Virginia Duals

cyclonenation5

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Dane goes down 0-3. VT guy is ranked 14th and majored Pestano to start the season. So while its a loss, Dane is moving in the right direction. ISU leads 13-11 with two matches left.

Even though he didn't win, these are the kind of results I like seeing. Guys getting better and closing the gap. Didn't expect much from Dane this year but he's been very solid for us. Big win last night for the clones!
 

buf87

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Results
125 - Larson went 3-1 (Loss was dec to #3 Dance) good weekend for Kyle
133 - Hall went 4-0 (wins over #10 McGuire and a very good Gustafson) Have not seen Earl's best wresting yet
141 - Meeks went 2-2 - needs to figure out how to win a close one
149 - Gabe went 3-1 (win over #13 DePalma and loss to an up and down Sal of V)
157 - Nardo went 0-1 (wrestled Miller great, but ....) he really have an opportunity this weekend
157 - Logan went 1-2 (the guy wrestles hard for 7 minutes and hard not to root for)
165 - Tanner went 4-0 (another win over McFadden) A coach told me to had a new attitude going into Midlands, I agree
174 - Spoons went 3-1 (solid weekend, is better than the guy that beat him) Got dinged up a little bit 1st day
184 - Dane - went 3-1 (solid weekend, I am 100% behind Dane) I think he is a NCAA qualifier as of today
197 - Marcus - went 3-1 (solid weekend and getting better with more mat time) Needs to finish those takedowns
Hwt - Quean - went 2-0 (Nice 1st day, getting close to NCAA bid himself)
Hwt - Joe Scanlan - went 0-2 ( but wrestled a solid and smart match against Watz) Good job Joe!

We won the tourney and everybody can say what they want, but remember when we struggled, everybody was saying we always has an EXCUSE why we lost. NO EXCUSES, we won!!!
 

Judoka

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Speaking of Smith and Pestano and NCAA qualification possibilities, here's our starters and main backups D-1 records and win percentages. The magic number is around .700. This isn't the only one that matters, but until the first coaches panel comes out in about 2 weeks its the only number available.

Code:
+--------+---------------------------+------------+-----------+
| Weight |         Wrestler          | D-1 Record | D-1 Win % |
+--------+---------------------------+------------+-----------+
| 141    | Dante Rodriguez           | 9-2        | 0.818     |
| 165    | Tanner Weatherman         | 18-4       | 0.818     |
| 133    | Earl Hall                 | 16-5       | 0.762     |
| 184    | Dane Pestano              | 15-7       | 0.682     |
| 174    | Lelund Weatherspoon       | 14-7       | 0.667     |
| HWT    | Quean Smith               | 9-5        | 0.643     |
| 149    | Gabe Moreno               | 10-6       | 0.625     |
| 157    | Renaldo Rodriguez-Spencer | 10-6       | 0.625     |
| 197    | Marcus Harrington         | 4-3        | 0.571     |
| 197    | Duke Egli                 | 1-1        | 0.500     |
| 141    | John Meeks                | 5-6        | 0.455     |
| 125    | Kyle Larson               | 6-8        | 0.429     |
| 157    | Logan Brietenbach         | 6-9        | 0.400     |
| 125    | Nathan Boston             | 1-3        | 0.250     |
+--------+---------------------------+------------+-----------+
 
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buf87

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Didn't realize Kyle D1 record. Has losses to #3 Dance, #2 Gilman, #10 Lambert and #14 Millhof, & #15 Templeton
 

SouthJerseyCy

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Always somebody that will take a positive and turn it into a negative. Enjoy it and quit *******

Jesus, really? I assume that's directed at me. This is what is turning this board to ****. One is not allowed to say anything remotely objective. I said I was very happy with the win, we just need to slow our roll if we think that it was some 'corner turning' moment. Tell me what about my post was inaccurate?
 

Judoka

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Didn't realize Kyle D1 record. Has losses to #3 Dance, #2 Gilman, #10 Lambert and #14 Millhof, & #15 Templeton

Larson has the worst difference between overall and D-1. Overall he's 17-9, but eleven of his wins and one of his losses were to D-III and NAIA guys.

