***UNI Dual Preview/Predictions/Results***

[Judoka]

The #18 Cyclones travel to Cedar Falls on Saturday to take on the #5 UNI Panthers. UNI is putting together their best season since 1962 and they are going to be tough. I'm not going to do a match by match score prediction for this one because there are so many toss ups and close matches that could go either way. When I go through the matchups I see a worst case scenario of a 10-27 loss, but a more likely scenario of a 16-18 dual loss if we win the tossups but don't get any upsets. We can win this one without any big upsets if we avoid giving up bonus points from 125-141, win the tossups at 149/157, and get techs or pins out of 174 and 197. But not giving up bonus at 133 and 141 is unlikely. So I think we're going to need to get an upset from Hall and/or Smith to have a shot at pulling out a team win. As I posted in the other UNI thread, I think if we wrestled UNI ten times they'd win it six times and we'd win it four.

To follow:
When: Saturday, Feb 8th @ 5PM
Live TV: Cyclone.TV (online only), KCRG 9.2, WOI Channel 5 D-2, KCAU Channel 9 D-2
Live Blog: Here
Twitter: @CycloneWR

Projected Lineups:

Wt.	ISU Wrestler	Record	Ranking	-	UNI Wrestler	Record	Ranking
125	Earl Hall SO	14-9	NR/25/NR/20	vs.	Dylan Peters FR	24-4	6/6/6/6
133	Shayden Terikuna SO	4-6	NR/NR/NR/NR	vs.	Joe Colon SR	23-1	1/1/1/1
141	Gabe Moreno FR	15-13	NR/NR/NR/33	vs.	Joey Lazor SR	12-3	14/13/18/14
149	Luke Goettl JR	12-10	NR/NR/NR/32	vs.	Tyler Patten FR	17-12	NR/NR/NR/NR
-	-	-	-	or	Gunner Wolfensperger FR	7-6	NR/NR/NR/NR
157	John Nicholson SR	10-9	NR/NR/NR/NR	vs.	Jarrett Jensen SO	7-8	NR/NR/NR/NR
or	Logan Molina SO	11-5	NR/NR/NR/NR	or	Zach Witte FR	16-8	NR/NR/NR/NR
165	Mike Moreno JR	20-6	10/15/16/11	vs.	Cooper Moore FR	20-5	11/9/8/10
174	Tanner Weatherman SO	19-10	8/8/15/9	vs.	Cody Caldwell SO	13-8	17/17/19/21
184	Boaz Beard	8-3	NR/NR/NR/32	vs.	Ryan Loder SR	7-0	5/5/6/NR
or	Lelund Weatherspoon FR	21-8	NR/NR/NR/NR
197	Kyven Gadson JR	18-2	2/2/2/2	vs.	Basil Minto JR	15-10	NR/NR/NR/NR
HWT	Quean Smith FR	6-12	NR/NR/NR/NR	vs.	Blaize Cabell SO	16-10	NR/NR/NR/24

Match-by-match thoughts:
125: Hall and Peters met at the Cliff Keen tournament in Vegas. In that match Hall got four takedowns and was up 10-6 when Peters got him with a cow catcher for a late pin. During that week Hall was wrestling like an All-American, losing a tight match to Clark of Iowa, beating the #4 ranked kid from Air Force, and having a solid lead on Peters before he got caught. However, since then Hall has lost his offense and is wrestling at a much lower level, showing up on the fringe of the top 20 rankings some weeks, out of the rankings in others. Peters, on the other hand, has continued to roll through the season knocking off lots of ranked guys. So Peters comes in as the heavy favorite despite the results of their first match. This match is a chance at redemption for Hall. If he can find his offense again and put on another takedown clinic against Peters it could be the start of a strong final month of the season to cement himself an NCAA allocation and push himself back into the rankings for good.
Outcome: Hall hasn't scored a takedown in over a month. Unless he gets his offense going I just hope he stays out of the cow catcher.

133: Colon is the consensus #1 and has the 3rd most tech falls in the country so far this season. Shayden is going to be playing a game of "don't get tilted". Hopefully he's good at that game.
Outcome: If Shayden avoids the tech or pin it's a win for ISU

141: Technically Little Moreno has a win over Lazor this season. It was a medical forfeit at the Southern Scuffle. And given how Moreno has been wrestling lately I think that's about the only way he picks up a win in this one as well. Lazor isn't an elite guy like Peters and Colon, but Gabe is 2-8 in duals this year and most of those losses were to lesser wrestlers than Lazor.
Outcome: Hopefully Gabe doesn't get tilted a bunch and give up a major or tech. His shot at a win is to get his own offense going at score some takedowns.

