REALISTIC expectations for 2023 football season

[SCarolinaCy]

Honestly, staff changes were coming whether or not Pollard called for them as you state. Now, as far as play-calling goes, hard to say. The TT game and the KSU game are the ones that stick out to me the most, when it felt like Campbell or Manning hit rock bottom from a play-calling standpoint. Sounds as if NS will have more control over the offense, although im not sure whether thats from a personnel aspect or play calls

Laughable how far the current regime has fallen, particularly vs TT, Kansas, TCU. First year unknowns have drifted into the Conference, with talented staff and willingness to make new portal additions, have made it look easy.

 

[Cyrealist]

but the conference championship last year was between two new OCs.

Exactly. It's a chess match and our guy was playing checkers.

 

[Cyrealist]

with talented staff and willingness to make new portal additions, have made it look easy.

It's never easy. Any of those teams could be in the bottom half of the conference this year.

 

[madguy30]

Laughable how far the current regime has fallen, particularly vs TT, Kansas, TCU. First year unknowns have drifted into the Conference, with talented staff and willingness to make new portal additions, have made it look easy.

TCU was in the national title game last year? That was the first time ISU had lost to them since 2018.

And KU and Tech have been on the upswing.

ISU's been pretty good but not that far off from bad records at the same time.

 

[mitchforcy]

Laughable how far the current regime has fallen, particularly vs TT, Kansas, TCU. First year unknowns have drifted into the Conference, with talented staff and willingness to make new portal additions, have made it look easy.

Our staff is willing to make new portal additions. To pretend we're playing with the same deck of cards(NIL) as those schools though is dumb.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

I've lost track but why is Texas so close to being unanimous?

The "starz" I suppose. Multiple top of their class QBs etc, though they can only play one at a time...

Whatever the case, they cannot be allowed to win the conference in their final season. I would bet against it happening, just based on their recent (past 13 years or so) history, but watch it happen just for one final kick to the Cyclone nut cup.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

I haven't seen enough of Rocco to know yet. With it being week 1, likely no to Kohl starting. You never know though. Kohl will see some playing time early on this year.

If Dekkers can't go right away, I hope they just go with some kind of combo of Rocco/Hughes at least thru the Iowa game. Let those 2 take their lumps, as they likely don't factor in greatly into the future of the program. Similar to what Campbell did with Zeb until he felt Brock was ready.

Insert JJ against Ohio, or hell maybe even let him start if the other two guys have struggled. I assume Dekkers comes back and gets the job right away, but will be on a short leash, so whichever of the 3 win the job in fall camp and first third of the season will be ready in the wings if Dekkers hasn't shown much improvement from last season

 

[werdnamanhill]

If Dekkers can't go right away, I hope they just go with some kind of combo of Rocco/Hughes at least thru the Iowa game. Let those 2 take their lumps, as they likely don't factor in greatly into the future of the program. Similar to what Campbell did with Zeb until he felt Brock was ready.

Insert JJ against Ohio, or hell maybe even let him start if the other two guys have struggled. I assume Dekkers comes back and gets the job right away, but will be on a short leash, so whichever of the 3 win the job in fall camp and first third of the season will be ready in the wings if Dekkers hasn't shown much improvement from last season

If Dekkers is even still around, that is.

 

[werdnamanhill]

Our staff is willing to make new portal additions. To pretend we're playing with the same deck of cards(NIL) as those schools though is dumb.

Yeah exactly. I mean if we are working with about 1/4 the NIL that Iowa has, I can't imagine our deficit to TCU, Baylor, BYU. Even schools like OSU, Tech, Cincy probably have considerably more than us. I'd imagine we are somewhere between 10-14th in the current big 12 for NIL standings.

Our staff has had a down year, and changes were made...I'm not sure characterizing it as "how far the current regime has fallen" is fair. Plenty of programs have down years. Seems premature.

 

[CycloneErik]

Yeah exactly. I mean if we are working with about 1/4 the NIL that Iowa has, I can't imagine our deficit to TCU, Baylor, BYU. Even schools like OSU, Tech, Cincy probably have considerably more than us. I'd imagine we are somewhere between 10-14th in the current big 12 for NIL standings.

Our staff has had a down year, and changes were made...I'm not sure characterizing it as "how far the current regime has fallen" is fair. Plenty of programs have down years. Seems premature.

Maybe premature, but not really. Staffs very rarely, if ever, recover from a down year like last years. It usually turns out that the down year was no accident.

Go ahead and use the tired examples of Ferentz and Snyder that don't fit our program's level of success. They aren't relevant, but they should appear half a dozen times after I post this.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

It's going to be interesting to see how the team handles things, as well as the new assistants.

We lost some big time players on defense - can we plug and play? Hopefully as that has been the trend.

We may be without some key starters - do we have the depth to handle it? Can we handle the adversity? It's hard to say.

We have the 4th toughest schedule in the entire country - for a rebuilding offense and some young faces on both sides of the ball, that's a tough task.

Does the offense look different or does it look largely the same (i.e. short yardage, ball control)? I've heard conflicting views from players early on with regards to how much seems to be changing, but it's incredibly early.

Can the OL look competent? I feel like this is a 2-3 year process rather than an overnight task, but can they at least look average?

