If the B12 remains intact and moves forward
- Thread starter Win5002
- Start date
I just think if and when Amazon decides to get into the game of college football, and I think they will pretty soon, that they won't have a problem maybe overpaying somewhat. They're going to probably want to make a big splash. And a teams value to them might be a bit different than say FOX or ESPN (boo!) because they currently have zero inventory of games and minimal sunk costs. And as others have talked about on here Amazon would maybe have other ways of making money off their teams other than broadcasting games. Things like teamstores on their website or maybe even Amazon retail teamstores on college campuses.
I'm also assuming here there would be other TV partners involved in the deal supplementing whatever Amazon would pay.
Now maybe that would be just an appetizer for when the B1G & PAC deals come up for negotiation and they make a play there.
Look, if I'm being honest, I was a bit surprised the Big XII got as much money as they did with their TV deal after adding TCU & WV. Pleasantly surprised no doubt, but I was surprised teams were making more than PAC and ACC teams to be honest.
Of course I might be completely wrong on all of this but we'll see.
With the amount of money involved, this will be a Disney call, so I doubt it! ESPN will have to get the schools to pay!
There is still the matter of the cease and desist order.
Texas and ou will pay their share. Espn will pay a lump sum payout to take care of their exposure to any litigation.
You have to remember how close ut and ou were to going to the pac12 then. Espn made a business decision because they didn’t want to lose those brands to fox.
I’m guessing Amazon will be explored, of course, but will they make up the shortfall? If the media draw is what is keeping the remaining 8 from finding new homes, then Amazon will buy at bargain price.
The truly frightening part, and you alluded to it, is that they use the big 12 as a testing ground to learn how, and then move on to some sort of big 10 amalgamation
With OU and Texas leaving, I’m guessing tv revenue drops by 14 million per year. Not exactly a small hit. As for whether it’s short term or not, I have no clue there.
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As pointed out earlier, streaming offers all three levels of advertising( 'blanket', 'regional', and 'personal'). Blanket is, typically, branding or a very broad level product which most people buy. Regional is your local restaurant, bar, car dealership, etc. And, personal is content based off your internet habits (only if cookies are on or if background entities [eg Google] are marketing your habits). Furthermore, being 'interactive' allows 'clicks' to measure response. The same could be roughly measured using 'enter this code and get a discount' philosophy. To finish, streaming offers a huge benefit over area broadcast to the advertisers. This, can be argued as a plus or minus to the content delivery people (ESPN, FOX, etc). The advertisers want more effective advertising. The content delivery wants the advertisers to 'believe' they have credible purchasing habits of their viewers. And, of course, to not leave out the 'content creators' (ie the schools), they're in the best spot if they can guarantee 'in-stadium' ad revenue (which is showing all game long). But, then again, that's if the content providers don't take a piece of that pie (which I'm sure they would/do).
As suggested earlier, I believe Amazon can make up the difference by keeping only the eight and aggressively scheduling only P5s OOC. If marketed correctly, it's a big win for Amazon, the A8, and even the other conferences. The A8 would then become the best interconference measuring stick leading up to the CFP. The trump card would be if the other P5s don't want to play ball. That's where Amazon clout can come in, benefitting everyone $$$ wise.
The contractual obligations are between the Big12 Conference and it's 10 members schools.
The money would have to come from OU & Texas. ESPN making a direct payment to Big12 would in essence admit to wrong doing related to the cease & desist.
That's not to say ESPN couldn't make payments to OU/UT if they want them in SEC sooner.
But they would have to justify that to Disney. And if playoffs don't expand until Big12 GOR expires- some of the urgency to leave is gone. Also if playoffs do expand, but rights split been 2 or 3 networks- ESPN might not be so generous.
Maybe but I feel we need to go to at least 12 teams. We have been at 10 teams and it is the perfect number due to football and round robin in basketball. But the Big 12 always was put down for total revenue (even though per team we were better), # of draft picks, # of bowls, etc. Recruits hear this negative talk even if crap (hello, Stew Mandel). Plus, the Big East milked 7 teams after their defections and eventually folded. Oliver Luck gave advice to the Big 12 many years ago when he was West Virginia AD that to not be complacent when defections happen. The Big 12 stayed at 10 to appease OU and Texas and didn't work.