149: Goettl has never wrestled either of the two guys that UNI has used at this weight. Based on results so far this season, this looks like a true toss up. There are similar results against similar opponents and overall records are also similar. However, Goettl has shown marked improvement lately so I will give him the edge. If we are going to win the meet we have to pick up a win at 149 and I think Goettl is up to the challenge.
Outcome: It's a tossup but I think we get this one

157: This one is similar to the situation at 149. Nicholson has only one common opponent with either of the guys that UNI uses here. Both he and Jensen lost to DeAngelis of Oklahoma. However, Jensen had a big lead on DeAngelis before giving up a lot of points in the third, so I think I have to give him a slight edge. If we are going to win the meet we have to get a win here and I think Nicholson is capable of it. But I'm a lot less confident about a win than I am at 149.
Outcome: Neither guy is a clear favorite. I have a bad feeling about this one, but we need the win here to stay alive in the meet, so hopefully we get it.

165: This is a very big match for Big Moreno. His 10-5 win over Moore in Vegas was his best win of the season so far. And since then he's suffered a few losses that have pushed Moore ahead of him in most of the polls. In fact you could make a strong argument that this is a toss up match. A win here would validate Moreno as an AA level guy and put him on track for a strong finish to the season. I think that Moreno's losses at the Scuffle were an aberration and that he'll pick up a solid win here.
Outcome: Pretty confident that Moreno will pick up his second win over Moore in this one

174: Another matchup between ranked wrestlers. Last season Weatherman people Caldwell 13-3, and Weatherspoon beat Caldwell 4-0 in Vegas. I think Tanner should be able to get his offense going and use takedowns to cruise to a solid win
Outcome: Tanner should have this one, but can he get us bonus points?

184: Beard has never beaten Loder and I don't see that changing on Saturday. If the outcome of the meet is already determined at this point I wouldn't be entirely surprised if we see Lelund here in order to protect Beard's chances at finishing the season with a .700 record.
Outcome: Loder by decision unless Beard pulls off an amazing match

197: Minto has done a good job keeping scores to just a decision against the #3 and #4 ranked guys at this weight. Combine that with Kyven's contentedness to win every match 3-1 in OT and I think this will be a low scoring affair. However, I'm really hoping that Kyven opens up and goes for a major or pin even if the dual outcome is decided.
Outcome: Kyven is the overwhelming favorite, but can he get us bonus points?

HWT: This meet could easily come down to the last match. Smith and Cabell have four common opponents, with Cabell beating three guys who beat Smith, and Smith beating one guy (Larson of Oklahoma) who beat Cabell. Looking at his matches I see lots of low scores, so I expect this one to be another low scoring match, especially if the meet is on the line. Given their records against common opponents Cabell is favored, but not overwhelmingly so. Smith is a lot better than he was earlier in the season when he lost to those common opponents, but he still hasn't shown that he can generate his own takedowns.
Outcome: Smith has a shot, and if we get an upset I think it is most likely to happen at this weight. But I think Cabell wins it with a takedown and ride out.

 

[Judoka]

I also wouldn't be at all surprised if UNI juggled their line-up a bit to give them a better shot at a win at 149. They have an R12 guy from last year sitting on the bench and Lazor beat Goettl last year when they both were at 141. I could easily see them using the following:
133: Levi Wolfensperger
141: Joe Colon
149: Joey Lazor

In the hopes of diminishing our chances of winning the dual. As that would give them a similar chance of a win at 133, make 141 a lock for a win, and give them a better shot at 149.

 

[buf87]

I don't think they move Colon, maybe Wolfensberger to 141 and Lazor to 149. Remember Lazor would still have to weigh in at 141 because they have another dual on Sunday.

 

[Judoka]

I don't think they move Colon, maybe Wolfensberger to 141 and Lazor to 149. Remember Lazor would still have to weigh in at 141 because they have another dual on Sunday.

I think you move Colon because we are stronger at 141 than we are at 133.

The only reason I'm not confident they'll do a bump up is that Lazor only beat Goettl 6-3 last year, so bumping him up would still be a gamble for whether or not they'd be more likely to win. So they'll probably just stick with the normal lineup.

 

[buf87]

I still think you run the same risk whether Wolfensberger wrestle Shayden or Gabe. Not sure one is a better outcome than the other. The only thing that matters is does Schwab think Lazor will beat Goettl at 149. If Lazor is weighing 141 and has to weigh in there again on Sunday, I am not sure that is anywhere close to a sure bet for UNI.

The starting weight might play a bigger factor if we end at 149 or 157 and the dual is in doubt. I don't think it happens if we start at 125 unless Hall wins.

