Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

FriendlySpartan

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And you made my point on Michigan and OSU carrying the conference.
Sigh. The big ten championship game was at 8pm same time as the ACC and Pac12 games and still got 3.5 mil more views then the big 12 game that was at noon by itself. The big ten has 4 of the top 8 highest rated teams and 7 of the top 18. OSU and Michigan are the top draws, Michigan especially when they are good but the league has several schools that bring in top level ratings.
 

GTO

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Some actual numbers coming in from a real source finally. ESPN offer is $24.5 million per school, which is terrible. It's considerable lower than any current B12 estimate and those don't even include T3 like everyone else's do.


Woof! Shut it down. Could someone please remind Cal, WSU, and OSU to turn off the lights on their way out?
 

aeroclone

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Right - and what Apple did pick up (MLS soccer) is something already is too niche to make it onto the major outlets. Amazon did pay up to buy NFL Thursday night games, but that's the NFL - it's the most watched sport in America so that makes sense.

On the other hand it is true that the business model is different. Their revenue is based on driving new subscribers rather than selling ads, though I'm sure they would run ads if they picked up live sports. Still seems hard to believe with all that that they could compete with the traditional broadcasters for primetime games.

The streamers are a T2/T3 option but no one would take them over the T1 primetime, imo. Even the proponents of going to streaming seem to feel that way now too.
Yep. And I would say that Thursday night NFL game that Amazon got in on is the lowest value NFL game out there. So far they have dipped a toe in the water, but none of them have really taken a big plunge into live sports.

Also have to consider that if these games are so valuable for streaming services, CBS has Paramount Plus, NBC has Peacock, and ABC/ESPN have ESPN+. In my mind at this point it seems more natural for the legacy players to buy Tier 1 for their flagship networks then Tier 2 and 3 for the streamer. Then cross promote to drive subscriptions. Amazon or Apple outbidding the others for Tier 1 Big 12 games exclusively on streaming seems like a big leap on their part. And potentially less desirable for the schools as well. The exposure of TV has value. Is a few million more from Apple enough to offset half the audience no longer seeing you on TV?
 

12191987

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Cool. I can do that too.

Average attendance at Autzen in 2021: 49,468 @ 91.6% stadium capacity. Overall records 10-4
Average attendance at Jack Trice in 2021: 60,704 @ 98.7%. Overall record. 7-6

You’re really missing the mark. The talking point to which I’m responding is that Pac-12 football has no viewership based on very poor attendance:

“So millions of fans are going to watch those games on a Saturday night because they care so much but they don’t even halfway fill their own stadiums…. Bold take.”

Note, the Oregon numbers you cite include opening games against Fresno State and Stonybrook that occurred weeks before students were on campus. They were both ~12K below capacity. Take those out and they averaged >52K, or 96.37%. Granted, that is propped up slightly by the Oregon State game being at 104.45% capacity. Regardless calling 91.6% half empty is a stretch.

Take yet another Pac-12 team, Utah. They averaged 51,817 at home last season. Their stadium holds 51,444. That is 100.07%. Every single game was above capacity. That’s pretty good attendance, if you value percentage of capacity more than absolute numbers.

Back to UW/WSU. It is pretty hard for me to scoff at that in-state rivalry game between 4-7 and 6-5 teams having a *paltry* 68,077 in attendance compared to the 61,500 on hand for an historic matchup of Top Ten Cyclone/Hawkeye teams. There is just something off about claiming a crowd that is 10.69% bigger as an indicator of lack of interest.

Are Oregon, Washington, and Utah currently the most healthy programs in that league? Probably. The point, however, is that any weird idea that they’ve got no fanbases behind them is absurd. Are they enough to prop up an entire league? I don’t know. I’d be comfortable saying Oregon and Washington would be the clear big dogs if plopped into the Big 12 as things stand.

Again, I have no idea how all of this shakes out. I have a very clear idea of how I want it to shake out though:

If the Cyclones can get themselves into position of having the kind of relevance and success the likes of Oregon and Washington have enjoyed recently sign me the **** up for it.

If that means the Pac-12 is burned to the ground, so be it. Same goes for the Big 12.
 
