Weather Thread 1/30-2/2: Possible Major Storm

FDWxMan

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Jan 31, 2009
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Good job on the map and it seems to go with with the 10-16 total inches that the NWS is saying for those in the Winter Storm Watch.

Of note, The local mets all seem to be down playing the total storm amounts. Channel 13 via KXNO is saying 8-9 total inches and Channel 5 on their website is saying 7-11 inches and Jason Parkin on his independent website is going with 7-11 inches for the metro..

I have some concerns about the convective snow (thundersnow) to the SE.

If big time convection gets going in SE Iowa to St. Louis that will rob moisture from central Iowa and could significantly cut down DSM totals. Of course, the areas that see that convection should very easily hit 10-16. But that should be SE of the Metro.

Even if thunderstorms get really crazy farther south, that could have an impact. Still settling in on 7-10 for DSM at this point
 
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garn91

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Jun 1, 2006
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I have some concerns about the convective snow (thundersnow) to the SE.

If big time convection gets going in SE Iowa to St. Louis that will rob moisture from central Iowa and could significantly cut down DSM totals.

Will that sucks.
 

Trainer

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Oct 20, 2009
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Reminds me of last year. Snappy's delivery for a 30 pack and no class the next day! Great night.
 

Trice

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Apr 1, 2010
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I have some concerns about the convective snow (thundersnow) to the SE.

If big time convection gets going in SE Iowa to St. Louis that will rob moisture from central Iowa and could significantly cut down DSM totals. Of course, the areas that see that convection should very easily hit 10-16. But that should be SE of the Metro.

Even if thunderstorms get really crazy farther south, that could have an impact. Still settling in on 7-10 for DSM at this point

For whatever it's worth, as a central Iowan I wouldn't feel like I was getting "robbed" of anything.
 
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mj4cy

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Mar 28, 2006
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Bring on the snow. I've only gotten to use my brand new blower twice this winter.
 

c.y.c.l.o.n.e.s

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Feb 21, 2007
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To the weather gurus. Do you think this will turn into a Blizzard warning? I would think that 6+ inches of snow plus high winds plus plummeting temps would equal something close to a blizzard.
 

chuckd4735

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As a snow enthusiast, what are the chances of this storm shifting north and dumping on central Iowa at this point? I want what Chicago is forecasted to get!

Also, I see both Chicago and Millwaukee areas have a Blizzard Watch...what are we looking at as far as wind?
 

garn91

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Jun 1, 2006
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As a snow enthusiast, what are the chances of this storm shifting north and dumping on central Iowa at this point? I want what Chicago is forecasted to get!

Also, I see both Chicago and Millwaukee areas have a Blizzard Watch...what are we looking at as far as wind?

From the DSM NWS forecast discussion this morning. Winds have to be sustained at 35MPH or greater for a Blizzard Warning.

National Weather Service Text Product Display

THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND MODIFIED IN TIME TO
ACCOUNT FOR BEST THREAT AREA AND TO NARROW IN ON TIMING OF
GREATEST THREAT. TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM THE STORM SHOULD RANGE FROM
ABOUT 6 INCHES ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE WATCH TO 12 TO 16 INCHES
NEAR BLOOMFIELD AND OTM. THIS WILL BE A VERY DANGEROUS AND
CRIPPLING STORM GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND WINDS WITH TRAVEL
BECOMING DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE EAST OF A TAMA-DES
MOINES-BEDFORD LINE. DRIFTS WILL BE SEVERAL FEET DEEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE 20S BELOW ZERO. IF
WINDS SHOW ANY TENDENCY TO BE HIGHER WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...A
BLIZZARDWATCH OR WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED.
 

c.y.c.l.o.n.e.s

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Feb 21, 2007
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Even level-headed weather geeks are freaking out about this one. They are talking 20-30 inches in Chicago. Much of eastern Iowa might get 12-16 inches. Stuff could change in the next 24 hours, but this is looking to be a huge one.