 

[Card1nals]

This should be a very electric atmosphere and wish I could be there. The UNI program has taken a huge leap forward under Schwab. There will not be as much fall off after this year as most on this board thinks. They lose 3 very good seniors, but only Loder is a 1x AA and Colon and Lazor Rd12 once...thus far. Yes, they should have 3 AAs this year and could have as many as 5. Next year for duals, they won't be quite as strong as this year BUT their weak weights will be stronger next year. Patten at 49, Minto at 97, and Cabell at Hwt will be better next year. It is surprising they were able to stay undefeated this year with Lazor, Jensen, Caldwell, and Loder out with injuries. Most of the year they have wrestled with 7 fresh/soph and 1 JC xfer for the year. Having the meet in Ames next year will help the Cyclones but it should be a barn burner next year also

 

[Judoka]

This should be a very electric atmosphere and wish I could be there. The UNI program has taken a huge leap forward under Schwab. There will not be as much fall off after this year as most on this board thinks. They lose 3 very good seniors, but only Loder is a 1x AA and Colon and Lazor Rd12 once...thus far. Yes, they should have 3 AAs this year and could have as many as 5. Next year for duals, they won't be quite as strong as this year BUT their weak weights will be stronger next year. Patten at 49, Minto at 97, and Cabell at Hwt will be better next year. It is surprising they were able to stay undefeated this year with Lazor, Jensen, Caldwell, and Loder out with injuries. Most of the year they have wrestled with 7 fresh/soph and 1 JC xfer for the year. Having the meet in Ames next year will help the Cyclones but it should be a barn burner next year also

The reason UNI is ranked so highly is because of Colon, Loder, Peters and to a lesser extent Moore. Two of them graduate and 125 doesn't lose any top guys to graduation - there are only two seniors in the top 20 and both are below Peters in the rankings. 165 does clear out a bit but is also likely to see guys moving up from 157 and down from 174 with Taylor leaving the scene. UNI will still be a decent dual team next year, but not top ten. And they definitely won't be top 10 at NCAAs unless somebody takes a huge step up for them. UNI isn't going to fall of the face of the earth or anything but this year is very clearly a peak for them for this recruiting cycle.

Even without bonus, a national champion is worth about 20 points at NCAAs, and 8th is only worth around 6. That's a huge difference and Colon's points aren't going to be easily replaced. UNI will be graduating over 30 of the 43 points that they are currently projected to get at NCAAs this year by Intermat.

 

[buf87]

Just not sure who they have that can replace Loder or Lazor. Wolfensberger is going to be rated next year, but not #1.

 

[NEICyFan]

Should be a good one! I see us upsetting them today and we should be better than them next year as well. That said they aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

 

[NEICyFan]

Just not sure who they have that can replace Loder or Lazor. Wolfensberger is going to be rated next year, but not #1.

I believe Patten is actually a 141 pounder wrestling up due to injury. He's done well but I think they expect him back at 141 next year with Hiatt coming back to man 149.

 

[Judoka]

Starting at 197.

 

[Judoka]

Scoreless first period but UNI guy hit with a stalling warning. Kyven down to start the 2nd.

 

[Judoka]

Gadson out quick and gets a TD. Unable to turn Minto but he has a lot of RT and Minto got hit again for stalling. Kyven up 4-0 going into the third period. Minto chooses nuetral.

 

[Judoka]

Kyven wins it 11-3 after a couple takedowns and Minto getting hit again for stalling. Great takedowns but Kyven made a big mental mistake to cut Minto after that last TD. He had a major locked up as long as he held him down but he cut Minto instead with about 30 seconds left. Should have held him down.
Iowa State 4 - 0 UNI

 

[cyclonesurveyor]

FYI, just found the meet on 5.2 panther tv

 

[Judoka]

0-0 first period. Smith was in deep on one shot and made one other attempt. No action from the UNI guy. UNI guy goes down to start the second. Need a good ride here.

 

[Judoka]

0-3 after two. Smith got hit for stalling on top so cut him. Not a lot of action for a while but then Smith got in deep on a single but for some reason switched to a lateral drop that didn't score. Cabell took his first shot of the night near the end and got the TD.

 

[Judoka]

Smith out quick. Down 1-3, RT not a factor.

 

[Judoka]

Smith loses it 5-2. He had a couple really nice half shots and never committed. Cabeel only took two shots the whole match but he scored on both of them. Quean looking miles better but still doesn't trust his shot. I think if he powered through those he would have had multiple takedowns.
Iowa State 4 - 3 UNI

We needed a win at HWT or 125. Need Hall to go big here to get us back in it.

 

[Judoka]

Hall gives up the first points off a nice sweep single from Peters.