Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[HFCS]

I think the SEC would raid the ACC before looking west. So, the B1G gets the PAC and SEC gets first dibs on the AAC, then the B1G gets theirs. Then the BIG12 sweeps up as many of the forgotten schools from both conferences as possible.

Boom! Realignment finished for a while.

If it's about football...get FSU/Clemson.

If it's about markets get schools like UVA/UNC/BC/Pitt.

Maybe mix of both.

Big 12 is passed over now. Pac is passed over except for maybe 2 more. Cal, Stanford, Utah, Washington, Arizona and Oregon are not all going to find themselves in B10 or SEC. Probably 2 or 3 will.

 

[HFCS]

Some people actually watch Iowa. Rutgers is getting money for nothing.

 

[isucy86]

I don't think Apple and Amazon are as interested in CFB as B12 fans want to believe. They are viewed like white knights around here, flush with cash and eager to get into the live sports space. But so far we haven't seen much evidence of that beyond message board chatter. The SEC and B1G who have all the leverage and options have signed big deals with the traditional players. Apple and Amazon don't appear to have factored in on either.

I'm just not convinced that second tier college football conferences are the next step these companies want to take for live sports, unless they can scoop us up for bargain basement prices.

Could be. But they might also not want to pay what Big10 & SEC want.

It's probably early in streaming live sports evolution. Apple & Amazon are smartly run companies and want to keep their subscription fee in line. We all saw what happened to Netflix over the last year when they raised their fees.

So Apple & Amazon may feel the Big12 and/or Pac12 are great opportunities to learn the live sport streaming business at 60% of the investment the Big10/SEC would require. That would give either platform less pressure to raise subscription fees.

Or they might feel they can upcharge access to Big12/Pac12 games. But that monthly amount would have to be in the ESPN+ range vs. an amount the Big10 would ask.

 

[Kinch]

Wow, special teams are just...just... a special kind of....

 

[Clonehomer]

If it's about football...get FSU/Clemson.

If it's about markets get schools like UVA/UNC/BC/Pitt.

Maybe mix of both.

Big 12 is passed over now. Pac is passed over except for maybe 2 more. Cal, Stanford, Utah, Washington, Arizona and Oregon are not all going to find themselves in B10 or SEC. Probably 2 or 3 will.

That's how I think of the Big10 as well. Cal and Stanford offer nothing in athletics. Feels like they're being included for academics just in case they need to convince some university presidents to expand. The SF area looks good for the BTN, but I don't see how they move the needle for the OTA partners. They care about actual viewership not population.

 

[legi]

We have been thinking/talking about how Fox/ESPN are trying to drive all the good brands into one conference for their convenience and to lower overall costs. Essentially like a monopoly buyer (monopsony?).

What if B1G flipped the script, and once they get all (or a lot) of the big names/brands/content, they become a monopoly supplier and drive up the price?

What if the B1G just flat out absorbed the rest of the Pac12 and Big12??? Went to (counts toes) 38 teams? Well, maybe skip a couple and go to 36.

Could they then have so much inventory/content they drive up the prices for broadcasters?

Just speculating. But with Warren talking about unionization, maybe B1G is planning to drive all this to the end result of basically a pro league with most of the existing P5 involved, with a different governing structure? And the B1G would drive that governing structure.

Interesting times.

I mean if you want a crazy scenario here is one.
TX and OU change their mind and go to B1G for more money and prestige. SEC is then getting so far behind B1G that SEC teams start to look towards switching sides and asking to join B1G. Then B1G can pick which teams from SEC (or any other conference) to take on to become the one and only top conference (or league at that point) with like 40+ teams. Then they can make their own rules, and Paul Finebaum’s head explodes.

 

[Gonzo]

I mean if you want a crazy scenario here is one.
TX and OU change their mind and go to B1G for more money and prestige. SEC is then getting so far behind B1G that SEC teams start to look towards switching sides and asking to join B1G. Then B1G can pick which teams from SEC (or any other conference) to take on to become the one and only top conference (or league at that point) with like 40+ teams. Then they can make their own rules, and Paul Finebaum’s head explodes.

