Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[PickSix]

Big 10 has massive enrollment and fan bases. Every school is over 40k enrollment except 3, Iowa, NW, Nebby.

Maybe I’m not old enough, or educated enough, but I really don’t understand the Big 10 adding Nebby. For a conference that prides itself in academics, Nebby is at/near the bottom of that conference in most metrics. They were hanging onto AAU status by a thread (and would lose it soon after joining), they don’t have a massive enrollment (by B1G standards), and they don’t deliver a large tv market. Hell, I can justify Rutgers and Maryland a lot quicker by those metrics than I can Nebraska.

I just can’t help but wonder if the conference regrets that addition.

 

[2speedy1]

The other thing they love to tout, is the amount of Big 10 teams that play in New Year bowls. Like that still means what it did 30 years ago.

Yes the amount of Big 10/Iowa people that constantly brag about NY Day bowls is insane. I try to remind them that NY Day bowls are not the same as NY6 Bowls and even those major NY6 bowls have nothing to do with NY Day anymore.

Part of the problem is their best bowl has always been the Rose which has had the whole NY day exemption thing until now. So they all think that the Outback bowl being on NY Day means it is the same level as the Rose or Sugar bowl, or even the Alamo.

Same with the Alamo bowl. Iowa went when it was a low level bowl and way down in the pecking order for bowls and since it has been a Big 12 bowl they have increased their pay and position to not only be the best non-NY6 bowl, but also the highest paying. Yet Iowa fans still see it as the lowly bowl that it was when they went.

It is a weird problem with B1G fans, with a warped view on things.

 

[2speedy1]

Agree, FSU will bolt for the SEC the first chance it gets. Makes no sense to bend to their "demands" knowing that they're leaving whether you do or you don't.

This is the same situation as what the Pac10 has with Oregon and Washington. Why would they bend to their demands, they will leave first chance they have.

So if they did do unequal revenue for say 5 years, it only appeases them for that time and takes money out of the rests pockets, and does nothing to actually keep Wash and Ore in the Pac, when an offer comes.

 

[Gonzo]

Maybe I’m not old enough, or educated enough, but I really don’t understand the Big 10 adding Nebby. For a conference that prides itself in academics, Nebby is at/near the bottom of that conference in most metrics. They were hanging onto AAU status by a thread (and would lose it soon after joining), they don’t have a massive enrollment (by B1G standards), and they don’t deliver a large tv market. Hell, I can justify Rutgers and Maryland a lot quicker by those metrics than I can Nebraska.

I just can’t help but wonder if the conference regrets that addition.

Historical blueblood, national football brand. Not all that different in that respect from adding Penn St. I'm sure the conference knew Nebby was on the brink of the AAU boot, but as long as they were in at the time of joining the conference, it was good enough. Nebby was coming off of 3 straight Big 12 North championships, 4 division titles in 5 years, and 2 straight 10-win seasons before joining the B1G. I don't think anyone could've seen them falling off the cliff the way they did.

 

[isucy86]

And the ACC's response...

View attachment 113019

FSU can complain all it wants, they're locked in. ACC doesn't have to do squat to appease them.

Not just FSU. Clemson's AD mentioned that revenue sharing was most important topic on agenda for this week's ACC Meetings.

The ACC doesn't have to do anything, but inaction guarantees the ACC won't exist after 2036. Which is probably going to happen regardless.

But I feel schools like Clemson, Florida State, Miami have to ask- Sales 101. They might be able to get a bigger share of revenue if it is merit based. Starting in 2026, the new 12 team playoff will create around $250M of incremental revenue for each P5 conference and its schools. Would schools agree to setting aside $50M of that new money and dividing it up among schools which make the 12 team playoff? Or create a distribution pool based on playoff berth, TV ratings, etc.

If Clemson, FSU, etc. ask and the answer is no from other ACC members, then FSU and Clemson will feel better if they choose a nuclear approach.