Two guys, Rodriguez and Weatherman, actually have better D-1 records than overall records.
 

buf87

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Jesus, really? I assume that's directed at me. This is what is turning this board to ****. One is not allowed to say anything remotely objective. I said I was very happy with the win, we just need to slow our roll if we think that it was some 'corner turning' moment. Tell me what about my post was inaccurate?

You are right, probably uncalled for. But do you notice how quiet and how few of posters there are after winning the tourney. If we got beat by any of those first 3 teams, the # of different posters would be far higher.
 

buf87

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I also noticed that George Mason won the Bronze Pool, Kent State won the Silver Pool and Chattanooga won the 3rd place match in Gold Pool.


All were teams Iowa State beat this weekend
 

buf87

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Look, I'm very happy with this win, but let's keep it in perspective. 165 and 184 did better against starters than they did before. 125, 133, 141, & 149 did worse or similar (Gabe lost by a similar score as Briceno, which is not good). 157, 174 & 197 were big swings for us because we were wrestling their backups.

Not totally accurate,
I believe forfeited 197 in 1st dual and Gabel is a solid wrestler for them.
Gustafson is probably as good as Norstrem
I was hoping Gabe would beat Sal, but he was Round of 12 last year, I believe.
157 was a big swing, but health is key in this sport and Brascetta deals with a lot of injuries
 

Judoka

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I was hoping Gabe would beat Sal, but he was Round of 12 last year, I believe.

Yeah, he was the 7 seed and made it to the quarters but lost 0-2 to Tsirtsis and then dropped into a match against Sorenson in the R12 that he lost 1-9. Tsirtsis ended up taking 3rd and Sorenson 4th. So he basically wrestled to seed but had bad luck with upsets dropping highly ranked guys into his part of the consolation bracket. This year he went 2-2 at Vegas and hasn't wrestled since until yesterday, so I assume he got injured in Vegas and that's why he did poorly. Yesterday he lost to #18 Kraus from Arizona State 9-4 in his first match back and then picked up the 6-3 win over Moreno. I figure he'll be back in the rankings on Tuesday in the 18-20 range with a lot of upside if he's healthy.

Last season he beat Moreno 9-3, so it was closer, but still would have liked to see Moreno win.
 

cywr89

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I know VT was without 3 starters but the guys at 157 and 197 were starters last season or most of last season. Also, technically we may have had 5 starters out of the line-up (Boston, Dante, RSR, Downing and Smith. I admit that only Downing and maybe Dante would have made a difference. I only bring this up because a) we still have a lot of room to develop this season and 2) we are starting to get the depth that we have not seen for several years (even before KJ took the job). A week ago I didn't give this team much opportunity to accomplish much this season.
I still have concerns with Earl lack of urgency in his matches, Gabe's slow return to form from his injury (IMO, Gabe Jan. 2015 > Gabe Jan. 2016), RSR attitude, Weatherspoon being up and down and the team's overall inability to wrestle well on the mat but overall we are finally seeing some progress.

Still too early to know what will happen in March but if we can get a "ready to go" Boston and Dante plus Downing in the line-up with Harrington over a 3-4 week stretch, I see this team surprising a lot of people later in the season and setting us up for bigger things in 2016-2017. The main question is will we ever see everyone in the line-up at the same time. Only time will tell. Good start to the New Year for the Clones.
 

SouthJerseyCy

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I know VT was without 3 starters but the guys at 157 and 197 were starters last season or most of last season. Also, technically we may have had 5 starters out of the line-up (Boston, Dante, RSR, Downing and Smith. I admit that only Downing and maybe Dante would have made a difference. I only bring this up because a) we still have a lot of room to develop this season and 2) we are starting to get the depth that we have not seen for several years (even before KJ took the job). A week ago I didn't give this team much opportunity to accomplish much this season.
I still have concerns with Earl lack of urgency in his matches, Gabe's slow return to form from his injury (IMO, Gabe Jan. 2015 > Gabe Jan. 2016), RSR attitude, Weatherspoon being up and down and the team's overall inability to wrestle well on the mat but overall we are finally seeing some progress.

