Agreed; if for some reason 3 corner schools will move but one won’t, SDSU is not an awful option for #16.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
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Agreed; if for some reason 3 corner schools will move but one won’t, SDSU is not an awful option for #16.
Cal and Stanford sports aren't worth a single dollar IMO for fan interest and product on the field.
The only reason you grab them is you hope to sell A LOT of BTN subscriptions to cable bundles in the SF MSA.
I'd take Boise St and Gonzaga before taking Cal and Stanford to the Big 12. Academic elitists can STAY AWAY
The only reason you grab them is you hope to sell A LOT of BTN subscriptions to cable bundles in the SF MSA.
I'd take Boise St and Gonzaga before taking Cal and Stanford to the Big 12. Academic elitists can STAY AWAY
I think B1G has been working ND hard to **** or get off the pot, and the comments were designed to get them moving. Signalling they DO indeed have other options and won't wait forever (although, in reality, they will take them now or in 50 years).
It also is a way to pull 20 blocks out of the Pac12 jenga tower at once, but when it falls apart because the Mountain 4 jump first in fear, the Big12 will be taking teams first and be the "bad" guy. They might want to pretend to care about that.
Agree wholeheartedly that Fox (and ESPN) are really pulling the strings of all this. But they seem to have realized that building a 3rd conference with the "meh" inventory is also a money maker, and it is easier to build it up from the Big12 in the middle. Since it has already been poached and the PAC and ACC have yet to be dismembered. Plus, moving the "meh" teams from east or west to the middle is easier than putting Arizona in the ACC for example.
especially if you think long term and you're looking at 20 or more teams. Then you have to start comparing them to the bottom ACC schools that might be available. I don't love adding SDSU but I can see them surviving over a school like Wake Forrest when it's all said and done. Currently, if the big 12 was looking to add a pacific time zone team, it's really only SDSU, Wazzu and Oregon St as options. I get why they would kick the tires.
SDST makes no sense to me other than as a ruse. Or if we just are gonna go ape**** and have 32 teams in the conference...
Friends have been telling me Big12 needs to move now with an announcement of expansion. Brett already said open for business. I bet this escalates for Big12 next week after Brett Yormark officially starts. We know he has been talking, but no decisions are going to be made till he is officially in office.
If Big 10 takes Oregon, Washington, Cal, and Stanford, wonder if SEC answers with Ok State and Kansas for starters.
Before I lived in NC I had no idea how many big cities there were. Tons and tons of people. And growing each year (esp. the Triangle)
Also, this is why NC State would be a fantastic addition (please ignore the bias that I am alumni)
I don't see why they would. They could have gotten those teams already probably at a decent price.
I think they're probably working with ACC programs for their next move.
Would they bring in more $ for the SEC though? Otherwise its just adding more pieces to the pie, and the SEC doesn't need to add anyone.
The Gonzaga football team hasn't lost a game in over 80 years.
Maybe its more about the P5 conferences being pragmatic and not creating a culture where realignment is dragging on for the next 15 years.
Let the Big10/SEC divide up Big12/Pac12/ACC schools that make them money. Have the Big12/Pac12/ACC also-rans that support a $40-$50M initial annual rights fee/school consolidate.
The Big12 & Pac12 piece can happen naturally because media rights agreements end over the next 3 years. The ACC will need some nudging, but if almost all of those schools have a landing place AND can make more money than the current ACCN agreement- maybe a win/win can be found all around. For P5 schools and ESPN/Fox
The Big10 gets Cal, Stanford, ND, Washington, UVA, Duke, BC & Ga Tech (Total 24)
The SEC takes UNC, Clemson, Miami, Florida State (Total 20)
A new conference with new Big12 schools plus: Arizona, ASU, Utah, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, NC State, Wake Forest, Louisville, Pittsburg, Va Tech, Syracuse (24 schools)
Maybe the SEC/Big10 would both prefer to land at 20 teams or could make sense at an odd number like 21 teams (3 seven team divisions). But BTN profitability is highly driven by media market size. So the increased in-market carriage fees for Cal/Stanford (San Fran), Wash (Seattle), BC (Boston), Ga Tech (Atl) could drive their decision more than quality (Oregon).