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2speedy1

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Sigh. The big ten championship game was at 8pm same time as the ACC and Pac12 games and still got 3.5 mil more views then the big 12 game that was at noon by itself. The big ten has 4 of the top 8 highest rated teams and 7 of the top 18. OSU and Michigan are the top draws, Michigan especially when they are good but the league has several schools that bring in top level ratings.
Pac was on a different day.
Prime time > 11am.
I'm not trying to argue here but at least get your facts straight. Big 10 = 14 schools Big 12 = 10,
Records in bowls Big 12 > Big 10 last few years
Number of teams in playoff Big 12 = Big 10
top to bottom % of good vs bad in each conference 14 teams vs 10 one could argue a long time which is better.

Moving forward that could change. But then again I dont think any of us really know the future. I mean Texas, USC, UCLA all have not been major powers in CFB for a while, how do we know thats going to change in a new conference.

In recent years Cinci, BYU, Houston, and even UCF have been pretty damn good, how do we know whether or not that continues, and elevates the Big 12, as much as it elevates them for being in the Big 12.
 

2speedy1

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You’re really missing the mark. The talking point to which I’m responding is that Pac-12 football has no viewership based on very poor attendance.

Note, the Oregon numbers you cite include opening games against Fresno State and Stonybrook that occurred weeks before students were on campus. They were both ~12K below capacity. Take those out and they averaged >52K, or 96.37%. Granted, that is propped up slightly by the Oregon State game being at 104.45% capacity. Regardless calling 91.6% half empty is a stretch.

Take yet another Pac-12 team, Utah. They averaged 51,817 at home last season. Their stadium holds 51,444. That is 100.07%. Every single game was above capacity. That’s pretty good attendance, if you value percentage of capacity more than absolute numbers.

Back to UW/WSU. It is pretty hard for me to scoff at that in-state rivalry game between 4-7 and 6-5 teams having a *paltry* 68,077 in attendance compared to the 61,500 on hand for an historic matchup of Top Ten Cyclone/Hawkeye teams. There is just something off about claiming a crowd that is 10.69% bigger as an indicator of lack of interest.

Are Oregon, Washington, and Utah currently the most healthy programs in that league? Probably. The point, however, is that any weird idea that they’ve got no fanbases behind them is absurd. Are they enough to prop up an entire league? I don’t know. I’d be comfortable saying Oregon and Washington would be the clear big dogs if plopped into the Big 12 as things stand.

Again, I have no idea how all of this shakes out. I have a very clear idea of how I want it to shake out though:

If the Cyclones can get themselves into position of having the kind of relevance and success the likes of Oregon and Washington have enjoyed recently sign me the **** up for it.

If that means the Pac-12 is burned to the ground, so be it. Same goes for the Big 12.
I dont know what you are trying to prove here, other than a few of the Pac 12 teams have value vs others that dont. A few have viewers and attendance while others dont. I think what most say is compare attendance and viewership top to bottom last year, and you will see the Big 12 has more.

Do some of our stadiums need to get bigger sure. But we are filling ours, they are not.

And like you pointed out, teams like Oregon report numbers above capacity that boost their numbers. Where Iowa State no longer report any numbers over capacity. If we did some of those sell outs would boost our attendance too. Last year we would have been over capacity by reporting the over capacity games, but we dont do that. If we did we would have been amongst those that were at 100%+ capacity last year, instead we were right behind them.

Im starting to wonder what your arguing here, seems you think we all should be joining the Pac I guess.
 

BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
Pac was on a different day.
Prime time > 11am.
I'm not trying to argue here but at least get your facts straight. Big 10 = 14 schools Big 12 = 10,
Records in bowls Big 12 > Big 10 last few years
Number of teams in playoff Big 12 = Big 10
top to bottom % of good vs bad in each conference 14 teams vs 10 one could argue a long time which is better.

Moving forward that could change. But then again I dont think any of us really know the future. I mean Texas, USC, UCLA all have not been major powers in CFB for a while, how do we know thats going to change in a new conference.

In recent years Cinci, BYU, Houston, and even UCF have been pretty damn good, how do we know whether or not that continues, and elevates the Big 12, as much as it elevates them for being in the Big 12.
Don’t we get to count cincy in the playoffs this year like the big ten counts husker championships?
 

FriendlySpartan

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Pac was on a different day.
Prime time > 11am.
I'm not trying to argue here but at least get your facts straight. Big 10 = 14 schools Big 12 = 10,
Records in bowls Big 12 > Big 10 last few years
Number of teams in playoff Big 12 = Big 10
top to bottom % of good vs bad in each conference 14 teams vs 10 one could argue a long time which is better.

Moving forward that could change. But then again I dont think any of us really know the future. I mean Texas, USC, UCLA all have not been major powers in CFB for a while, how do we know thats going to change in a new conference.