It really should be BYU, UH, Cincy and UCF if you want the 4 that give most value possible. If networks will pay for late night games we can consider 1 or 2 more western teams.
Until the B12 settles their disputes the national media narrative will probably unfairly portray the league as doing nothing.
Until the B12 settles their disputes the national media narrative will probably unfairly portray the league as doing nothing.
No, but this is becoming a more interesting question to me as we go through this.
Seems to me that there many programs that wear that label only by association with blue bloods in their conference (by the current average major media definition).
Seems to me, when we're assessing this question, the following things should be looked at:
- Quality of facilities
- The level of commitment to athletics
- The passion of the fan base
- Their history
That is, in part, my point. If some of these schools had latched onto the right conferences decades ago, and others had not, we may be viewing Cincinnati as "power level" and Purdue as "not worthy" (to take a random example).
Totally agree with this. Dug up some attendance data, which is not as good as TV numbers but a lot easier for somebody like me to understand.
2016-19 Average Attendance
BYU - 56,715
UCF - 40,113*
Boise State - 32,634
Cincinnati - 32,131
*This jumps up to about 44,000 for just 2018-19
2019 Big 12 Average Attendance:
Iowa State - 59,794
West Virginia - 55,907
Oklahoma State - 54,817
Texas Tech - 53,418
Kansas State - 48,818
Baylor - 45,517
TCU - 42,881
Kansas - 33,875
2019 Notable Power 5 Average Attendance:
Utah - 46,462
UCLA - 43,849
Cal - 42,433
Arizona - 39,532
Stanford - 37,018
Oregon State - 32,424
Washington State - 28,541
Georgia Tech - 44,599
Pitt - 43,372
Syracuse - 42,164
Boston College - 34,185
Wake Forest - 26,999
Duke - 25,811
Minnesota - 46,190
Indiana - 41,244
Maryland - 37,812
Illinois - 36,587
Rutgers - 30,082
Ole Miss - 48,233
Vanderbilt - 26,288
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From this alone, BYU is easily in the P5 ranks and would rank 2nd out of 9 in the Big 12. UCF is also very solidly in range. And based on TCU's data, Boise State or Cincinnati would receive a power-conference bump that would still keep them on the low end, but certainly not the lowest among the Power 5.
There are definitely schools in Power 5 leagues that are only there because they always have been. They drag down the conference's financial value and take far more than they offer. The schools the Big 12 is considering would not do that to the existing eight.
It would be good if streaming platforms did start making some bids just to increase the players in the market and drive up demand.
I have no idea what Amazon or other streaming platforms will do, they could come in on CFB but I think its a little cart before horse right now. Anything is possible and it sounds like they are moving in that direction, especially Amazon, but still way to early to tell right now.
B1G and Pac12 are also coming up to renew about the same time as the Big12, or just before. Who's to say they would be interested in Big12 vs those brands? Again, the major positive would be more players bidding for the same amount of inventory.
I have no idea what Amazon or other streaming platforms will do, they could come in on CFB but I think its a little cart before horse right now. Anything is possible and it sounds like they are moving in that direction, especially Amazon, but still way to early to tell right now.
B1G and Pac12 are also coming up to renew about the same time as the Big12, or just before. Who's to say they would be interested in Big12 vs those brands? Again, the major positive would be more players bidding for the same amount of inventory.
BYU,
BYU absolutely.
For the others it depends what your definition is. UCF could definitely replace some programs in the P5 as a better program. Cincy could replace less schools but some of them. USF probably needs to grow into it but might have the potential. Especially when you factor existing P5 schools that are on the bottom end already have P5 advantages.
You didn't include Houston but whether they are a P5 or not, they will add the most eyeballs to existing games of any of the schools, except MAYBE BYU.
