The real question is: What does this person think will happen?
20% chance on Monday and 20% chance on Tuesday.
Weather Thread 1/30-2/2: Possible Major Storm
- Thread starter Iastfan112
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20% chance on Monday and 20% chance on Tuesday.
Looks as if the latest model runs are putting the storm to track to the South and East with heaviest snow SE corner of the state.
Hopefully it stays that way and we'll only get a few inches of snow.
What are the weather guru's thoughts on the latest model runs?
Hopefully it stays that way and we'll only get a few inches of snow.
What are the weather guru's thoughts on the latest model runs?
Every model is showing WAA snows, and reasonable amounts of snow with them, probably 3-6 inches over a wide swath of the state Monday and Tuesday. As for main storm its too early to tell, some models give a decent hit to the state others pull too far south. Lot of variables left to decide that the models don't have a great handle on. Strength of the pieces of energy in the pacific won't be nailed down till they come on shore tomorrow, have fast the northern and southern streams move(should be known by Monday morning what this is looking like) and how much, if any, energy the southern stream leaves behind(this is the last variable to be know, probably Monday night).
The Big Storm is interesting, but it looks like it's trending southeast, which with the current pattern we're in seems about right. La Nina has really taken hold of the area especially over the last month.
What I think will actually give us more snow will be this first wave coming in from the north Sunday Night into Monday (for me) a little later for central IA before the big bad boy forms.
A huge snow growth zone looks to be in place. We'll be in the left entrance region of the jet streak meaning we'll have the lift. While the whole system won't look very organized from a cyclonegenesis point of view it has the potential to bring a few inches. I'm gonna put about 4-7" in my area (SE MN/ No IA) for the 24 hour period from Sunday night to Monday night. Central Iowa may be similar, just a tad bit later in time.
I really don't expect central IA to see much out of the large system on Tuesday... Though, may have to look out for blowing snow as the winds look like they'll be pretty strong.
Just my take.
What I think will actually give us more snow will be this first wave coming in from the north Sunday Night into Monday (for me) a little later for central IA before the big bad boy forms.
A huge snow growth zone looks to be in place. We'll be in the left entrance region of the jet streak meaning we'll have the lift. While the whole system won't look very organized from a cyclonegenesis point of view it has the potential to bring a few inches. I'm gonna put about 4-7" in my area (SE MN/ No IA) for the 24 hour period from Sunday night to Monday night. Central Iowa may be similar, just a tad bit later in time.
I really don't expect central IA to see much out of the large system on Tuesday... Though, may have to look out for blowing snow as the winds look like they'll be pretty strong.
Just my take.
Winter Storm Watches are up. One for northern Iowa Sunday night to Tuesday night.
Separate one for Missouri all the way up to the Iowa border in S. Central Iowa, Monda morning through Wednesday morning.
Nothing as far as watch/adv yet for DM/Ames, really most of central Iowa, but at least a little accumulating snow and wind getting pretty likely at this point. Main system still looking to stay south/east.
Separate one for Missouri all the way up to the Iowa border in S. Central Iowa, Monda morning through Wednesday morning.
Nothing as far as watch/adv yet for DM/Ames, really most of central Iowa, but at least a little accumulating snow and wind getting pretty likely at this point. Main system still looking to stay south/east.
I think your being too negative for at least the southern part of Central Iowa, the Euro is still spiting out .75 inches in DSM, GFS has trended slightly north for every run and the ensembles are located even farther north the OP run. SREF(it is an experimental model so I'll I don't hold it in as high of esteem) smacks Iowa with good snows. NAM has looked like it has potentially looked great as well other than todays 18z run(if it shows a similar solution tonight on the 00z I'll lend it more credence). GEM did go much farther SE this afternoon but it has hardly any support from ensembles.
That said, even the higher snow models have the Des Moines area on the northern and western fringe it wouldn't take much of a shift to put the area out of the snows. Really we're still a little over 24 hours away from having a reasonably solid idea on the details of the track.
Here in NW Arkansas we are under a winter storm watch, went from ice/snow to heavy rain on Tuesday back to snow and ice.
Right on, I have a room @ the Pattee & bought some new studded tires for our Fandango mtn tandem... I hadnt ridden with studs before today (I rode around the driveway on ice & they gripped incredibly).. I'm anxious to see what presents its self but realistically I just need to bring enough beer for the stops on the way up n back....
BTW, a real fun band, Crooked Mile is playing Sat night @ the Pattee... check them out if you like alt 60s, 70s & 80s rock tunes
At least you guys are just getting snow. I'm supposed to get sleet which will then get covered by snow. Fun stuff down here in the land where people have trouble driving without hitting other cars even when it is nice out. Oh well, at least I'll have classes cancelled for a few days.
Just fantastic, I fly out of DSM on wed morning. Rescheduled trip because it was canceled last week because of snow on the east coast.
What does Negative mean?
NAM keeps the low track well SE and has since the storm has been in few (3 runs), Canadian as well. ECMWF, I feel is an outlier by being the one with the furthest north solution. I'm not sold on the northerly low track.
Southern, especially SE Iowa do have a chance of seeing some precip from the big system on Tuesday, but by far the heaviest will be well southeast of the area. And I don't see 3/4" liquid on Tuesday from the storm in question in DSM.
But, I agree the next 24 hours will paint the best picture on the low track. I expect it to take a southerly route. The first wave that moves through Monday is what I find the most interesting.
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The real question is: What does this person think will happen?
Where exactly did you find that picture? That's not even one that we have...
