Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[isu81]

The State of North Carolina is a very nice growing market.

2 of the top 25 TV markets and 5 cities bigger than the biggest city in Iowa. Plus a demographic that likes sports.

 

[HawaiiClone]

2 of the top 25 TV markets and 5 cities bigger than the biggest city in Iowa. Plus a demographic that likes sports.

Was curious to see how size of Des Moines metro compared to metros other than Raleigh and Charlotte in NC and found that it is ahead of all of them and ranked 82nd.

Metropolitan statistical area - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Was curious to see how size of Des Moines metro compared to metros other than Raleigh and Charlotte in NC and found that it is ahead of all of them and ranked 82nd.

Metropolitan statistical area - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Des Moines is also behind Greensboro/High Point/Winston-Salem (the “Triad”), though not by much.

Charlotte and Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill (the “Triangle”) are all much larger.

Edit: your link separates out W-S but that’s not how people in NC think of the regions. So with the full Triad included it’s a solid amount larger than the DSM metro, and it’s the #3 metro in NC.

 

[Clonehomer]

If the B1G is at 20, SEC 16, Big 12 16 when the ACC gets picked apart:

These schools will get in the B1G/SEC without much doubt:
Miami
Florida State
North Carolina
Virginia
Clemson
Notre Dame

These schools would get in the Big 12 at worst, and probably 2 of them are getting in the SEC or B1G:
Virginia Tech
NC State
Pitt
Louisville
Syracuse

These schools might get in somewhere but might get demoted:
Duke
Boston College
Georgia Tech
Wake Forest

If you give 4 of these schools to each of the 3 conferences, you’re left with 3 to demote.

By 2036 when the ACC is open for business I think that basketball may matter a bit then. If the power conferences split off and start their own basketball tournament, suddenly those basketball powers are worth something. CBS pays the NCAA roughly $1B annually for the NCAA tournament. If that goes to the best basketball conferences then I'd guess the conferences would want good basketball schools get get a bigger piece of that.

So by then, maybe those basketball schools have a chip to play in this realignment game.

 

[Trice]

Dodd is confirming what McMurphy reported yesterday about the B1G eyeing some remaining Pac schools. Seems odd that the B1G would play this out so publicly, but maybe they don't care about secrecy anymore now that they got their biggest prizes. Or maybe it's all gamesmanship.

Crickets from Wilner, Canzano, and Mandel, who published a mailbag column today and didn't address it. Of course, all their Pac sources could once again be recalibrating and nobody knows what to think yet.

Big Ten evaluating Cal, Oregon, Stanford and Washington from Pac-12 as further expansion considered

Could the Big Ten balloon to a 20-team (or more) league?

www.cbssports.com

 

[HawaiiClone]

Des Moines is also behind Greensboro/High Point/Winston-Salem (the “Triad”), though not by much.

Charlotte and Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill (the “Triangle”) are all much larger.

Edit: your link separates out W-S but that’s not how people in NC think of the regions. So with the full Triad included it’s a solid amount larger than the DSM metro, and it’s the #3 metro in NC.

Thanks for the correction. Checked a map and saw how close those cities are to each other. At the far right of the row with Winston-Salem they show what you are saying with the Triad being a Consolidated Staristical Area.

 

[LLCoolCY]

Dodd is confirming what McMurphy reported yesterday about the B1G eyeing some remaining Pac schools. Seems odd that the B1G would play this out so publicly, but maybe they don't care about secrecy anymore now that they got their biggest prizes. Or maybe it's all gamesmanship.

Crickets from Wilner, Canzano, and Mandel, who published a mailbag column today and didn't address it. Of course, all their Pac sources could once again be recalibrating and nobody knows what to think yet.

Big Ten evaluating Cal, Oregon, Stanford and Washington from Pac-12 as further expansion considered

Could the Big Ten balloon to a 20-team (or more) league?

www.cbssports.com

If the rumors that Washington and Oregon were demanding an unequal share in the next PAC12 GOR and the conference was listening. The only way they could make that request is if they actually had a path to the B1G known. It would also make since if the rumor that the PAC12 wanted a 12 year GOR to agree to give the stability (which Ore/Wash would balk at). Lot of the dots are connect if Big10 is thinking of taking 2 more schools and get the WC locked down.

