Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[Trice]

I feel like Warren could be Fox's (or another media entities) mouthpiece. His comments are basically the kill shot for anyone hoping the pac sticks together.

Sure seems like it, and yet I didn't see that reflected in reporters' comments on Twitter in real time, or in the coverage afterward. Maybe I'm missing it.

Warren acted in his own interests. He wants to keep Oregon etc. from signing a GOR just in case the B1G wants them. If it’s a favor to the schools it’s only incidental. His actions were just meant to be in the B1G’s interest.

I'm well aware. My point was that they all have a better understanding of where they stand now, which while painful is better than uncertainty.

 

[CascadeClone]

Tell me the last time a P5 conference raided another P5 conference, then a few weeks later went back for more. What you’re saying doesn’t make any sense.

True. It might be the Irish question. B1G might have been trying a 2 step to get ND by taking USC first to pressure them. The question now is what school (or 3) go best with ND, or if no ND then which 2 or 4.
It might just be they are keeping options open while ND is in the wind.

 

[JP4CY]

B10 needs schools close to USC and UCLA so that makes Cal and Stanford more valuable in the B10 than they are in the P12.

No, the B1G doesn't need schools close to USC and UCLA. This is ALL about finances, period. This is how it's going to be for the foreseeable future.

 

[2speedy1]

Tell me the last time a P5 conference raided another P5 conference, then a few weeks later went back for more. What you’re saying doesn’t make any sense.

I believe someone told me about a month ago Big 10 adding a team in California didnt make sense either. When did any of this follow any rules, or patterns.

This stuff changes every other day.

Hell I remember teams joining a conference, to only later decide nah, maybe we good later, after others defected. There have been some crazy things in realignment over the years, when you think about the Big East, and the MWC, and the ACC etc.

I can look at my history where multiple people said USC and UCLA would never be added to the B1G a couple months ago, with my posts getting dumbs and disagrees for saying such. Yet just a few weeks later, it happened.

This stuff is about money. And when they are dealing with this amount of money they are doing a lot of deals and anything is possible.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Sure seems like it, and yet I didn't see that reflected in reporters' comments on Twitter in real time, or in the coverage afterward. Maybe I'm missing it.




I'm well aware. My point was that they all have a better understanding of where they stand now, which while painful is better than uncertainty.

Again warren didn’t name names, an annonamous source did and we have all seen how bad a lot of unnamed sources have been.

 

[Acylum]

Personally I agree with this take. However the Cali schools approached the big ten with an ultimatum not the other way around. So it’s possible they made the immediate move and then are going to pick up the rest after it happened. With a media rights deal expected this week or very early next I wouldn’t be shocked if realignment was out off for a bit but their could be language written in the contract for a couple specific schools to add. Won’t know for sure until the deal is released.

USC and UCLA gave the b1g an ultimatum? Lol.

 

[Trice]

Again warren didn’t name names, an annonamous source did and we have all seen how bad a lot of unnamed sources have been.

Even if the B1G doesn't poach any more Pac teams, it's going to poach Pac time slots. The value of that league went down today no matter what happens.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

USC and UCLA gave the b1g an ultimatum? Lol.

That’s legit what was reported and confirmed by the big ten and the schools, big ten wasn’t planning on expanding which was why the media deal was almost done then had to be opened ba k up

 

[2speedy1]

Personally I agree with this take. However the Cali schools approached the big ten with an ultimatum not the other way around. So it’s possible they made the immediate move and then are going to pick up the rest after it happened. With a media rights deal expected this week or very early next I wouldn’t be shocked if realignment was out off for a bit but their could be language written in the contract for a couple specific schools to add. Won’t know for sure until the deal is released.

That is what is being said, but that is just legal speak. They have to say it that way to protect them from lawsuits. You will never know the truth on who contacted who first, and it was initially done with back channel contacts anyway.

 

[WhoISthis]

Tell me the last time a P5 conference raided another P5 conference, then a few weeks later went back for more. What you’re saying doesn’t make any sense.

This looking back at P5 history as though it is a good sample is amiss.

We're in a P2 era, and we've never had an era of realignment like this one. USC and UCLA just desperately lobbied FOX for a BIG spot, leaving their longtime conference. And the BIG just gut punched its traditional partner. Coupled with OUT last summer, everything is on the table. The BIG doesn't give a **** about a month gap in between.

We've never before had two schools apply without knowing they are locks (Oregon and UW)

If anything, the BIG has done all they can to drag this out. It seems like they're trying to shake the 4 corner schools out. Get dissolution- no one wants the PAC brand to live on with Mountain West schools.