IMO: Here is the worst scenario for the SEC and ESPN. Notre Dame stays with ACC. Pac 12 folds with the Big 10 and Big 12 getting what they want from the leftovers. The ACC keeps ND. Then does SEC go nuclear and risk a drawn out court battle over GOR by going after Clemson, etc.? In my mind, the only way the Big 10 offers to four more PAC teams is if they are confident the ACC is not going anywhere. Big 10 and SEC are playing a game of chicken right now. No way SEC is going to play second fiddle to no one. But by starting this mess, they have painted themselves into a corner which the only way for them respond is by making some choices that may backfire on them. As much as I hate the Big10, The Big10 almost has the SEC in checkmate and Mandel knows it. The Big10 and the Big 12 are in a win win situation no matter what ND does .
Iowa State baseball levels of success
While I would like to hope, I don't think ISU has a shot at a 24 team Big 10. We would be a bubble team, at that number.
My guess teams ahead of us would be:
ND
Oregon
Washington
Stanford
Cal
UNC
Virginia
Miami
Florida State
Bubble with us:
Duke
GaTech
Pitt
TCU
There is a similar issue in the SEC. What would possibly get us in is if the SEC took several of the above instead. Then we might have a shot.
My guess the SEC would want:
UNC
Virginia
Miami
FSU
Clemson
OK St
AZst
Louisville
Edit: Add Tex Tech and WVU here too.
Bubble teams:
VaTech
NCst
Baylor
TCU
Arizona
I think if the ACC was broken Up the Big 12 would take any of the teams except:
Wake
Syracuse
BC
We could have a shot at a 48 team P2. But it would be close, and it would depend on how the other top choice teams land in the P2.
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The B10 is saying this to keep the 4 schools in limbo, and not jumping ship to the B12. The B10 will not expand again until they have the ND problem solved.Dodd is confirming what McMurphy reported yesterday about the B1G eyeing some remaining Pac schools. Seems odd that the B1G would play this out so publicly, but maybe they don't care about secrecy anymore now that they got their biggest prizes. Or maybe it's all gamesmanship.
Crickets from Wilner, Canzano, and Mandel, who published a mailbag column today and didn't address it. Of course, all their Pac sources could once again be recalibrating and nobody knows what to think yet.
Big Ten evaluating Cal, Oregon, Stanford and Washington from Pac-12 as further expansion considered
Could the Big Ten balloon to a 20-team (or more) league?www.cbssports.com
Give them the "you still have a chance, just hold tight" signal.
The SE corner of the US is not known for its brilliant strategic thinking. Perhaps they felt that the OUT grab would only harm the Big 12, and that the other conferences would stay mostly the same. In reality, they have awoken the B1G giant and provoked it into grabbing every major TV market that it can. The SEC may be surrounded when all this is over.
H
If both the B1G and SEC want to go to 24 then we have a real shot.
The B1G adds:
Washington
Oregon
Cal
Stanford
Notre Dame
UVA
UNC
Miami
The SEC adds:
Florida State
Clemson
Then the SEC would still need six teams from schools including:
Virginia Tech
NC State
Duke
West Virginia
Pitt
Louisville
Syracuse
Oklahoma State
TCU
Baylor
Iowa State
Arizona State
Kansas
Kansas State
Colorado
UCF
Cincinnati
Houston
We could be in the top 6 of that group. The problem is that it's much more likely IMO that the SEC would take 2 of those, rather than 6, and stop at 20 schools.
But say the SEC wants to remain contiguous and add some new states - it can do that with NC State, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Iowa State, and Pitt or Kansas.
You forgot to add Texas Tech and Arizona to that list. Each of which would be in the top half of attractiveness. Iowa State doesn't advance out of that group.
