Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[exCyDing]

The only way they would renegotiate the deal would be if someone joins/leaves. But that is separate from the GoR. With that there is nothing that says they will substantially increase the deal, rather it could be just increase/decrease the pay by said number of teams joining/leaving. For instance just add the current rate of pay for someone joining.

But any team that joins the ACC is required to sign on to their GoR Until 2036.

Lots of different angles to consider, but I'd assume nobody from the PAC makes a move until there are firm offers for their new media deal.

I'm guessing the numbers aren't going to be great. I could be wrong - maybe Amazon, Apple or Netflix is willing to pay a premium to get into college football. CBS might really not want to get shut out of college football. Maybe NBC wants to have more content to put around Notre Dame games. But I would not expect Fox or ESPN to pay a premium for the PAC.

If the race is on for the #3 conference, the race is on for who gets to broadcast it. That means the Big XII and ACC are (most likely) going to compete to get a few PAC members. I could see ESPN being willing to re-negotiate the ACC's deal, or Fox trying to lock down the Big XII early, but each trying to out-do the other.

 

[2speedy1]

Lots of different angles to consider, but I'd assume nobody from the PAC makes a move until there are firm offers for their new media deal.

I'm guessing the numbers aren't going to be great. I could be wrong - maybe Amazon, Apple or Netflix is willing to pay a premium to get into college football. CBS might really not want to get shut out of college football. Maybe NBC wants to have more content to put around Notre Dame games. But I would not expect Fox or ESPN to pay a premium for the PAC.

If the race is on for the #3 conference, the race is on for who gets to broadcast it. That means the Big XII and ACC are (most likely) going to compete to get a few PAC members. I could see ESPN being willing to re-negotiate the ACC's deal, or Fox trying to lock down the Big XII early, but each trying to out-do the other.

I believe this is the exact reason the PAC schools are "saying" they are sticking together. The only way they get a good offer, or even any offer is from the position of strength, no matter how much of a false sense of strength it is.

They are all saying they are sticking together in order to get media companies to bid on them, if they continue the narrative that everyone is bailing, no one will want to bid or bid high for them.

 

[Scruff]

 

[StLouisClone]

So if some of you are correct that this comes down to the P12's talks over media rights, we should have an answer by around July 31st. Let's say there is a big positive surprise for the remaining 10 schools and they all sign a new GOR. I assume the B12 will then try to renegotiate a new deal as well?

 

[JP4CY]

I think Taco Bell would be better.
It's there, no one will say its really all that good but once you've had a few drinks and it's late at night you'll give it a shot and then immediately regret it.

 

[StPaulCyclone]

Hey kids but schools will need to charge 8% more for tuition and board next year. Scam.

Just wait until this BiG and SEC CFB money starts showing up. Think they will buy down tuition?

 

[StPaulCyclone]

Tuition should be lower.

EDIT: do'h. just saw yowza's comment.

Beat me to it.

 

[BCClone]

Just wait until this BiG and SEC CFB money starts showing up. Think they will buy down tuition?

Iowa might pay off some lawsuits

 

[Cyforce]

Iowa might pay off some lawsuits

Or pay their contractors in a timely manner.

 

[CloneGuy8]

Iowa might pay off some lawsuits

Or pay their contractors in a timely manner.

Kirk will be giving Brian a $50 million annual raise.

 

[jdoggivjc]

Iowa might pay off some lawsuits

Wonder if some of those include unpaid bills from the Children's Hospital.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Just wait until this BiG and SEC CFB money starts showing up. Think they will buy down tuition?

“Oh, but you see, athletic department funds have always been separate from the general fund, we can’t change that now”

Although seriously that’s why coaching salaries have gotten so insane. All this media money comes flowing into the athletic departments, and there’s only so many new strength training facilities they can build, and they’ve gotta put the money somewhere that’s not general education, so … let’s pay the coaches!

 

[t-noah]

Can we get a two sentence summary? That thing is way TFL;DR

1. ND's in no hurry to join a conference so long as they're not leaving so much money on the table they can't compete on the field, they still have access to the playoffs, and they have a home for their non-football sports.
2. The ACC GOR seems to have no way around it. Buying it out isn't economically feasible for the foreseeable future. Dissolving the conference seems unlikely as 8 teams would need a better landing spot. Another decade plus of making significantly less than the SEC and Big 10 could result in the ACC not having any programs that would interest either the Big 10 or SEC by the time they do become available.
3. The Big 10 isn't making another move until ND makes a decision. ND's not making a decision while the ACC is viable. See point #1. Repeat.

