I'd agree with all of this. The lineup with Boston, Dante and Downing is what we all hoped to see. However, I wonder what their issues are. Weight? Injury? If/when they return will they have enough matches to 'qualify' the weight (I admit I still don't fully understand these qualifying rules). I also think the gap between them and the current starters may not be that large. This is a product of not having seen enough (or any) of Boston, Dante and Downing this year, but also large improvements by their replacements, particularly Larsen and Dane.
The pre-championship manual says 8 match overall minimum and well as specific 5 matches minimums for a coaches poll ranking and 17 D-1 match minimums for an RPI. We have 7 duals left so Downey can't earn a bid unless he finds an open to go to. Boston could but he'd have to wrestle all 7 and go undefeated (which isn't happening given what we'll see at 125 the rest of the year). Harrington could but he'd have to go 6-1, which would be tough given that there are two top ten guys left on the schedule. Dante easily could. He'd need to wrestle 6 of the 7 remaining duals and go 3-3 (with 3 ranked guys left so just beat the unranked guys and he's in)
That said, since the Big XII is a qualifying event this year earning a bid is good, but not essential. Guys can steal spots. At 125 that'll especially not be an issue, since I expect the conference to have a minimum of 6 bids at that weight, maybe more. So if Boston or Larson win one non-pigtail match they're in to New York.
First coaches panel comes out next Thursday, I think. Once that is out the picture will clear up a lot. Right now there isn't a lot of visibility for what wrestlers are in the 21-30 ranking range. Those guys are the ones that we need to care about for stealing spots. Plus to see where guys like Larson, Breitenbach, Pestano, and Smith stand.
Right now:
125: Will need to steal a spot, but there will be spots to go around at Big XIIs
133: In for sure, rest of the season is about improving seed
141: Will probably have to steal a spot but Dante could earn one.
149: Should earn a spot but it isn't locked up pending knowing RPI. But should be a lock for At Large if something happens.
157: Will need to steal a spot.
165: In for sure, rest of the season is about improving seed
174: Should earn a spot, rest of season is mainly about seeding.
184: Pestano should earn a spot but it isn't locked up pending knowing his RPI. I'm not sure how many bids the Big XII will get at 184 but if Downey can beat out Pestano that's a sign he should be able to steal a bid.
197: Probably will have to steal a spot but (as long as results so far are indicative of what to expect) Harrington would probably be competitive for an at large if need be.
HWT: Will need to steal a spot