What I really wonder is the what the increase in attendance will be for the schools outside of BYU once they would join the B12. What does that do for a Cincy, UCF, UH and then some of the less likely additions like ,Memphis, USF, CSU, BSU
If the B12 remains intact and moves forward
- Thread starter Win5002
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What I really wonder is the what the increase in attendance will be for the schools outside of BYU once they would join the B12. What does that do for a Cincy, UCF, UH and then some of the less likely additions like ,Memphis, USF, CSU, BSU
It's hard to figure this out because there is only one useful comparator in the recent era of CFB in terms of elevating a team from a non-power conference to a power league, and that is TCU. The most recent before that were teams that were being pulled up to kind of a fringe power league in the Big East and their attendance numbers don't really change. But TCU's did.
TCU
2007 - 30,018
2008 - 30,389
2009 - 38,187 (Rose Bowl season)
2010 - 42,446
2011 - 33,686 (reduced capacity for renovation)
2012 - begins Big 12 play - 46,047
2013 - 43,598
2014 - 44,719
2015 - 46,767
Mtn West average (excluding 2011) - 35,260
Big 12 average - 45,283
Percent increase - 28.4%
TCU is probably the absolute ceiling since they were so well positioned geographically to benefit from Big 12 visiting fans coming to their stadium. I don't think adding UCF or Boise State to the Big 12 means we are going to see a 28% increase in their attendance. But it is at least a cause for optimism.
For example, Morgantown is totally on an island in the Big 12; Cincinnati is less than a five hour drive for them. Cincinnati is sure to see a visitor bump when it hosts WVU, in addition to a bump in its own fan attendance for playing more meaningful and high-profile games. The other options that we have heard the most about don't fit this profile, but Houston or Memphis could.
We have to look behind these attendance numbers, especially in the Pac-12. These numbers are likely tickets bought. I know everybody accounts it like this, but I would venture the actual people in stands versus tickets sold are much higher in the Big 12.
Looks like they cut a deal with ESPN. Grab 4 teams, get to 12, keep P5 designation, keep a foothold in TX for recruiting, while strengthening it in Ohio and Florida, likely get a bump in TV revenue to allow TX/OU out early, oh, and they still get the buyout amount. All in all, probably not the worst thing in the world. The loss of playing OU/TX yearly comes with the benefit of greater opportunity to play at the highest stage. Going forward most of the money is in the off season.
12 teams allows 8 conference games as well, which opens the ability to do what the alliance is doing in scheduling. I hear the SEC is looking for friends for home and homes as everyone looks to keep 7 home games.
12 teams allows 8 conference games as well, which opens the ability to do what the alliance is doing in scheduling. I hear the SEC is looking for friends for home and homes as everyone looks to keep 7 home games.
I'm curious as to what the divisions of a twelve team Big 12 would look like? I can see the following options:
Big 12 North: Iowa State, BYU, Cinci, Kansas, K-State, WVU
Big 12 South: Baylor, Houston, Okie State, TCU, Tech, UCF
As with the old Big 12 alignment, this has the same problem for recruitment with all the Texas schools in one division. However, it appears somewhat more balanced competitively with the northern schools looking slightly stronger on their face.
Big 12 East: Iowa State, Baylor, Cinci, Houston, UCF, WVU
Big 12 West: BYU, Kansas, K-State, Okie State, TCU, Tech
For the Eastern schools and BYU, this is probably the cheapest option regarding travel. It also splits the four Texas schools assuring one game in Texas a year for recruiting. Again, a decent balance but I think you can play with which Texas schools go where to help achieve this.
Big 12 "Legends": Iowa State, BYU, Houston, K-State, Okie-State, Tech
Big 12 "Leaders": Baylor, Cinci, Kansas, TCU, UCF, WVU
You can mix and match whoever you'd like but something similar to what the Big Ten tried after they added Nebraska. Could be re-aligned every x number of years to rebalance the conference but doesn't make great sense travel wise.
I would assume 8 to 9 conference games a year playing everyone in your division plus 3-4 of the other division. Could through in a protected rival from the other division to help maintain some of the Big 8 rivalries. The divisions would also be the baseline for the home and home basketball games similar to how it was in the old Big 12.
All in all, it could be a lot better but it could be a lot worse too. I think this conference has a seat at the table and would be fun to watch in football and absolutely great in basketball. Hoping for the best, expecting the worst!
Big 12 North: Iowa State, BYU, Cinci, Kansas, K-State, WVU
Big 12 South: Baylor, Houston, Okie State, TCU, Tech, UCF
As with the old Big 12 alignment, this has the same problem for recruitment with all the Texas schools in one division. However, it appears somewhat more balanced competitively with the northern schools looking slightly stronger on their face.
Big 12 East: Iowa State, Baylor, Cinci, Houston, UCF, WVU
Big 12 West: BYU, Kansas, K-State, Okie State, TCU, Tech
For the Eastern schools and BYU, this is probably the cheapest option regarding travel. It also splits the four Texas schools assuring one game in Texas a year for recruiting. Again, a decent balance but I think you can play with which Texas schools go where to help achieve this.
Big 12 "Legends": Iowa State, BYU, Houston, K-State, Okie-State, Tech
Big 12 "Leaders": Baylor, Cinci, Kansas, TCU, UCF, WVU
You can mix and match whoever you'd like but something similar to what the Big Ten tried after they added Nebraska. Could be re-aligned every x number of years to rebalance the conference but doesn't make great sense travel wise.
I would assume 8 to 9 conference games a year playing everyone in your division plus 3-4 of the other division. Could through in a protected rival from the other division to help maintain some of the Big 8 rivalries. The divisions would also be the baseline for the home and home basketball games similar to how it was in the old Big 12.