Is the Big 12 down this year and can we take advantage in a few games? I do think it's down, the latter is the big question.

Can we win in the margins? We will always have a fine line between win/loss with the close game strategy and talent comparisons, and we have clearly lost in the margins the last few years. Can that change with new coaches?

This year could absolutely fall anywhere between 4-8 and 8-4. I'd probably go with 4 or 5 wins just because I think there is more youth and more questions than you'd like going into such a tough schedule.

I don't see 8-4 in range of outcomes, I think 6-6 is absolute best case scenario given the cloud hanging over the program right now. Even without the cloud, 7-5 seemed best case.

I do love what you said about the Big 12 being down. That is the most crucial factor in my opinion. If the conference really isn't much different from say 4-12, Iowa State will be able to steal wins here and there. The hope, I think, is that we aren't in fact only the 13th best team in the conference. That is a bit pessimistic but not impossible IMO.

 

[swessball]

Northwestern and Purdue?

Maybe premature, but not really. Staffs very rarely, if ever, recover from a down year like last years. It usually turns out that the down year was no accident.

Go ahead and use the tired examples of Ferentz and Snyder that don't fit our program's level of success. They aren't relevant, but they should appear half a dozen times after I post this.

Maybe premature, but not really. Staffs very rarely, if ever, recover from a down year like last years. It usually turns out that the down year was no accident.

Go ahead and use the tired examples of Ferentz and Snyder that don't fit our program's level of success. They aren't relevant, but they should appear half a dozen times after I post this.

Okay…how about Northwestern and Purdue both winning their division after having down years either the year or two years prior?

 

[werdnamanhill]

Maybe premature, but not really. Staffs very rarely, if ever, recover from a down year like last years. It usually turns out that the down year was no accident.

Go ahead and use the tired examples of Ferentz and Snyder that don't fit our program's level of success. They aren't relevant, but they should appear half a dozen times after I post this.

You don't think programs have down years and then improve again? I don't even know what to say to that except it's not true?

 

[Jer]

I don't see 8-4 in range of outcomes, I think 6-6 is absolute best case scenario given the cloud hanging over the program right now. Even without the cloud, 7-5 seemed best case.

I do love what you said about the Big 12 being down. That is the most crucial factor in my opinion. If the conference really isn't much different from say 4-12, Iowa State will be able to steal wins here and there. The hope, I think, is that we aren't in fact only the 13th best team in the conference. That is a bit pessimistic but not impossible IMO.

I would agree that I don't currently see more than 7, but saying 4-8 to 8-4 looked better, lol.

If the league is down, like I anticipate, there is some hope to get a few more that are "tossups". Unfortunately with our schedule, there are fewer anticipated "tossups" than I'd like. I have to put a floor of 4 wins as we shouldn't expect rebuilding years to even be that bad. But I'd put a realistic ceiling at 7 wins given the youth, unknowns, and difficult schedule.

 

[CycloneErik]

You don't think programs have down years and then improve again? I don't even know what to say to that except it's not true?

I've gone into enough detail before to show that 3-4 win years don't lead to bouncing back.
Campbell gets his shot to be the one to do it. Maybe he does.

 

[swessball]

I've gone into enough detail before to show that 3-4 win years don't lead to bouncing back.
Campbell gets his shot to be the one to do it. Maybe he does.

Jeff Brohm and Pat Fitzgerald both say “Hi”. Maybe you’ll find a reason to discredit those examples when comparing them to Campbell.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

That's kind of the key. We don't know if it was Manning calling dumb short crosses in front of the sticks and shotgun handoffs on short yardage, or if it was Campbell forcing him to do it. Or I guess if the talent was so bad that that was the only thing we could do. Either way, Campbell is now tied to NS and Clanton. Either it works or we continue to go downhill and we're looking for a new coach in a few years. They've dug themselves a pretty big hole and it won't be easy to get out of it.

I echo a lot of this. In a program like ISU, a down or rebuilding year is not unusual. In fact it is expected. The issues with last season though is that they are systemic of Campbell's tenure. Awful special teams, leaky offensive line play, iffy offensive scheming and playcalling, and not enough talent in the WR room. Some coaching changes happened and may address most if not all of these issues. Let's hope they do. Otherwise, the problem might be the elephant in the room that nobody wants to address publicly (yet).

 

[CycloneErik]

Jeff Brohm and Pat Fitzgerald both say “Hi”. Maybe you’ll find a reason to discredit those examples when comparing them to Campbell.

Maybe. Fitzgerald has had greater success than Campbell, which is the point I've correctly made for years.
Campbell gets his shot to prove that wrong. Not sure what more you can ask for than that.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

Ceiling for this team seems like 6 wins.

Absolutely.

 

[swessball]

You don't think programs have down years and then improve again? I don't even know what to say to that except it's not true

Maybe. Fitzgerald has had greater success than Campbell, which is the point I've correctly made for years.
Campbell gets his shot to prove that wrong. Not sure what more you can ask for than that

Keep moving those goal posts. You said turnarounds after bad years rarely, if ever, happen for programs. They do. You've been given multiple examples of similar programs to Iowa State doing it.

P.S. Campbell and Fitz have the same winning percentage at their current schools.