I like Dekkers on designed QB sweep sort of deal if the run game has been leaning heavily one way to set it up.
He's got the speed to get to the corner...just need to avoid the Lan-Ram approach, haha.
Three turnovers and two blocked punts...
- Thread starter Cyclone06
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I like Dekkers on designed QB sweep sort of deal if the run game has been leaning heavily one way to set it up.
He's got the speed to get to the corner...just need to avoid the Lan-Ram approach, haha.
Good news, our punt returns and kickoff coverage was decent. Clean up the punting area and we are fine. That last punt, it went 38 yards with like 0 return, that works for me. Get that every time and I won't complain at this point. While it is not a record breaker, I will take 35+ with no returns at this point.
Iowa's punter didn't do the damage that he had done last year against us. He was drilling them but not getting them to stick, I wonder if natural surface that works better with than field turf.
I'm thinking 7 right now. I don't think the Big 12 is a murderer's row by any stretch but it might just be the toughest across the conference it's been in quite a while.
If we can get to 3-0 non conf. An average Matt Campbell Big 12 record lands us at 8-4.
That's average INCLUDING the first year he was only 2-7 in conference.
If you throw out that first season, a 3-0 non conf plus typical Big 12 result last five years would be 9-3.
Getting this Ohio win and starting out 3-0 is absolutely massive for our final record. We've been in the 7-11 win range with non-conf blunder losses. (in a normal schedule 2020 is a 10 or 11 win season even blowing that Louisiana game, bad as our non conf has been, ISU wouldn't have gone 0-3 non conf)
CycloneErik
Well-Known Member
I'll just grumble something about being a real fan, even though this week is the first time I figured 8 was likely.
I told everyone last week to take the ISU ML. ISU played one of their worst possible games and still won. Vegas was greatly underestimating how bad Iowa's offense truly is. We play this game 10 times, we would win by more than 3 every other time. So many things would have had to go wrong for us to lose this one.
Last 20 years, opponent @ Kinnick winning with 3 plus turnovers (blocked punts is not an available option for this):
2012 Iowa State 9 - Iowa 6
2012 Purdue 27 - Iowa 24
2020 Northwestern 21 - Iowa 20
2022 Iowa State 10 - Iowa 7
out of probably 140 games or so, 1 in 35 chance.
Crazy. Too bad they don't include blocked punts, cuz that is essentially five turnovers we had.
But a blocked punt is hard to classify. All punts really are turnovers - the punting team is just electing to get a bunch of yards off the turnover. So do you include all punts, do you include any that are touched by a rusher - including the ones that still go 40+ yards. Do you only include ones that go less than 40? Less than 30? Less than 20? Only negative yardage punts?
Right. A turnover is a loss of possession plus a loss of field position. A blocked punt is only a loss of field position, since you were losing possession regardless.
But a turnover can be just a loss of possession like when you go deep and the ball is intercepted without a return. It can look a lot like a punt in a drive chart.
I just think the context matters. Against an offense like Iowa, a blocked punt feels more like a turnover. Could they have driven the field against us if we punt well? Plus the momentum swing of a big play, plus the lack of execution on our end makes it feel like a turnover and much worse than just a poor punt.
"Context matters." That was my point exactly. You said too bad they don't include blocked punts in the turnover numbers. Which ones are enough like a conventional turnover and which are like a standard punt. Context matters. There are a lot of punts that a defender gets a finger or two on. Some go 25 yards, some go 45 yards. Either you have to include all of them or none of them or put some threshold on what is included and what isn't. Then some will argue why you are including a 30 yard blocked punt but not including a 15 yard shanked punt.
I agree that they can feel like a turnover. I just don't think they can include them in the turnover stats.
Didn't Campbell bring in a ST coordinator over the offseason? So he is doing something to address it. Maybe it takes longer than we'd like, but it's not fair to lump Campbell in as someone who is not trying to adapt given how his teams perform.
Edit: He is a special team's analyst, not coordinator at ISU: https://cyclones.com/sports/football/roster/coaches/john-bonamego/1901
Might be his worst team since year 1. You can be a way below average power 5 team and be 3-0 against Ohio, SEMO, and this Iowa team. West Virginia and Kansas looked Saturday like they would have beat Iowa/ISU last Saturday and they probably are the two worst in conference. It is way to soon to tell.
Good point. But changing it up a bit one might ask...
Whats the % of a team going into kinnick- turning it over 3 times with 2 blocked punts, and spencer petras as Iowa's quarterback, and coming out with a win?
The point is, ISU has been an above average to very good team for five straight years yet always started 1-2 or 2-1.
7-5 or 8-4 are just statistically fare more likely than 5-7 or 6-6 if we beat Ohio. That's basically .500 ball in conference with 3-0 tacked on. Ohio is a very big game. New territory to start out a Big 12 year without a preventable blemish.
I agree we won't beat a lot of teams if we hand them 14 points on blocked punts and have 3 additional turnovers. I'm guessing we have one more game with that many wild mistakes all year.
A blocked punt definitely is a turn over. Field position in D1 football is humongous. Offenses take the field and try to string multiple 10 yard series together in attempt to get into a position to score.. Good defenses make the process more difficult.
Take away 30 to 40 yards of field position on a successful punt and it lessens the drive by anywhere from 6 to 12 plays to return the ball to that location - even more offensive plays if you are the worst offense in the country.
That is what makes our 21 play, 99 yard drive with five 3rd down conversions even more impressive.
