Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

Clonehomer

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Today would be a good day for the PAC to release their TV deal. Not only a Friday, but the nation is a bit distracted with other news at the moment.
 

CascadeClone

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Utah is the only surprise on there for me. GT has a huge incremental TV market which still matters to the BTN. Cal is geographic partner for the other west coast adds, great academics, big TV market, and would help salve the UCLA wound. I suppose Utah would be same-ish as Cal -- a smaller TV market but its incremental if you get Stanford first.

But you vet 10 to choose 4, 6, or MAYBE 8 at the most.
 

BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
WTF is this? If I comment on a thread here I'm instantly a troll? Wow.
Didn’t say you were a troll, just the post was trolling. The Oregon state stuff gets mentioned why they aren’t even an option every so many pages. It’s an obvious reason why they would suck down the conference payouts if we took them. We would be doing the PAC a favor. Unless you signed up yesterday or you didn’t any other posts, or hadn’t seen their viewership numbers would be the only way you could seriously ask that question.
 

David Freshman1982

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I get why people are sympatric to both schools, they are like ISU, but in a much worst geographic area. Small but enthusiastic fan bases do not move the needle with ratings, it's nearly impossible to get to each school by plane, and both schools play second fiddle to their more famous state schools, in terms of recruiting and fanbase.

It sucks for them, and I am glad it's not us this time, but we have to worry about the ISU and the B12, not other schools that will be on the short end of the stick when this whole deal falls apart. They will be fine in the MWC.
They may be second fiddle in their broader market (Portland and Seattle), but so are we. So is KSU. So is OSU. I'm sensing a theme here. My point being that even if a school is "second fiddle" in a media market, that doesn't mean having a conference member there doesn't still bring in that media market, at least to a degree. How many KSU grads are there in the KC metro? As many as Oregon St grads in the Portland metro?
 
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David Freshman1982

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Didn’t say you were a troll, just the post was trolling. The Oregon state stuff gets mentioned why they aren’t even an option every so many pages. It’s an obvious reason why they would suck down the conference payouts if we took them. We would be doing the PAC a favor. Unless you signed up yesterday or you didn’t any other posts, or hadn’t seen their viewership numbers would be the only way you could seriously ask that question.
I don't spend a lot of time on bulletin boards because I'm very busy and I don't know that I have anything particularly helpful to add to discussions anyway. But I felt this topic was really interesting to me and as a long-time ISU guy, I totally identify with the shaft those folks are getting at OSU and WSU.
 
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BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
I don't spend a lot of time on bulletin boards because I'm very busy and I don't know that I have anything particularly helpful to add to discussions anyway. But I felt this topic was really interesting to me and as a long-time ISU guy, I totally identify with the shaft those folks are getting at OSU and WSU.
They draw TV ratings similar to MWC teams. Nobody cares about those two teams in their own states. Culture wise they fit, except they are probably $5MM type media pullers.
 
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exCyDing

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It makes you wonder if Kliavkoff is flat-out stalling to try to trap teams into staying regardless of how good/bad/marginal the deal is. Although the info from Wazzu about numbers presented today would counter that.
I think that's entirely plausible.

IMO, there's three factions in play:
  • The PAC conference as an entity separate from it's members, OSU, WSU, probably Cal and Stanford
  • WA, OR, maybe Stanford, and Utah (but only in their delusions, could be fanbase only)
  • CO, AZ, ASU, and Utah (in reality)
The first group is facing an existential threat. The PAC Conference (as an entity) probably won't be considered a power conference if it loses any more schools. They're going to lose more schools either now or after the next deal. The PAC sticking together is OSU and WSU's only chance to stay in a power conference. Cal probably fits this as well, as it seems the B10's "good schools in a big metro area with lots of cable subscribers" model of growth is over. I could see Stanford getting an invite along with ND, but that seems pretty unlikely on their own or for 2024. This group doesn't really care when or how a new deal gets inked, they just want a new deal.

The second group is still hoping for that B10 invite. When (if) they sign the GOR as part of a new deal, that hope goes away for however long the deal runs. They'd all probably wait as long as possible to sign a new PAC deal just to keep hope alive.

The third group would all probably prefer to stay in the PAC, all things being equal, even knowing WA and OR might bail after the next deal. They'd all probably take less money to stay in the PAC, but the question is how much less? $5M? $10M? At the same time, they have options (B12), but they can't wait forever. There's a date when it's too late to make a move for 2024, and they know that. I think it's June 30th or thereabouts. If the PAC doesn't have a deal, do they walk away without knowing? I think they'd have a very solid understanding of exactly what the B12 is offering.
 

RonBurgundy

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They may be second fiddle in their broader market (Portland and Seattle), but so are we. So is KSU. So is OSU. I'm sensing a theme here. My point being that even if a school is "second fiddle" in a media market, that doesn't mean having a conference member there doesn't still bring in that media market, at least to a degree. How many KSU grads are there in the KC metro? As many as Oregon St grads in the Portland metro?

Yes, now you get it. ISU and KSU would not be the choice of the B1G. That is why Oregon State will never be the choice of the Big 12. You answered your own question.
 
