**2020 CF Election Mafia**

JM4CY

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Good analysis Salty. Yes my voting record does suck. To be honest I figured this would at some point come up.

why are you so sure Micheal is inno?

Vote cyfan
 

JM4CY

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Also, I guarantee there is mafia hiding in there with solid voting resumes. We’ve had some weird days this game that I think mafia could pad their stats a little.
 
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cyfanatic13

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I’m not gonna put up much of a fight as I haven’t done much this game to prove my innocence. I’m just a regular innocent that really wants to make sure you guys vote out Fitzy tomorrow
 

bsaltyman

Drinker of Ames Lager
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Sep 20, 2012
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Good analysis Salty. Yes my voting record does suck. To be honest I figured this would at some point come up.

why are you so sure Micheal is inno?

Vote cyfan
I very well could be wrong about Michael, but it would just seem odd if he and SaraV were both mafia and voted for oldman on day one.
 

CycloneNorth

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Mar 29, 2010
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Ok so there are 13 players left, and 3 are mafia. The trouble now is that everyone left has voted for mafia at least once. I’ll list out those votes here:

Cows: Day 3 for SCN, day 4 for SCN, Day 5 for Sara, Day 6 for Azhuth
Clonies: Day 3 for SCN, day 4 for SCN, day 5 for Sara
Discy: Day 3 for SCN, day 4 for SCN, Day 6 for Azhuth
Arob: Day 4 for SCN, day 5 for Sara, day 6 for Azhuth
North: Day 4 for SCN, day 5 for Azhuth, day 6 for Azhuth
Spiker: day 4 for SCN, day 5 for Sara
Mj4cy: day 5 for Sara, day 6 for Azhuth
Fitzy: day 4 for SCN, day 6 for Azhuth
KC: day 3 for SCN, day 4 for SCN
Bsalty: day 3 for Sara, day 6 for Azhuth
Michael: day 4 for SCN, day 5 for Sara
Cyfan: day 4 for SCN
JM4CY: day 3 for SCN

I would tend to lean inno on those that have voted for mafia 3 or 4 times so far, and I’m inno as well. That would leave the following: spiker, mj4cy, Fitzy, KC, JM4CY, Michael, and Cyfan. Of those 7, here is how I would rank them from most to least likely to be mafia:
1) Cyfan
2) KC
3) JM4CY
4) mj4cy
5) spiker
6) Fitzy
7) Michael

Let me know what you think. Also, vote Cyfan.

Fitzy is near the top of my list and you’ve been very insistent that he’s inno. Why is that?
 

bsaltyman

Drinker of Ames Lager
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Fitzy is near the top of my list and you’ve been very insistent that he’s inno. Why is that?
Mostly because he was pushing the Vikes theory that led to Sara being outed, even though he voted Michael at the time. I also listed him #6 most likely to be mafia out of 13, so it’s not that I’m overly confident in his innocence either.
I’m just trying to put my thoughts out there. I’m sure that I’m not 100% right on everything.
 

Fitzy

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Alright, time to take off the gloves. Let's take a look at cyfan's game so far.

Day 1 - Votes for me. This is the reasoning:

Whoops forgot this was starting. Vote Fitzy cause he's obv maf

Day 2 - Votes for Vikes after Vikes says "it's Day 2. I'm not gonna try to create some sort of theory based on what we know."

That’s weird. Vote Vikes

Day 3 - With the now-known mafia SCNCY at the top of the vote count, cyfan throws his vote away on Cows at 6:03 p.m. instead of voting for SCNCY or one of the leading vote-getters. Also makes his infamous "I'll do some digging tomorrow morning" line that seems to imply he knows he'll live to see the next day.

I'll vote cows for the time being. Not being able to check up on the thread much throughout the day makes mafia much less fun. I'm going to do some digging tomorrow morning and I'll tell you guys who's all mafia

Day 4 - Votes for SCNCY one minute after I do in the morning and then makes a weird claim that the mafia killing Vikes overnight is somehow me setting him up. If that's the "digging" we were promised, he managed to dig up a couple blades of grass.