 

[WhoISthis]

Not just FSU. Clemson's AD mentioned that revenue sharing was most important topic on agenda for this week's ACC Meetings.

The ACC doesn't have to do anything, but inaction guarantees the ACC won't exist after 2036. Which is probably going to happen regardless.

But I feel schools like Clemson, Florida State, Miami have to ask- Sales 101. They might be able to get a bigger share of revenue if it is merit based. Starting in 2026, the new 12 team playoff will create around $250M of incremental revenue for each P5 conference and its schools. Would schools agree to setting aside $50M of that new money and dividing it up among schools which make the 12 team playoff? Or create a distribution pool based on playoff berth, TV ratings, etc.

If Clemson, FSU, etc. ask and the answer is no from other ACC members, then FSU and Clemson will feel better if they choose a nuclear approach.

Exactly, this is something you ask for to see if you can get what you want the easy way.

If they can get $60 million/year from ACC, they may wait until 2036.

The ACC leftovers are in a tough spot, able to potentially win a battle but no chance at winning the war. They need to figure out how to use the GOR to get paid to go away, ideally while getting some type of conference security (anything but becoming new American Conference)

Tangentially I’d be surprised if CFP base pay is split equitably between the P4 conferences.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Historical blueblood, national football brand. Not all that different in that respect from adding Penn St. I'm sure the conference knew Nebby was on the brink of the AAU boot, but as long as they were in at the time of joining the conference, it was good enough. Nebby was coming off of 3 straight Big 12 North championships, 4 division titles in 5 years, and 2 straight 10-win seasons before joining the B1G. I don't think anyone could've seen them falling off the cliff the way they did.

I don’t think anyone outside of Husker Nation cares about that. The cult is strong enough that it doesn’t really affect anything money wise. The Nebby fan is completely integrated in to the Bog 10 ecosystem at this point. tOSU and Michigan are at a level that you’re guaranteed 2 playoff teams (when the format changes) with a solid shot of a third when PSU, MSU, or Iowa has a hot year.

 

[Gonzo]

Exactly, this is something you ask for to see if you can get what you want the easy way.

If they can get $60 million/year from ACC, they may wait until 2036.

The ACC leftovers are in a tough spot, able to potentially win a battle but no chance at winning the war. They need to figure out how to use the GOR to get paid to go away, ideally while getting some type of conference security (anything but becoming new American Conference)

Tangentially I’d be surprised if CFP base pay is split equitably between the P4 conferences.

FSU ain't getting $60 mill/year. And even if they don't wait until 2036, they're locked in for at least another 10 years and have no leverage to do anything about it.

 

[HFCS]

I don’t think anyone outside of Husker Nation cares about that. The cult is strong enough that it doesn’t really affect anything money wise. The Nebby fan is completely integrated in to the Bog 10 ecosystem at this point. tOSU and Michigan are at a level that you’re guaranteed 2 playoff teams (when the format changes) with a solid shot of a third when PSU, MSU, or Iowa has a hot year.

I'm sure someone could call BS but I totally saw Nebraska falling off a cliff from where they were. I'd have guessed average was way more likely for them than good.

They were already trending down from their totally dominant 90s.

They were joining a conference away from their traditional recruiting footprint where they would be the most geographically remote outpost. Their state has half the population of Iowa or Kansas with no large media markets. They don't produce enough home grown talent to compete in either major sport...possibly why they are literally the worst basketball program in history.

Pretty much right away I thought their new ceiling was the same as Iowa's. Minn and Wisc have a significantly higher natural ceiling than Nebraska.

 

[JP4CY]

I'm sure someone could call BS but I totally saw Nebraska falling off a cliff from where they were. I'd have guessed average was way more likely for them than good.

They were already trending down from their totally dominant 90s.

They were joining a conference away from their traditional recruiting footprint where they would be the most geographically remote outpost. Their state has half the population of Iowa or Kansas with no large media markets. They don't produce enough home grown talent to compete in either major sport...possibly why they are literally the worst basketball program in history.