He's been pretty down today.

 

[VoiceOfReason]

So crazy to think that if the ACC stays together, the Big Ten will be six years into their deal AFTER THIS DEAL IS OVER before the ACC is even going back to the negotiating table. Something tells me the ACC won't make it there, one way or another. Say what you will about the Big Ten, but it's hard to point to any conceivable way they didn't play the hand they were dealt perfectly.

 

[isucy86]

That's how I think of the Big10 as well. Cal and Stanford offer nothing in athletics. Feels like they're being included for academics just in case they need to convince some university presidents to expand. The SF area looks good for the BTN, but I don't see how they move the needle for the OTA partners. They care about actual viewership not population.

Not sure the NFL would take that stance. Not many Green Bays. Sure one could argue college sport fans are more tied to the schools they attended, but there is more viewership upside in Phoenix vs Des Moines. When I lived in Colorado & Minnesota I had a tendency to watch Gopher and Buffalo games- just to be in the loop.

I think cord cutting is what caused the Big10 to take an NFL approach to its media rights and create partnerships with NBC, CBS and Fox. The OTA networks will be available to most of America over the next 7 years.

 

[RustShack]

I agree

In addition -- A big 12 deal in the near term with Amazon or Apple would be the death of the big 12.... IMO.

Moving our ESPN+ games to Amazon would not be the death of the Big12 lol

 

[Kinch]

I mean if you want a crazy scenario here is one.
TX and OU change their mind and go to B1G for more money and prestige. SEC is then getting so far behind B1G that SEC teams start to look towards switching sides and asking to join B1G. Then B1G can pick which teams from SEC (or any other conference) to take on to become the one and only top conference (or league at that point) with like 40+ teams. Then they can make their own rules, and Paul Finebaum’s head explodes.

If Fox wanted to, that scenario would absolutely crush ESPN.

 

[CloneGuy8]

Arizona

 

[Remo Gaggi]

Sure. Nothing says exciting college football than a team that struggles to get more than 200 yards of total offense yet manages to win the game by a score of 9-7. Good stuff.

 

[isucy86]

Moving our ESPN+ games to Amazon would not be the death of the Big12 lol

Its an upgrade over ESPN+. The ESPN interface is average at best. Being on Amazon Prime can't be a bad thing if the NFL decided to put its Thursday Night Game exclusively on Prime this year.

 

[scyclonekid]

It would be amazing if they had a Francon meter with betting from Vegas!!lol!!

 

[jcyclonee]

That's how I think of the Big10 as well. Cal and Stanford offer nothing in athletics. Feels like they're being included for academics just in case they need to convince some university presidents to expand. The SF area looks good for the BTN, but I don't see how they move the needle for the OTA partners. They care about actual viewership not population.

The BIG bets that they can get their network on the primary cable subscription in a metro area and earn about $1 per subscription per month. The Bay Area is a really big market. At this point, the BIG cares more about the subscriptions than the number of viewers as it pertains to schools like Stanford, Maryland, or Rutgers. If cable and large streaming services start pushing back, that's when the BIG has to change their strategy.

 

[Yellow Snow]

 

[theshadow]

Some people actually watch Iowa. Rutgers is getting money for nothing.

And the chicks for free?

 

[JM4CY]

And the chicks for free?

Put Rutgers on Mtv

 

[trajanJ]

I mean if you want a crazy scenario here is one.
TX and OU change their mind and go to B1G for more money and prestige. SEC is then getting so far behind B1G that SEC teams start to look towards switching sides and asking to join B1G. Then B1G can pick which teams from SEC (or any other conference) to take on to become the one and only top conference (or league at that point) with like 40+ teams. Then they can make their own rules, and Paul Finebaum’s head explodes.

No way OuT starts looking at the Big. Their move was about more than just money. Recruiting and the future growth of the sport is South. All the southern and lower midwest HS players want to play in the SEC and that's not just football. No SEC school or future school is leaving the SEC for a northern conference.