Weather Thread 1/30-2/2: Possible Major Storm

[Trice]

The NWS likely won't change anything in those until the 4pm updates.

I need some advice from the frequent fliers out there. I don't fly that often and I've never once encountered a possible weather-related problem. But I have a flight leaving DSM at 2:50 p.m. on Thursday; it's a direct flight bound for Phoenix. US Airways has already issued an advisory saying they are relaxing change-fee policies for affected flights/cities through the night of the 3rd.

So I guess my question is, if this is supposed to end early Wednesday morning is there a good chance my flight will still go on as scheduled? I really don't know much about how long airports typically shut down in these circumstances. Any advice would be appreciated.

EDITED to include flight destination.

 

[1100011CS]

Definition of ironic. Somone from Marshalltown calling another town in Iowa a crap hole.

touche

 

[Iastfan112]

I need some advice from the frequent fliers out there. I don't fly that often and I've never once encountered a possible weather-related problem. But I have a flight leaving DSM at 2:50 p.m. on Thursday. US Airways has already issued an advisory saying they are relaxing change-fee policies for affected flights/cities through the night of the 3rd.

So I guess my question is, if this is supposed to end early Wednesday morning is there a good chance my flight will still go on as scheduled? I really don't know much about how long airports typically shut down in these circumstances. Any advice would be appreciated.

Huge question is where are you going and if you have a layover where at?

 

[Trice]

Huge question is where are you going and if you have a layover where at?

Direct flight to Phoenix.

 

[bawbie]

Any gurus that can give me an update on Cedar Rapids?

Not a guru, just a wannabe, but here's my take: Light snow off and on from now until Tuesday afternoon, a couple inches worth. Then the wind picks up and heavy snow falls Tuesday evening and overnight, they are currently predicting 8-14 inches during this period. The wind stays and it gets really cold Wednesday night.

CR is on the boundary of the heavy stuff, where we could see a lot of changes to the forecast if the storm moves a little bit. If the storm moves further north, we could end up in the 10-15" range. If it moves south and we get into the dry air, maybe more like 3-6".

 

[Cloned92]

Direct flight to Phoenix.

You will be fine snow will wrap up by early wednesday morning. That leaves an entire day for the airport to clear the snow. Also, since you aren't going to chicago or any of the areas that will be hard hit, your flight should be fine.

 

[FDWxMan]

Direct flight to Phoenix.

I would imagine if your flight is originating from DSM on Thursday afternoon, you should be just fine flying to Phoenix.

 

[vortex]

It might take a little longer to saturate the lower levels than the models are indicating, however strong WAA takes over on Tues. The wind fields are impressive and as things mix down to the surface visibilities will go down hill in a hurry. If you buy the NAM central Iowa could see up to a foot of snow. SE Iowa looks to be the bulls eye for the most snow. I get the feeling we will see more like four to six inches in central Iowa, but what ever the amount, it is going to blow around.

 

[garn91]

Updated as of 12:14.

Storm Summary: Officials Say 'Leave Work Early' - Des Moines News Story - KCCI Des Moines

Law enforcement officials are asking Iowans to leave work early Monday and head home before conditions get too bad this afternoon.

Storm Summary
Freezing drizzle changes over to snow
Two waves of snow: this afternoon, Tuesday afternoon
PM Commute: Expect 1-2 inches by evening
Expect 9-10 inches total by Wed. morning

A massive winter storm just moving in will switch from freezing drizzle to snow early afternoon, part of a two wave punch of snow this afternoon and then again Tuesday afternoon.

By the Monday PM commute, snow will have already been falling for a couple hours. Totals by rush hour will be around 1 inch or less.

Roads in western Iowa are already partially to completely snow and ice covered as of noon. Interstate 80 in Dallas County was also reported as completely ice covered and more than 20 crashes were reported...view latest report.

Snow will continue overnight across Iowa with 3-5 inches expected by the Tuesday AM commute. Some clearing is expected Tuesday morning before the second wave of snow hits Tuesday afternoon.

The second wave will bring snow totals in Des Moines to near 9 inches. Much higher totals are expected in southeastern Iowa, with Ottumwa seeing 17 inches and the Quad Cities 18 inches.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Updated as of 12:14.

Storm Summary: Officials Say 'Leave Work Early' - Des Moines News Story - KCCI Des Moines

.......printing started now.......just need to get this on the boss' desk without being seen.......

 

[ISUFan22]

Should be "fun". But then again, no one aught to be shocked - we do live in Iowa and it's not exactly July...

 

[Iastfan112]

According to the latest foreign models along a Des Moines- Waterloo- Dubuque line still is pegged for a foot of snow. Euro has highest verification rates of all the models and with the NAM dealing with convective feedback issues probably messing with its solution I tend to side more with the Euro/GGEM/UKmet vs the GFS/NAM.

 

[garn91]

According to the latest foreign models along a Des Moines- Waterloo- Dubuque line still is pegged for a foot of snow. Euro has highest verification rates of all the models and with the NAM dealing with convective feedback issues probably messing with its solution I tend to side more with the Euro/GGEM/UKmet vs the GFS/NAM.

The latest QPF that came out within the hour for DSM was 1.11", what does that translate to for snow?

 

[brianhos]

Here is a weather cam from the Des Moines area...is it really this bad in Des Moines? I have never seen ice on the camera before:

http://images.ibsys.com/des/images/weather/auto/towercam4_640x480.jpg?3179000656

I was just out in WDM for lunch, the roads are wet and it is just spitting snow/sleet. Travel is not an issue right now.

 

[Iastfan112]

The latest QPF that came out within the hour for DSM was 1.11", what does that translate to for snow?

I'd generally figure that we'll get 12-15-1 ratios for the storm on the whole. I've seen suggestions that it may go higher but I find it hard to ever predict more than 15-1 for a storm in its entirety, just need too many things to go right to get that sort of ratios. So if the Euro exactly was right that would be 13-16.5 inches.

 

[brianhos]

I need some advice from the frequent fliers out there. I don't fly that often and I've never once encountered a possible weather-related problem. But I have a flight leaving DSM at 2:50 p.m. on Thursday; it's a direct flight bound for Phoenix. US Airways has already issued an advisory saying they are relaxing change-fee policies for affected flights/cities through the night of the 3rd.

So I guess my question is, if this is supposed to end early Wednesday morning is there a good chance my flight will still go on as scheduled? I really don't know much about how long airports typically shut down in these circumstances. Any advice would be appreciated.

EDITED to include flight destination.

On Thurs? You will be fine. DSM does a great job of keeping things moving in the snow.

I have a flight out Wed at 7am. Of course that is probably not going to happen.

 

[Wesley]

I would imagine if your flight is originating from DSM on Thursday afternoon, you should be just fine flying to Phoenix.

He should beat the next weekend storm out.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

Any other snowmobilers like me getting excited?

 

[cyfanatic]

Should I interpret the lack of discussion (has lessened quite a bit) as a sign that everyone is busy preparing for the "big" storm or that it might be fizzling out?

 

[Iastfan112]

Discussion tends to peak in the morning and evening for weather stuff, the main model runs come out between 8am and 12pm and 8pm and 12 am. Only thing that really breaks the afternoon lull is the fact that NWS offices release AFDs in that time period.