Pretty much right away I thought their new ceiling was the same as Iowa's. Minn and Wisc have a significantly higher natural ceiling than Nebraska.

Partial qualifiers, no scholly rules, PEDs, all helped Nebby. Once those were toast that program became mediocre.

 

[HFCS]

Partial qualifiers, no scholly rules, PEDs, all helped Nebby. Once those were toast that program became mediocre.

What is their natural advantage? I can never come up with one other than they were good 6 years before any player was born.

 

[isucy86]

Exactly, this is something you ask for to see if you can get what you want the easy way.

If they can get $60 million/year from ACC, they may wait until 2036.

The ACC leftovers are in a tough spot, able to potentially win a battle but no chance at winning the war. They need to figure out how to use the GOR to get paid to go away, ideally while getting some type of conference security (anything but becoming new American Conference)

Tangentially I’d be surprised if CFP base pay is split equitably between the P4 conferences.

I agree that CFP payouts won't be so equitable once it goes out to open market in 2026.

First, would be surprised in the G5 schools continue to get around 20% of the money like they do today with a 4 team playoff. There's a big difference betwee G5 schools getting $100M annually with a 4 team playoff vs. $400M with a 12 team playoff.

Second, I expect the 6 auto bids to conference champions is changed to fewer auto qualifiers or a requirement that auto qualifiers be ranked in top 12 or 15.

Lastly, I believe a sizeable portion (10%) of the CFP money will be set aside for the 12 teams that make the playoff.

 

[WhoISthis]

FSU ain't getting $60 mill/year. And even if they don't wait until 2036, they're locked in for at least another 10 years and have no leverage to do anything about it.

Only because they will still leave as soon as they can.

FSU has leverage.

Look at this from the leftovers point of view. Time is not on their side. They have 13 years to get something out of GOR. 13 years to prevent being Oregon St’s, who would gladly go back and get paid $100 million to go to new Big 12 if USC and others were allowed to go to P2. They can’t get a P2 invite, but they can get paid to go away, maybe help on avoiding an American level conference

A reminder of how shallow the ACC is after ND, FSU, and Clemson leave, whenever that may be. The last two conference title games had horrible viewership. Leftovers CANNOT allow this to get to 2036. They can’t even risk 2030 and there no longer being a market that justifies settlement. They will be begging to trade schools to P2 in exchange for exit fees, a Big 12 invite, and maybe some GOR payments

2022 avg viewership:

Notre Dame — 3.30M (2.5 games/year on ACC contract)
Clemson — 2.59M
TCU — 2.20M
Florida State — 2.03M
Oklahoma State — 1.68M
Baylor — 1.32M
Kansas State — 1.23M
BYU — 997K
Iowa State — 882K
NC State — 881K
North Carolina — 849K
Syracuse — 841K
Georgia Tech — 837K
West Virginia — 774K
Kansas — 732K
Texas Tech — 680K
Cincinnati — 653K
Pittsburgh — 650K
Miami FL— 608K
Wake Forest — 523K
UCF — 510K
Louisville — 496K
Boston College — 322K
Virginia Tech — 264K
Houston — 242K
Virginia — 237K
Duke — 115.7K

 

[isucy86]

FSU ain't getting $60 mill/year. And even if they don't wait until 2036, they're locked in for at least another 10 years and have no leverage to do anything about it.

They might not have leverage. But they have hundreds of millions of reasons to find a way out. With the current atmosphere in state politics and our legal system, anything is possible.

 

[AuH2O]

I'm sure someone could call BS but I totally saw Nebraska falling off a cliff from where they were. I'd have guessed average was way more likely for them than good.

They were already trending down from their totally dominant 90s.

They were joining a conference away from their traditional recruiting footprint where they would be the most geographically remote outpost. Their state has half the population of Iowa or Kansas with no large media markets. They don't produce enough home grown talent to compete in either major sport...possibly why they are literally the worst basketball program in history.