 

[12191987]

Stanford to the Big 10 checks a lot of boxes. Location, Academics, Research, ND draw, Prestige. etc. Cal not as much, but more than they do for the Big 12. And I think Cal and Stanford have tied themselves together similar to what USCLA and ORWA have.

Ehhh….ND draw I get.

I’m not sure Stanford is markedly different than UC Berkeley on academics, prestige, or *location*. Research in raw dollars arguably more so, but that is due to the associated medical school being UCSF (which has no undergraduate programs).

Being a public school (and a Land-grant university at that) probably serves as a bigger differentiator than anything other than the ND-bait thing…

Regardless, even if you want to quibble over the at best nominal advantages Stanford has in these areas, UC Berkeley absolutely moves the needle compared to the Big 10 at large. If these things matter, that is…

As far as tying themselves together, ehhh…maybe in the sense of OU/UT preserving their rivalry if they can. Hard to believe either would turn down the Big 10 if an offer was extended to only one.

 

[2speedy1]

That’s legit what was reported and confirmed by the big ten and the schools, big ten wasn’t planning on expanding which was why the media deal was almost done then had to be opened ba k up

Yes because they all are being 100% open and honest about everything. None would keep anything from the public or try to mislead anyone, especially regarding realignment. That would just be crazy talk.

 

[isucy86]

Explain to me why, if there are other PAC schools the b1g wants, they wouldn’t do it all in one fell swoop.

IMO the Big10 is waiting on ND.

If ND joins, the Big10 takes 3-5 more Pac12 teams. If ND doesn't join they take 2 more teams.

ND has stratosphere media rights value- maybe top 5. That can compensate for a group of schools whose value might be at or slightly below the projected average school payouts in the new Big10 contract.

Interesting how quiet Washington is during the realignment talk. I think they know they are Big10 bound.

The big question is how long does the Big10 wait on ND. Could it be a year? Or more?

I do think the Big10 would prefer to make one final group of additions instead of 2 at a time.

 

[Acylum]

That’s legit what was reported and confirmed by the big ten and the schools, big ten wasn’t planning on expanding which was why the media deal was almost done then had to be opened ba k up

What was the ultimatum? “By God, you better invite us right now or we’ll ….. we’ll just stay in the PAC and keep hemorrhaging money.”

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Yes because they all are being 100% open and honest about everything. None would keep anything from the public or try to mislead anyone, especially regarding realignment. That would just be crazy talk.

Well on one hand we have confirmed reports from the schools and the big ten about what happened and on the other we have total speculation. Maybe it’s just my science brain coming through but I tend to lean on the confirmed reporting from the two parties instead of speculation.

 

[BCClone]

Seriously?! Texas too?!

Yep, when the package was switched to + they managed to get a cut also.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

What was the ultimatum? “By God, you better invite us right now or we’ll ….. we’ll just stay in the PAC and keep hemorrhaging money.”

Or we will go reach out to the SEC? Would be a horrific cultural fit but the SEC would take them just as much as the big ten did.

 

[Acylum]

Or we will go reach out to the SEC? Would be a horrific cultural fit but the SEC would take them just as much as the big ten did.

The coastal elites would drop football before going to the SEC and the b1g is well aware of that.

 

[WhoISthis]

Explain to me why, if there are other PAC schools the b1g wants, they wouldn’t do it all in one fell swoop.

Because the BIG is new to this and they can afford to wait. They are a P2 and they don't need to be very calculating. As long as UW and Oregon and all others do not to sign a long GOR with ESPN they don't need it to take in one move, and it sure seems like FOX/BIG have done their part to prevent that.

This is still the same BIG and Warren from the Alliance that got caught with their pants down on OUT. But USC had to get out, and it was obvious to all but the BIG, which had some P2 blindness.

Their plan is still coming together, and those 4 schools are possibilities. That does not mean all 4 will be in.

Don't think like the leftovers. This is P2 shopping at its leisure.

 

[12191987]

Cal checks most of those same boxes. Same location, better academics than nearly all in BIG, research, prestige (this is the "peer" group BIG we're talking about).

The Big 12 can't afford to prioritize those items. The BIG's interest in Cal means little as to whether we would prioritize them.

In all fairness, a bad accident on the Bay Bridge could make that 3-4 mile difference getting to SFO a much bigger deal…so location could be an advantage for Stanford.

That said, don’t most teams charter? Flying into Oakland is a huge advantage for Cal!