Still too early to know what will happen in March but if we can get a "ready to go" Boston and Dante plus Downing in the line-up with Harrington over a 3-4 week stretch, I see this team surprising a lot of people later in the season and setting us up for bigger things in 2016-2017. The main question is will we ever see everyone in the line-up at the same time. Only time will tell. Good start to the New Year for the Clones.

I'd agree with all of this. The lineup with Boston, Dante and Downing is what we all hoped to see. However, I wonder what their issues are. Weight? Injury? If/when they return will they have enough matches to 'qualify' the weight (I admit I still don't fully understand these qualifying rules). I also think the gap between them and the current starters may not be that large. This is a product of not having seen enough (or any) of Boston, Dante and Downing this year, but also large improvements by their replacements, particularly Larsen and Dane.
 

Judoka

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Worth remembering that while Moreno lost to Mastriani, he also beat #13 DePalma 14-12 on Friday. So overall his ranking will either stay steady or go up. Hall beat the #10 ranked guy, so his ranking will go up. Spoon's loss to Mappes wasn't great so his ranking will probably go down. Weatherman didn't face any ranked guys except the #18 ranked guy that he'd already beaten before so he'll probably stay steady or move up slightly. As a whole this weekend was a net positive for Nationals expectations.

Edit: And the guy Harrington beat is a 2x NCAA qualifier at 174 (in 2013 & 2014). Moved up to 184 last season and was doing pretty well before getting a knee injury. So the guy was up a weight but not a standard backup.
 
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buf87

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Brascetta is 1-1 on the season. Win against us in 1st dual and a loss to Nolf and hasn't wrestled since. Last year he didn't wrestle December and January, so he is good (no doubt), but going to miss a lot of matches
 

Judoka

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I'd agree with all of this. The lineup with Boston, Dante and Downing is what we all hoped to see. However, I wonder what their issues are. Weight? Injury? If/when they return will they have enough matches to 'qualify' the weight (I admit I still don't fully understand these qualifying rules). I also think the gap between them and the current starters may not be that large. This is a product of not having seen enough (or any) of Boston, Dante and Downing this year, but also large improvements by their replacements, particularly Larsen and Dane.

The pre-championship manual says 8 match overall minimum and well as specific 5 matches minimums for a coaches poll ranking and 17 D-1 match minimums for an RPI. We have 7 duals left so Downey can't earn a bid unless he finds an open to go to. Boston could but he'd have to wrestle all 7 and go undefeated (which isn't happening given what we'll see at 125 the rest of the year). Harrington could but he'd have to go 6-1, which would be tough given that there are two top ten guys left on the schedule. Dante easily could. He'd need to wrestle 6 of the 7 remaining duals and go 3-3 (with 3 ranked guys left so just beat the unranked guys and he's in)

That said, since the Big XII is a qualifying event this year earning a bid is good, but not essential. Guys can steal spots. At 125 that'll especially not be an issue, since I expect the conference to have a minimum of 6 bids at that weight, maybe more. So if Boston or Larson win one non-pigtail match they're in to New York.

First coaches panel comes out next Thursday, I think. Once that is out the picture will clear up a lot. Right now there isn't a lot of visibility for what wrestlers are in the 21-30 ranking range. Those guys are the ones that we need to care about for stealing spots. Plus to see where guys like Larson, Breitenbach, Pestano, and Smith stand.

Right now:
125: Will need to steal a spot, but there will be spots to go around at Big XIIs
133: In for sure, rest of the season is about improving seed
141: Will probably have to steal a spot but Dante could earn one.
149: Should earn a spot but it isn't locked up pending knowing RPI. But should be a lock for At Large if something happens.
157: Will need to steal a spot.
165: In for sure, rest of the season is about improving seed
174: Should earn a spot, rest of season is mainly about seeding.
184: Pestano should earn a spot but it isn't locked up pending knowing his RPI. I'm not sure how many bids the Big XII will get at 184 but if Downey can beat out Pestano that's a sign he should be able to steal a bid.
197: Probably will have to steal a spot but (as long as results so far are indicative of what to expect) Harrington would probably be competitive for an at large if need be.
HWT: Will need to steal a spot
 
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