All in all, it could be a lot better but it could be a lot worse too. I think this conference has a seat at the table and would be fun to watch in football and absolutely great in basketball. Hoping for the best, expecting the worst!
I would assume they'll split Texas up, since there are four teams and most of the teams in the conference recruit heavily out of there so they'll want games there regularly.
Its all for fun, but if I were doing it, I think I'd mix it all up and go with regional pods, mostly because the geography is wonky and BYU/UCF are on islands:
North: ISU, KSU, KU
West: BYU, Tech, TCU
South: OkSt, Baylor, Houston
East: Cinci, WVU, UCF
Eight game schedule - play your own group and two from each of the others yearly. Mix and match, top to conference records to the CCG.
If you do a scheduling alliance and H&H yearly you're at 10 P5 games and 5 home. Two left over gives you the option of playing two at home for 7 home, or do another H&H for 6.
Its all for fun, but if I were doing it, I think I'd mix it all up and go with regional pods, mostly because the geography is wonky and BYU/UCF are on islands:
North: ISU, KSU, KU
West: BYU, Tech, TCU
South: OkSt, Baylor, Houston
East: Cinci, WVU, UCF
Eight game schedule - play your own group and two from each of the others yearly. Mix and match, top to conference records to the CCG.
If you do a scheduling alliance and H&H yearly you're at 10 P5 games and 5 home. Two left over gives you the option of playing two at home for 7 home, or do another H&H for 6.
to be fair, any good college program is one bad hire away from mediocrity
Iowa State could emerge as one of the premier teams in the Big 12. Campbell has built his Culture into his Program at Iowa State. Campbell has stated that he has long admired Bill Snyder at the job he had done at K-State. As long as Big 12 gets an automatic bid to the CFP. And keep it at 8 teams for a while. Each Conference gets 2 teams maximum in the CFP. Automatic qualifier for the G6 Conferences. 2 at-large. Conference Championships will mean something. And those Conference Championship Games could be considered your First Game on the quest for the CFP Champion. A 3rd or 4th place SEC team should already be eliminated from the CFP.
I actually think this is the hidden silver lining in all of this mess. It is clear now that the post season, in an expanded format, is worth more than the combined regular seasons of the conferences, especially if it is allowed to be shared with multiple networks. With access the teams in this league should have a greater chance of standing out in a 12 team field.
ESPN wants TX/OU out early, but the Big 12 owns the rights through 2025. That gives them leverage with ESPN to provide those rights, and I believe this move to 4 is an indication that a deal has been made, which could include:
1) Continue to be a member of the P5 (or Autonomy Five)
2) OOC match ups against SEC
3) Elevated rights agreements going forward
4) Continued partnership on Sugar Bowl
5) Possible collaboration with "Alliance" or inclusion into any new league
If this set up can keep 4-5 teams in the Top 25 yearly and including top ten teams, like the two ranked currently, its not worth nothing. The question will be what occurs once the opportunity is provided. The biggest issue the Big 12 has had is it hasn't won when the opportunities occurred in the past decade. If this version can break the seal, all bets are off going forward if it holds a few natties. Look at the difference in the ACC, stability isn't a conversation because Clemson and FSU have won titles in the playoff era.
It will be interesting to see what this may be worth in a decade should these teams continue success.
Number Monkey is the reported 20 to 25M just for reg season tv rights(does that include CCG $)? Is The CFP bowl money, and NCAAA bball in addition to that? And if so any idea on the range of pos-season money?
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When you hear those numbers those are just regular season and CCG, what they sell to media partners, not full conference payouts. So things like sponsor ships, NCAA money, conference networks, etc, will all add to that. There are a few moving pieces and all of the conferences do it slightly different. For instance, the SEC only makes about $20m a year, per school, for selling everything to ESPN, where the Big Ten makes more, due to owning half of BTN, difference in the yearly figures is the NCAA/Post season, etc.
As you can see, being in the $20-25m range isn't a terrible place to be.
The post season is still up in the air. Prior to the TX/OU move they would have expanded it easily with ESPN and they probably would have got a sweetheart deal maybe doing 1.5-2x the value of today. Now there are pissed off conferences who are wanting to open it up. Its possible the post season could be worth 2-3+ times what it is today, which means you could get $1-1.5+billion per year. Even if you divide 2/3ds of that 5 ways you're talking about $200M per conference.
Keep in mind that expanding the playoffs to 12 and opening it up to more networks like the NFL does may make the regular season worth more, if, say, NBC or CBS or FOX or Amazon want a conferences regular and post season opportunities. If I were the new Big 12 I'd be doing everything I can to get that CBS weekly slot, even if I took less money to nab it. They are going to need to ***** themselves out for as much exposure as they can get as they try and prove they belong without a blue blood anchor.
As you can see, being in the $20-25m range isn't a terrible place to be.
The post season is still up in the air. Prior to the TX/OU move they would have expanded it easily with ESPN and they probably would have got a sweetheart deal maybe doing 1.5-2x the value of today. Now there are pissed off conferences who are wanting to open it up. Its possible the post season could be worth 2-3+ times what it is today, which means you could get $1-1.5+billion per year. Even if you divide 2/3ds of that 5 ways you're talking about $200M per conference.
Keep in mind that expanding the playoffs to 12 and opening it up to more networks like the NFL does may make the regular season worth more, if, say, NBC or CBS or FOX or Amazon want a conferences regular and post season opportunities. If I were the new Big 12 I'd be doing everything I can to get that CBS weekly slot, even if I took less money to nab it. They are going to need to ***** themselves out for as much exposure as they can get as they try and prove they belong without a blue blood anchor.
