PREDICTIONS: Iowa State @ Iowa
- Thread starter ChrisMWilliams
- Start date
I haven't seen this much confidence in an ISU victory since our last trip to Boulder.
Hawks - 23
Clones - 20
Hawks - 23
Clones - 20
The 'we havent won there in forever' we keep hearing this year is a bit overstated. Sure, we haven't won there the last 4 tries, but when you look back at the final sagarin ratings, we also really weren't on the same level as iowa and likely would've lost at home.
2004- Iowa was a much better team that year (we finished #52 by sagarin ratings rank that year, iowa finished #12). Yet we still only lost 17-10
2006- Mac's last year. We would've been lucky to beat some of the better high school teams that year. Iowa finished about 40 spots ahead of us in the sagarin rankings, so again, looking back they look like a heavy favorite with or without home field advantage
2008- Chizik's second year. Again, we were damn lucky to beat anyone that year. Iowa finished nearly 100(!) spots better than us in the final sagarin rankings.
2010- Iowa finished 40 spots ahead this year. Should it have been the beating it was? No. But again, major favorite.
Now look at say... last year. We finished 2 spots above them. We also barely beat them. That seems about right.
The last time we beat them in IC, we had a team that ultimately finished 30 spots away, but during the first half of the season was playing like a much better team than the second half. It wasn't nearly as much of an upset as it would've been for us to win in any year since. The time before that (2000), we finished a good deal above them.
The moral of this long, winding story? Its not necessarily being in kinnick that has killed us.... its been that iowa was just that much better of a team those years (and often, it was just a matter of us really sucking). The same story can hold for wins in JTS too... we tended to be much closer, or ahead of iowa those years. It wasn't some magical 'superbowl', but merely a result playing out that was generally within expectations based on results the rest of the year.
Given that we are better this year, and i believe better than iowa (as i think iowa is down a bit and us up a bit), i don't think we need to fear kinnick as much as some think we do. If we have the better team, it will show on saturday.
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I'll stick with a 3-point ISU win — possibly with another 7 or 10 points squandered.
This is the first time in years that I think ISU should beat Iowa — plenty of "could" games over the years.
In some ways, I almost prefer under confidence with these predictions. :unsure:
This is the first time in years that I think ISU should beat Iowa — plenty of "could" games over the years.
In some ways, I almost prefer under confidence with these predictions. :unsure:
Ok we win 10,000 to -2, the NCAA says they had such a bad performance they award Iowa negative points for the first time ever.
Difference being that in 2010 people were 100% banking on Colorado being bad and ISU being in must-win mode. I think this confidence stems mostly from liking how our team looks this year. I trust the latter a lot more.
Valid points about venue and relative strength of teams.
Flipside of that, too, games played at JTS have been kinder to ISU, but many times for similar reasons during past decade. In '03, ISU was clearly a far worse team. '05, ISU turned out at least marginally better than Iowa. '07 was probably a flukish reversal of the '77 game. Last season was tight. '09, Iowa was a superior team.
Flipside of that, too, games played at JTS have been kinder to ISU, but many times for similar reasons during past decade. In '03, ISU was clearly a far worse team. '05, ISU turned out at least marginally better than Iowa. '07 was probably a flukish reversal of the '77 game. Last season was tight. '09, Iowa was a superior team.
2008 was Chiz's second year and we were 2-0 going into that year's game after winning 44-17 over SDSU and 48-28 over Kent St. This entire site was confident that we'd go into Kinnick and win based on our superior Big 12 speed and athleticism.
Of course, this game was wet and sloppy, but we were tied 3-3 in the 4th. Offense moved the ball all day we were like 0/4 in the red zone.
This game was the first of three straight heartbreakers (also UNLV and KU) and we never won again for the rest of the year. Had the Iowa game turned out differently, maybe that 2008 team has confidence to win some of their remaining closer games (UNLV, KU, A&M, KSU) and that season turns out drastically different.
A typo on my part about his second year.
The site may have been confident, but ultimately end of season ratings don't prove it out. 2-0 vs teams that finished 130 or lower doesn't really say anything.
Iowa finished 22, we finished 114. I dont know how much those games wouldve changed that rating, but at the same time, i dont know if you can put all 4 of those close games up to just 'not having confidence'. We nearly went out and beat a #16 kansas team 2 weeks later. That seems like some confidence. The fact is we had a lot of points hung on us that year. (in fact, iowa hanging the least on us of any other remaining team (not counting the fist 2 noncon patsies) by a 2 score margin). I dont think the result of the iowa game would've changed that all that much.
At the same time, the fact that we were 3-3 in the fourth says something about how kinnick isn't all that fearsome. Even a team that finished that much higher than ours didn't destroy us that day.
I... I just don't have a good feeling about this one.
I know, everything on paper says we should win this with some room to feel comfortable. We beat a better opponent than Iowa did, and did so more convincingly.
But I just don't get a good feeling about this one.
Iowa 35 - Iowa State 31
I know, everything on paper says we should win this with some room to feel comfortable. We beat a better opponent than Iowa did, and did so more convincingly.
But I just don't get a good feeling about this one.
Iowa 35 - Iowa State 31
CycloneErik
Well-Known Member
