment solution that likely pays them more than their current ACC deal
 

ISUTex

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Just my personal opinion from watching 50 + years of Notre Dame football as a non-Irish fan. What in the hell are they doing? They are a Midwestern School with GREAT rivals in the B1G + USC and Navy. Every year, they hang with and play 5 ACC schools diminishes their brand. Not sure why the Independent thing is so important - when they have to become less attractive to do it. Join the B1G and BE NOTRE DAME! Just my rant as a non-ND, non-Catholic CFB fan who actually enjoys watching them play when they play intersting teams and games.


Easy answer. Notre Dame hates the Big 10. They have their own TV network, and they are a national school that plays all over the country every year. Those are all a big deal to Notre Dame, their fans and especially their alumni.
 
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KidSilverhair

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Whoa. Were you, like, an actual paid copy editor…where that was actually a significant portion of your day-to-day job duties?

If so, that’s amazing. My mom was a switchboard operator while in school, so I’m always intrigued to meet people with wild, antiquated past job experience.
I worked as a copy editor/proofreader in the advertising department of the Rochester Post-Bulletin in 1988-89, going over display ads and auction/boxed ads that ran in the classified section. While proofreading fit my nitpicky/detail oriented self, it was the first time I got paid for it. It was a neat time with a fun group of people - the paper had only recently switched over to computer typesetting for the ads, so the old guys putting them together still grumbled about how the old way was better.

After about a year I moved to the city desk assistant position in the newsroom - that was a lot of writing obituaries, rewriting news releases for filler stories, helping customers who had items for the newsroom, and (my favorite) going through the archives to find local items for the This Day In History feature.

After about a year of that I moved up to an actual copy editor for two weekly publications the paper printed, Agri-News and Successful Business. That’s where I edited stories, worked with reporters to clarify parts of their articles, wrote headlines and photo captions, and started to learn page layout. I got hired by the FAA not long after that, and that was the end of my newspaper career. But I still catch misspelled words a lot - it’s really bad with the on-screen titles and graphics of just about every local TV station, especially on the weekends (but the national networks aren’t perfect either!).