Vote SCN. Killing Vikes after he questioned me yesterday was a very Fitzy thing to do. And I think he may be hopping on early today so he can say he was one of the first to vote for a mafia

This doesn't even make sense. Vikes voted for Michael yesterday.

You seem to be trying to craft a narrative.

Day 5 - Comes after me for doing the exact same thing he did the previous day. Keep in mind this was the day that it made the most sense logically to vote out michael or Sara based on what we knew about Vikes' votes on days 2 and 3 - this early vote was probably an attempt to get people distracted from that.

And I think at least one would've had to come in early. Which also includes me in that list lol. But I'll vote Fitzy

Day 6 - Posts a grand total of two times in the thread before saying this gem:

Very odd from someone that hasn't talked all day until now

Also, regarding yesterday's vote, I'm definitely leaning toward Michael being innocent now. With no viable third alternatives put up, the mafia would be really dumb to allow two of their own to be the only lynch options. And guess who voted for Michael... Cyfan.

This completes my dissertation on why Cyfan is likely mafia, and if not, just playing a no-good, very bad game.

Vote cyfanatic13.


TL;DR - cyfan BAD.
 

JM4CY

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Alright, time to take off the gloves. Let's take a look at cyfan's game so far.

Day 1 - Votes for me. This is the reasoning:



Day 2 - Votes for Vikes after Vikes says "it's Day 2. I'm not gonna try to create some sort of theory based on what we know."



Day 3 - With the now-known mafia SCNCY at the top of the vote count, cyfan throws his vote away on Cows at 6:03 p.m. instead of voting for SCNCY or one of the leading vote-getters. Also makes his infamous "I'll do some digging tomorrow morning" line that seems to imply he knows he'll live to see the next day.



Day 4 - Votes for SCNCY one minute after I do in the morning and then makes a weird claim that the mafia killing Vikes overnight is somehow me setting him up. If that's the "digging" we were promised, he managed to dig up a couple blades of grass.





Day 5 - Comes after me for doing the exact same thing he did the previous day. Keep in mind this was the day that it made the most sense logically to vote out michael or Sara based on what we knew about Vikes' votes on days 2 and 3 - this early vote was probably an attempt to get people distracted from that.



Day 6 - Posts a grand total of two times in the thread before saying this gem:



Also, regarding yesterday's vote, I'm definitely leaning toward Michael being innocent now. With no viable third alternatives put up, the mafia would be really dumb to allow two of their own to be the only lynch options. And guess who voted for Michael... Cyfan.

This completes my dissertation on why Cyfan is likely mafia, and if not, just playing a no-good, very bad game.

Vote cyfanatic13.


TL;DR - cyfan BAD.
Well after wasting all my work poop time reading that, it’s pretty convincing. The day 5 thing stands out the most to me and looks absolutely atrocious if he actually inno, which I doubt strongly.
 

JM4CY

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Alright, time to take off the gloves. Let's take a look at cyfan's game so far.

Day 1 - Votes for me. This is the reasoning:



Day 2 - Votes for Vikes after Vikes says "it's Day 2. I'm not gonna try to create some sort of theory based on what we know."



Day 3 - With the now-known mafia SCNCY at the top of the vote count, cyfan throws his vote away on Cows at 6:03 p.m. instead of voting for SCNCY or one of the leading vote-getters. Also makes his infamous "I'll do some digging tomorrow morning" line that seems to imply he knows he'll live to see the next day.



Day 4 - Votes for SCNCY one minute after I do in the morning and then makes a weird claim that the mafia killing Vikes overnight is somehow me setting him up. If that's the "digging" we were promised, he managed to dig up a couple blades of grass.