Pretty much right away I thought their new ceiling was the same as Iowa's. Minn and Wisc have a significantly higher natural ceiling than Nebraska.

Big 10 had no negative impact on their recruiting. It took years of Frost’s terrible coaching before their recruiting finally started dropping off.

They took a step back after Osborne for a lot of reasons - no more partial qualifiers, scholarship reductions and everybody else getting on TV. But that dip happened a decade before they left.

The “how did the big 10 work out for Nebraska” comment as if it has been a bad thing is 100% wrong. Schedule got easier, recruiting maintained at levels they were in the Big 12, and were often even better despite years of mediocrity under Riley and dumpster fire under Frost.

Moving to the Big 10 was great for Nebraska in every single way. All the positives simply weren’t able to overcome years of mediocre, then completely incompetent coaching.

 

[FerShizzle]

Big 10 had no negative impact on their recruiting. It took years of Frost’s terrible coaching before their recruiting finally started dropping off.

They took a step back after Osborne for a lot of reasons - no more partial qualifiers, scholarship reductions and everybody else getting on TV. But that dip happened a decade before they left.

The “how did the big 10 work out for Nebraska” comment as if it has been a bad thing is 100% wrong. Schedule got easier, recruiting maintained at levels they were in the Big 12, and were often even better despite years of mediocrity under Riley and dumpster fire under Frost.

Moving to the Big 10 was great for Nebraska in every single way. All the positives simply weren’t able to overcome years of mediocre, then completely incompetent coaching.

Running off the few good coaches they had because 10 and 11 wins weren’t enough is a big part of their coaching problem.

That and paying 2 or 3 head coaches at a time for parts of the last 2 decades because of buyouts.

 

[Clonefan94]

They might not have leverage. But they have hundreds of millions of reasons to find a way out. With the current atmosphere in state politics and our legal system, anything is possible.

Not this **** again. FSU, Clemson and Miami can’t find a way out and their lawyers are telling them there is no way out. That’s why they are grasping at straws. If there was a light at the end of the tunnel, they’d keep their mouths shut and leave.

Remind me never to do business with anyone on CF, seems a lot of people here think contracts are only signed to be broken for no reason other than one side doesn’t like the deal they signed on.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I don’t think anyone outside of Husker Nation cares about that. The cult is strong enough that it doesn’t really affect anything money wise. The Nebby fan is completely integrated in to the Bog 10 ecosystem at this point. tOSU and Michigan are at a level that you’re guaranteed 2 playoff teams (when the format changes) with a solid shot of a third when PSU, MSU, or Iowa has a hot year.

Michigan is most likely going to take the 1A spot over from OSU this year so agree that two seem likely with Penn state having the third most years. Iowa once the west division goes away is totally screwed and sparty is a year or two away from being a dumpster fire.

 

[LarryISU]

I'm sure someone could call BS but I totally saw Nebraska falling off a cliff from where they were. I'd have guessed average was way more likely for them than good.

NU fans considered the Big 12 a stronger conference than the B1G. Texas, A&M, Oklahoma, Okie State, Mizzou, Nebraska, Kansas State at times, TTU at times. Going to the B1G they were sure they would be right there with tOSU and Michigan.

Only took 3 or 4 years and they changed their tune, yeah boy, Big 12 was never this difficult. And down and down they went.

You have to think if they could, the B1G would say so long to Nebby, Maryland, Rutgers and Northwestern.

 

[twojman]

NU fans considered the Big 12 a stronger conference than the B1G. Texas, A&M, Oklahoma, Okie State, Mizzou, Nebraska, Kansas State at times, TTU at times. Going to the B1G they were sure they would be right there with tOSU and Michigan.

Only took 3 or 4 years and they changed their tune, yeah boy, Big 12 was never this difficult. And down and down they went.

You have to think if they could, the B1G would say so long to Nebby, Maryland, Rutgers and Northwestern.

Once Nebraska lost their Big 12 players they went to the crapper against the B1G. They went to the B1G title game in their second season right? Same thing happened with Mizzou.