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FriendlySpartan

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They may be second fiddle in their broader market (Portland and Seattle), but so are we. So is KSU. So is OSU. I'm sensing a theme here. My point being that even if a school is "second fiddle" in a media market, that doesn't mean having a conference member there doesn't still bring in that media market, at least to a degree. How many KSU grads are there in the KC metro? As many as Oregon St grads in the Portland metro?
The point isn’t to grab teams that are also, to use your term “second fiddle” the point is to grab the best possible teams to lock up the Big12 as the third best conference money wise. Why grab a second fiddle team if you can grab Colorado or Arizona/ASU? Or even better if you can grab a Washington/Oregon. Teams you add have to bring in money, OSU and WSU will cost money to bring in unless they agree to an insane discount but at some point when they get a full share that is going to be a problem.
 

HFCS

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Utah is the only surprise on there for me. GT has a huge incremental TV market which still matters to the BTN. Cal is geographic partner for the other west coast adds, great academics, big TV market, and would help salve the UCLA wound. I suppose Utah would be same-ish as Cal -- a smaller TV market but its incremental if you get Stanford first.

But you vet 10 to choose 4, 6, or MAYBE 8 at the most.

The list shows why ASU fans are smoking crack whether it’s real or not. They might be in mix if big ten adds a full ten teams…maybe.

I think AZ and CU are just more realistic about things.
 

RustShack

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They may be second fiddle in their broader market (Portland and Seattle), but so are we. So is KSU. So is OSU. I'm sensing a theme here. My point being that even if a school is "second fiddle" in a media market, that doesn't mean having a conference member there doesn't still bring in that media market, at least to a degree. How many KSU grads are there in the KC metro? As many as Oregon St grads in the Portland metro?
Isu, KSU, and OSU aren’t being added to the Big12, they’ve been in it.
 

HFCS

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I think that's entirely plausible.

IMO, there's three factions in play:
  • The PAC conference as an entity separate from it's members, OSU, WSU, probably Cal and Stanford
  • WA, OR, maybe Stanford, and Utah (but only in their delusions, could be fanbase only)
  • CO, AZ, ASU, and Utah (in reality)
The first group is facing an existential threat. The PAC Conference (as an entity) probably won't be considered a power conference if it loses any more schools. They're going to lose more schools either now or after the next deal. The PAC sticking together is OSU and WSU's only chance to stay in a power conference. Cal probably fits this as well, as it seems the B10's "good schools in a big metro area with lots of cable subscribers" model of growth is over. I could see Stanford getting an invite along with ND, but that seems pretty unlikely on their own or for 2024. This group doesn't really care when or how a new deal gets inked, they just want a new deal.

The second group is still hoping for that B10 invite. When (if) they sign the GOR as part of a new deal, that hope goes away for however long the deal runs. They'd all probably wait as long as possible to sign a new PAC deal just to keep hope alive.

The third group would all probably prefer to stay in the PAC, all things being equal, even knowing WA and OR might bail after the next deal. They'd all probably take less money to stay in the PAC, but the question is how much less? $5M? $10M? At the same time, they have options (B12), but they can't wait forever. There's a date when it's too late to make a move for 2024, and they know that. I think it's June 30th or thereabouts. If the PAC doesn't have a deal, do they walk away without knowing? I think they'd have a very solid understanding of exactly what the B12 is offering.

Agree except I think AZ and CU actively want to leave for B12 already. I know guy who is somewhat of AZ insider and he’s been hearing pro big 12 since last fall.
 
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snowcraig2.0

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The point isn’t to grab teams that are also, to use your term “second fiddle” the point is to grab the best possible teams to lock up the Big12 as the third best conference money wise. Why grab a second fiddle team if you can grab Colorado or Arizona/ASU? Or even better if you can grab a Washington/Oregon. Teams you add have to bring in money, OSU and WSU will cost money to bring in unless they agree to an insane discount but at some point when they get a full share that is going to be a problem.
The real question is would you rather have WSU and OSU, or UH and UCF.
 

2speedy1

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Utah, LOL.

Utah is the only surprise on there for me. GT has a huge incremental TV market which still matters to the BTN. Cal is geographic partner for the other west coast adds, great academics, big TV market, and would help salve the UCLA wound. I suppose Utah would be same-ish as Cal -- a smaller TV market but its incremental if you get Stanford first.

But you vet 10 to choose 4, 6, or MAYBE 8 at the most.

Yeah, note it said they Vetted them as "possible" additions. Not that any of those actually passed the test.

None really are a surprise to me, as I think we have seen speculations to many of these, and I believe everyone on this list is now AAU, it would not surprise me if there are others that have been "vetted" as well.
 

RonBurgundy

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Yeah, note it said they Vetted them as "possible" additions. Not that any of those actually passed the test.

None really are a surprise to me, as I think we have seen speculations to many of these, and I believe everyone on this list is now AAU, it would not surprise me if there are others that have been "vetted" as well.

I think it is great that Utah is listed among five of the remaining Pac schools. It will further inflate their heads and keep disharmony sown among the remaining Pac schools. Now the majority of schools (UA and CU included) will never agree to a GOR that is more than five years.
 
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RustShack

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The real question is would you rather have WSU and OSU, or UH and UCF.
UH and UCF.

Not that it matters, because it’s just a different situation. The Big12 had to expand. The PAC declined to merge. We were down to 8 members and being linked to the AAC. And in hindsight it’s a good thing we did, because BYU, Houston, and Cincinnati would have been PAC candidates after they found out USC/UCLA were leaving.
 
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