1. ND has options, and doesnt need to do anything right away.
2. Adding schools to the ACC does not break the GoR it is separate, So any school that wants to join the ACC would have to sign on to their current GoR through 2036, it could increase the per team money that way because they could renegotiate the amount, but more likely it would just add the amount of value for the team average meaning no real per team increase.
3. The ACC GoR is a huge barrier to leave. Exit fees are 3X yearly conference pay. So 100-120M, Plus GoR, meaning if a team were to buy it out it for say 2024-36 it would be an additional $300M on top of above exit fees. But there is no reason for the ACC to let anyone buy it out, similar to the Big 12, meaning they could do whatever they want with those teams games, and keep any and all money from them for that entire time. Doubtful any conference is willing to risk taking someone and not get any money for them pending a lawsuit, and doubtful a school is willing to risk having to pay minimum half a billion dollars to leave. Unlikely any movement to or from the ACC outside of an "alliance" Unless more than half the conference votes to leave. which means a lot of things have to get in line between 8+ teams and 2+ conferences minimum to actually make that work, and the way these are all done under the table that is not happening.

Lol. Sums this thread up perfectly.

Hey I tried...LOL

Perfect.

Hypothetically, if the Big 12 GOR/deal were to be to 2036, would ISU rather make a ton of money (likely via court) but potentially end up in American or MWC either now or closer to 2036, or trade that GOR option in exchange for ESPN/OUT (plus say KU) to make the the Big 12 leftovers a P3 setup in which we make slightly more through 2036 than we would have with OUT in the Big 12?

Now I'm confused again.

 

[2speedy1]

Perfect.

Now I'm confused again.

To be fair, most of the time I have no idea what WhoIsThis is talking about, most of the time I am not even sure he is commenting on the right thread.

I assumed Acylum was saying not only did 2 people comment/answer the question, but we both commented 3+ sentences for what was supposed to be a 2 sentence answer. I didn't see the first answer when I answered, and obviously went over 2 sentences.

But we are 240 pages in, on this in less than 2 weeks, so I could have missed a few things myself.

 

[t-noah]

To be fair, most of the time I have no idea what WhoIsThis is talking about, most of the time I am not even sure he is commenting on the right thread.

I assumed Acylum was saying not only did 2 people comment/answer the question, but we both commented 3+ sentences for what was supposed to be a 2 sentence answer. I didn't see the first answer when I answered, and obviously went over 2 sentences.

But we are 240 pages in, on this in less than 2 weeks, so I could have missed a few things myself.

I am glad someone like you is keeping track. And I have no idea WhoIsThis or WhoAmI !

Hopefully we will be able to laugh at all of this (over a virtual beer) next year.

 

[kcbob79clone]

Impact of USC/UCLA move to B1G on anticipated revenue per team and other conferences

 

[Cyclonepride]

Impact of USC/UCLA move to B1G on anticipated revenue per team and other conferences

If that's accurate, I find it really hard to believe that some PAC 12 schools are going to sign a new long term deal locking in for way less than they'd make in the Big 12

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Some Pac-12 fans are criticizing the analysis so I'm not sure if it's accurate, but yeah if that is accurate then the B12 will be able to add any Pac-12 school that it wants.

But given how wide the revenue gap is - and the fact that it's caused by the Pac-12 having lower-value schools - the Big 12 might be wise to reconsider who it wants to add. Would the best move be to take just two of the four corner schools plus Oregon and Washington? The two highest value in TV money are likely Arizona State and Utah. (That might explain the reports that Arizona and Colorado are more ready to jump now than are ASU and UU.) But maybe Arizona State and Colorado is a better play to get the Big 12 into more states. Then Wazzu, Oregon State, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, and Utah can rebuild a Pac-10 with Boise State, San Diego State, UNLV, and SMU. Good luck.

 

[LLCoolCY]

Impact of USC/UCLA move to B1G on anticipated revenue per team and other conferences

Interesting. I am sure there is a lot of projection and assumptions but either way it lines up with many think that there will be a P4 now and the PAC 12 will basically be a P5 level conference. Skimming the replies I think this is only the current conferences and doesn't include what would happen if the PAC Corner schools left for the B12. I assume that with the new resulting contract would bring the B12 up to the clear P3 conference.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

More ***** slinging...