I was watching WGN last night. They said that if this storm goes as predicted, it will be the worst winter storm that they have seen since 1999. Also said that the airlines have been offering to let people change their flight plans for free in order to get where they need to go before the storm. They expect complete chaos this week with tons of flight cancelations. Not just in Chicago but all over the northeast.
 

MNCYWX

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Feb 7, 2010
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The second wave (Big Storm) is trending Southeast. Don't get too excited for too much extra snow outside this first wave in Central Iowa. Looks like DSM will be riding near the NW fringe of the snow shield. S, SE, E IA will still be fun and I could see getting 6-12 in. SE of a line from about Chariton, IA to Davenport. Places like Columbia, MO and St. Louis look like they are just gonna get walloped.

Everyone will see some very strong winds Tomorrow and Wednesday. Blowing and Drifting snow will be a big problem. Stay safe everyone.

Towards my neck of the woods in S MN and N IA, we'll get about 4-7" by tomorrow morning from this first wave of snow moving through. Little to none from the big storm passing to the SE.
 

Ames

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I just checked my phone and it shows a prediction of 2.5" now. I like those numbers better.
 

MNCYWX

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To the weather gurus. Do you think this will turn into a Blizzard warning? I would think that 6+ inches of snow plus high winds plus plummeting temps would equal something close to a blizzard.


Blizzard criteria actually has nothing to do with the amount of snow you see. Only criteria is winds reaching 35 mph for 3+hrs creating blowing snow reducing visibilities under 1/4 mile.

Earlier this winter there were 4 counties in northern Iowa that were in a blizzard warning... they only saw about 1/2 to 1 inch of snow the entire day.

To answer your question. I could see a blizzard warning in the future.
 

Trice

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Apr 1, 2010
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The second wave (Big Storm) is trending Southeast. Don't get too excited for too much extra snow outside this first wave in Central Iowa. Looks like DSM will be riding near the NW fringe of the snow shield. S, SE, E IA will still be fun and I could see getting 6-12 in. SE of a line from about Chariton, IA to Davenport. Places like Columbia, MO and St. Louis look like they are just gonna get walloped.

Everyone will see some very strong winds Tomorrow and Wednesday. Blowing and Drifting snow will be a big problem. Stay safe everyone.

Towards my neck of the woods in S MN and N IA, we'll get about 4-7" by tomorrow morning from this first wave of snow moving through. Little to none from the big storm passing to the SE.

So you expect forecasted snowfall totals for central Iowa to be lowered soon? Or are you saying the ~10" will hold and not to expect more?
 

MNCYWX

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Feb 7, 2010
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I have some concerns about the convective snow (thundersnow) to the SE.

If big time convection gets going in SE Iowa to St. Louis that will rob moisture from central Iowa and could significantly cut down DSM totals. Of course, the areas that see that convection should very easily hit 10-16. But that should be SE of the Metro.

Even if thunderstorms get really crazy farther south, that could have an impact. Still settling in on 7-10 for DSM at this point

I'd say about 5-8" total for both the first wave of snow moving in today and the big storm Tuesday/Wednesday... and that still may be too high.
 
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MNCYWX

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Feb 7, 2010
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So you expect forecasted snowfall totals for central Iowa to be lowered soon? Or are you saying the ~10" will hold and not to expect more?


If I was working in the metro right now. My totals would be dropped immediately.
 

Iastfan112

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Apr 14, 2006
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If I was working in the metro right now. My totals would be dropped immediately.

I wouldn't Euro trended up on its last run, GGEM and Ukie were both favorable last night for big snows as well, if they move SE as well then perhaps. GFS is a reasonable solution, the NAM however has definitely looked like its dealing with convective feedback on the models thus making the system a bit weaker than it should. What the those first 3 models show between now and noonish should definitely be considered before jumping on the significantly lower snow total train. Now realistically everyone will see totals lowered in the metro area because most stations do their modeling off of the US products.
 
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