Day 5 - Comes after me for doing the exact same thing he did the previous day. Keep in mind this was the day that it made the most sense logically to vote out michael or Sara based on what we knew about Vikes' votes on days 2 and 3 - this early vote was probably an attempt to get people distracted from that.



Day 6 - Posts a grand total of two times in the thread before saying this gem:



Also, regarding yesterday's vote, I'm definitely leaning toward Michael being innocent now. With no viable third alternatives put up, the mafia would be really dumb to allow two of their own to be the only lynch options. And guess who voted for Michael... Cyfan.

This completes my dissertation on why Cyfan is likely mafia, and if not, just playing a no-good, very bad game.

Vote cyfanatic13.


TL;DR - cyfan BAD.
Also, that’s a pretty good point about Micheal, unless mafia are playing some kind of long con game there or something else I can’t figure out.
 

cyfanatic13

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To @Fitzy:

Alright, time to take off the gloves. Let's take a look at cyfan's game so far.

Day 1 - Votes for me. This is the reasoning:

And I'm right

Day 2 - Votes for Vikes after Vikes says "it's Day 2. I'm not gonna try to create some sort of theory based on what we know."

Whoops


Day 3 - With the now-known mafia SCNCY at the top of the vote count, cyfan throws his vote away on Cows at 6:03 p.m. instead of voting for SCNCY or one of the leading vote-getters. Also makes his infamous "I'll do some digging tomorrow morning" line that seems to imply he knows he'll live to see the next day.

This seems to be one of the biggest reasons why people think I'm suspicious and it's pretty weak. I figured I was safe as there had been no reason for mafia to think I was any sort of threat.

Day 4 - Votes for SCNCY one minute after I do in the morning and then makes a weird claim that the mafia killing Vikes overnight is somehow me setting him up. If that's the "digging" we were promised, he managed to dig up a couple blades of grass.

I'm guessing mafia knew SCN was probably going home so it makes sense to get their votes in early. I realize I did it too, nothing much I can even do to defend myself there

Day 5 - Comes after me for doing the exact same thing he did the previous day. Keep in mind this was the day that it made the most sense logically to vote out michael or Sara based on what we knew about Vikes' votes on days 2 and 3 - this early vote was probably an attempt to get people distracted from that.

The funny thing is until yesterday our voting records have been very similar. WITHOUT BRINGING UP MY AWFUL VOTING RECORD, it's a little suspicious that you voted early for michael day 5, not Sara the mafia. Then your vote yesterday looks good but it was also late when azhuth was already in the lead so perhaps just padding the voting record?


Day 6 - Posts a grand total of two times in the thread before saying this gem:

Another weak point. I said what I said cause a couple posters had started to mention my name and I just wanted to reiterate I think you're mafia. My reply to you was being snarky as you hadn't been around all day then magically show up after I bring up your name. For a normally very active poster, pretty sus

Also, regarding yesterday's vote, I'm definitely leaning toward Michael being innocent now. With no viable third alternatives put up, the mafia would be really dumb to allow two of their own to be the only lynch options. And guess who voted for Michael... Cyfan.

This completes my dissertation on why Cyfan is likely mafia, and if not, just playing a no-good, very bad game.

Vote cyfanatic13.


TL;DR - cyfan BAD.

This is probably the extent of my effort defending myself. Seems like I've been reg inno in the last ten games except for one where I was mafia and we got killed from the start. Probably should've had more effort from the beginning and to my fellow innocents, I apologize. If you decide to vote me out today, which I do understand, my dying wish is to please vote Fitzy out tomorrow. It's all I have left.
 

cyfanatic13

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The above was not a vote for myself, accidentally left that in their from just copy and pasting Fitzy's manifesto. But just in case rescind cyfan13 vote Fitzy
 
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Fitzy

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The above was not a vote for myself, accidentally left that in their from just copy and pasting Fitzy's manifesto. But just in case rescind cyfan13 vote Fitzy
The only valid point you make in that response, IMO, is this section:

The funny thing is until yesterday our voting records have been very similar. WITHOUT BRINGING UP MY AWFUL VOTING RECORD, it's a little suspicious that you voted early for michael day 5, not Sara the mafia. Then your vote yesterday looks good but it was also late when azhuth was already in the lead so perhaps just padding the voting record?