In recent years Cinci, BYU, Houston, and even UCF have been pretty damn good, how do we know whether or not that continues, and elevates the Big 12, as much as it elevates them for being in the Big 12.
Good call on the pac being on a different day. Not sure what any of the other stats had to do with my comment but I don’t disagree with anything you stated. Personally I think the 4 schools you addded will never have records as good as they did before the big 12 as it’s a dramatic step up in competition.
 

Scruff

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Only just remembered today that I signed up for The Athletic last spring when I caught a deal for $1/mo. lol Tells you how valuable it's been to me. I went ahead and canceled. Gave Stewie's name as my reason. I doubt $12 a year hurts them, but I see no reason to give them anything.
 
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Kinch

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Sigh. The big ten championship game was at 8pm same time as the ACC and Pac12 games and still got 3.5 mil more views then the big 12 game that was at noon by itself. The big ten has 4 of the top 8 highest rated teams and 7 of the top 18. OSU and Michigan are the top draws, Michigan especially when they are good but the league has several schools that bring in top level ratings.
And Ohio State considered going independent even with those "top level ratings." Just admit that Ohio State and Michigan carry the water in the conference.
 
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12191987

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Im starting to wonder what your arguing here, seems you think we all should be joining the Pac I guess.
Fair.

Truth be told it is less argument than expression of anxiety.

Cyclone athletics are unbelievably important to me.

If I’m being really honest, any realignment talk poses a major threat.

While there is a reasonable chance that Iowa State will be protected by current circumstances, I also know the stark reality is likely not what I wish it to be.

I’m not unaware of the national perception. I’m not unaware of the demographics and market size. I’m not unaware of the on-field results.

I know the reason I jump at shadows and see likes of Mandel and Wilner as smug, delusional elites condescending us benighted rubes is because I need to discount what they’re saying, even if it is probably not completely off the mark.

If know that if some shadowy media force decides the Pac-12, ACC, and Big 12 would be more valuable reconstituted as a single league it’ll probably happen. I know if that were to come to pass I wouldn’t sleep until it was over, and if the league had fewer than 20 teams I’d almost certainly be heartbroken by the results.

I’m not unaware of the doubt that undergirds the posturing. I’m not unaware of the desperation in the cherry-picking and over-fitted models. Really, I’m not. I’m in the exact same place.

It isn’t a point I’m making, it is just a different aesthetic: I want a sheen of objectivity and rationality coating my hopes and worries.
 
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jdoggivjc

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Where do you get that stat from? BYU was in the 40’s for most watched team and didn’t even average over a million viewers per game. Compared to other big 12 teams they are solidly in the middle for ratings draw. Not saying that the big 12 isn’t going to crush the pac in ratings just kinda wondered where the BYU point came from.

Some people are convinced that every Mormon in America is a BYU fan, just like every Catholic in America is a ND fan, and thus BYU = ND in terms of impact. Let's just assume for a second this ridiculous assumption actually is true (it isn't - I've known a number of Mormons in my life and all of them couldn't give two ***** about BYU, and while the same doesn't quite hold true for Catholics and ND, a good number of them didn't), Catholics so far outnumber Mormons it's not even worth wasting time looking for numbers.

I'm not saying BYU was a bad add for the Big 12, because it was. I just think there are some people that have extremely skewed perceptions as to what BYU is actually going to add to the conference, and it's not going to be anywhere near what they think it is. In fact, in terms of sheer numbers, ISU might be more valuable to the Big 12 than BYU.
 

BuschLight

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Only just remembered today that I signed up for The Athletic last spring when I caught a deal for $1/mo. lol Tells you how valuable it's been to me. I went ahead and canceled. Gave Stewie's name as my reason. I doubt $12 a year hurts them, but I see no reason to give them anything.
Paywall sports articles are dumb. You can get a lot of the info from free sources anyways
 

FriendlySpartan

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And Ohio State considered going independent even with those "top level ratings." Just admit that Ohio State and Michigan carry the water in the conference.
As their AD and even said it was essentially a joke and non starter.

OSU and Michigan are easily the two best teams in the big ten in terms of ratings however there are 6 other teams that also draw extremely well. As far as on field competition it’s only OSU that is a true powerhouse. In fact considering how mediocre Michigan has been for the last 15 years it is a testament to their power as a brand and football school. Will be interesting to see how NIL shakes up the juggernauts like Bama and OSU.
 

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