If nothing else Warren's comments that they will think about expansion soon means Ore/Wash will be reluctant to sign any GOR that has any restriction from them moving thus the PAC12 is in trouble. Fox is the puppet master here and I hope they have the B12 in mind as their preferred P3 choice. Considering they didn't even bid on the PAC12 rights it appears to be the case.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

wonder what’s going on at a Big 12-skeptical corner school right now, especially Utah.

You aren’t getting a GOR from Oregon etc. At best you get a contract that ESPN says will plummet if Oregon leaves.

And if the B1G takes those four, are you certain the Big 12 will still be there for you? Is it 100% guaranteed that the Big 12’s media partners say taking all 4 of the corner schools is better financially than just taking the best 2? And aren’t you worried about not making that cut with BYU already claiming your state?

Maybe the time is now to lock in your spot in the future P3. It might not be there later.

 

[Trice]

If the rumors that Washington and Oregon were demanding an unequal share in the next PAC12 GOR and the conference was listening. The only way they could make that request is if they actually had a path to the B1G known. It would also make since if the rumor that the PAC12 wanted a 12 year GOR to agree to give the stability (which Ore/Wash would balk at). Lot of the dots are connect if Big10 is thinking of taking 2 more schools and get the WC locked down.

If those schools truly had a path to the B1G, they're taking it - not using it as a bargaining chip to stay in a league that's going to pay them a lot less than even a reduced-share B1G payout would.

If those rumors of requesting unequal shares are true, it seems more likely that it's simply the biggest brands remaining in the Pac trying to throw their weight around.

 

[MeanDean]

Des Moines is also behind Greensboro/High Point/Winston-Salem (the “Triad”), though not by much.

Charlotte and Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill (the “Triangle”) are all much larger.

Edit: your link separates out W-S but that’s not how people in NC think of the regions. So with the full Triad included it’s a solid amount larger than the DSM metro, and it’s the #3 metro in NC.

Flipping that coin, though, Duke, NCSt and UNC are all within that very small geographical metro area. So the fandom is likely split fairly evenly between those schools. Where DSM is 97% ISU and Iowa, so not diluted as much. So a BIG/SEC split of the two state schools would capture most media attention, leaving Duke out the outs or in the Big XII if we want them at that point.

 

[qwerty]

Flipping that coin, though, Duke, NCSt and UNC are all within that very small geographical metro area. So the fandom is likely split fairly evenly between those schools. Where DSM is 97% ISU and Iowa, so not diluted as much. So a BIG/SEC split of the two state schools would capture most media attention, leaving Duke out the outs or in the Big XII if we want them at that point.

Plus Wake Forest (when they were decent). They are only 80 miles to the west.

 

[LLCoolCY]

If those schools truly had a path to the B1G, they're taking it - not using it as a bargaining chip to stay in a league that's going to pay them a lot less than even a reduced-share B1G payout would.

If those rumors of requesting unequal shares are true, it seems more likely that it's simply the biggest brands remaining in the Pac trying to throw their weight around.

Sure they can ask for a larger piece of the GOR pie but to actually get it they need to have a real treat to leave or go independent for the other teams to agree and sign a GOR where they get less money. They will take the path to the Big 10 if available but I don't think they have it today but could be told they will in 2 years? or when ND finally decides/forced to join the Big 10. Thus they are asking for more why they bide their time. They could also be threating a move to the B12 as their other option but I don't know if that is enough of a threat to get the unequal sharing the Big 10 is and Warren making the comments yesterday backs up their hopes.

 

[HawaiiClone]

Flipping that coin, though, Duke, NCSt and UNC are all within that very small geographical metro area. So the fandom is likely split fairly evenly between those schools. Where DSM is 97% ISU and Iowa, so not diluted as much. So a BIG/SEC split of the two state schools would capture most media attention, leaving Duke out the outs or in the Big XII if we want them at that point.