I voted for michael on day 5 because that's who Vikes voted for between the two. And as of yesterday, I was still skeptical about michael's innocence and figured he would come in and vote to save himself late, opening up the door for someone to switch their vote last second. Not to mention the vote suppressor (WHO I HELPED VOTE OUT, BY THE WAY) could have come into play had I not voted the way I did.
 

JM4CY

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These were from Friday and yesterday after the day result announcements when a mafia member was voted out both days. Guess who he voted for both of those days? Not either of those mafia members. This screams mafia trying to pass as innocent.

I vote JM4CY.
This is garbage and you know it. I switched and voted SCN Very late the night he should of been lynched but it got extended because of that stupid runoff. Mafia doesn’t do that. I would of voted for him the next day but didn’t because I thought we would learn more if it wasn’t a run away.

Also, that is some weak sauce bullsh*t reasoning because I post something like that every game as some kind of reaction at the end of the night. You know this. You’re a smart player.

I made it extremely clear yesterday that I was fine with either person getting lynched yesterday and voted for you because salty had already voted for azhuth. Had he voted for you I would of voted azhuth. I almost rescinded because I thought azhuth was dirtier but didn’t again because I thought we would learn more with more people up top and offered the ideas that we put you and him in the top two to assure one of you goes home if the vote person comes into play. Again, mafia doesn’t do that.

We still don’t know that your clean and people have voted for you all game. Although I do think you probably are at this point but now am rethinking it. Why wouldn’t you use your vote on someone with all kinds of other questions other than me unless your distracting because your mafia.
 

PSYclone22

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Aug 15, 2012
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Day 7 vote count

3cyfanbsalty 8:39am
JM4CY 8:47am
Fitzy 9:53am
2Fitzydiscy 9:23am
cyfan 10:20am
1JM4CYmichael 11:20am
 

CloniesForLife

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Ok so there are 13 players left, and 3 are mafia. The trouble now is that everyone left has voted for mafia at least once. I’ll list out those votes here:

Cows: Day 3 for SCN, day 4 for SCN, Day 5 for Sara, Day 6 for Azhuth
Clonies: Day 3 for SCN, day 4 for SCN, day 5 for Sara
Discy: Day 3 for SCN, day 4 for SCN, Day 6 for Azhuth
Arob: Day 4 for SCN, day 5 for Sara, day 6 for Azhuth
North: Day 4 for SCN, day 5 for Azhuth, day 6 for Azhuth
Spiker: day 4 for SCN, day 5 for Sara
Mj4cy: day 5 for Sara, day 6 for Azhuth
Fitzy: day 4 for SCN, day 6 for Azhuth
KC: day 3 for SCN, day 4 for SCN
Bsalty: day 3 for Sara, day 6 for Azhuth
Michael: day 4 for SCN, day 5 for Sara
Cyfan: day 4 for SCN
JM4CY: day 3 for SCN

I would tend to lean inno on those that have voted for mafia 3 or 4 times so far, and I’m inno as well. That would leave the following: spiker, mj4cy, Fitzy, KC, JM4CY, Michael, and Cyfan. Of those 7, here is how I would rank them from most to least likely to be mafia:
1) Cyfan
2) KC
3) JM4CY
4) mj4cy
5) spiker
6) Fitzy
7) Michael

Let me know what you think. Also, vote Cyfan.
Good thoughts. I have been kind of suspicious of MJ plus he's quiet. Vote MJ
 

CycloneNorth

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Mar 29, 2010
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Nashville, TN
Vote Cyfan. Worst voting record and I think we have enough data for that to mean something. The fact that his only vote was on a runaway makes him look slightly worse than JM4CY.