Yeah, that's going to be interesting to see. Very unique situation they have in the Research Triangle with 3 P5 teams.

 

[cyman05]

Dodd is confirming what McMurphy reported yesterday about the B1G eyeing some remaining Pac schools. Seems odd that the B1G would play this out so publicly, but maybe they don't care about secrecy anymore now that they got their biggest prizes. Or maybe it's all gamesmanship.

Crickets from Wilner, Canzano, and Mandel, who published a mailbag column today and didn't address it. Of course, all their Pac sources could once again be recalibrating and nobody knows what to think yet.

Big Ten evaluating Cal, Oregon, Stanford and Washington from Pac-12 as further expansion considered

Could the Big Ten balloon to a 20-team (or more) league?

www.cbssports.com

Interesting that he notes San Diego st is in play for both the B12 and Pac12

 

[Trice]

Sure they can ask for a larger piece of the GOR pie but to actually get it they need to have a real treat to leave or go independent for the other teams to agree and sign a GOR where they get less money. They will take the path to the Big 10 if available but I don't think they have it today but could be told they will in 2 years? or when ND finally decides/forced to join the Big 10. Thus they are asking for more why they bide their time. They could also be threating a move to the B12 as their other option but I don't know if that is enough of a threat to get the unequal sharing the Big 10 is and Warren making the comments yesterday backs up their hopes.

Hold on, though - your first post was about demanding unequal shares. Now you're talking about actually achieving unequal shares. Two different things.

If Oregon and Washington can go to the B1G, they're going. If they aren't, or don't know yet, they can still request unequal shares - anyone can demand anything at any time, whether it makes sense or not. But they can't hold the threat of the B1G over everyone's head because nobody actually believes they'd stay in the Pac over the B1G under any circumstances.

Which is why the other schools should call Oregon and Washington's bluff, and not acquiesce to their demand.

 

[Clonedogg]

Interesting that he notes San Diego st is in play for both the B12 and Pac12

Ya he's been watching our forums.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Interesting that he notes San Diego st is in play for both the B12 and Pac12

I kinda hope we don’t do this. I wonder if we are floating SDSU as an option to make Big 12 spots appear limited - 5 schools for 4 slots - and try to shake the corner schools loose.

 

[cyman05]

I kinda hope we don’t do this. I wonder if we are floating SDSU as an option to make Big 12 spots appear limited - 5 schools for 4 slots - and try to shake the corner schools loose.

Could be. Probably also a consideration to give another option for a late night game as well as get some ground in California. I assume unlikely to happen but I can see taking a SDSU over a Memphis or USF if you’re at an odd number of schools.

 

[Rods79]

With the caveat, as always, that this guy or his source could be full of sht...he's pretty clearly laid out why the thinking has changed. Seems weird that people think they should pick a side and ride with it until the bitter end.

Ten years ago, the Big 12 nearly ceased to exist. Was someone who reported on that in real time wrong when it ultimately held together? Of course not - the facts changed.

There have been numerous shifts this time around. First, it looked like the Pac was doomed. Then it looked like it might hold. Warren's comments may have shaken things up again. It's fluid and people can change their thinking.

I'm mostly reacting to the extreme position shifts. By all means, go with the flow of info...but these Tweeters sensationalize too much for my taste.

 

[JohnnyFive]

wonder what’s going on at a Big 12-skeptical corner school right now, especially Utah.

You aren’t getting a GOR from Oregon etc. At best you get a contract that ESPN says will plummet if Oregon leaves.

And if the B1G takes those four, are you certain the Big 12 will still be there for you? Is it 100% guaranteed that the Big 12’s media partners say taking all 4 of the corner schools is better financially than just taking the best 2? And aren’t you worried about not making that cut with BYU already claiming your state?

Maybe the time is now to lock in your spot in the future P3. It might not be there later.

A good place to start for them would be to not be complete d*cks to every fan of the Big 12 on twitter