***Official Big 12 Expansion Thread '16***

[acgclone]

Pac 12 has not extended either, so don't lump them in with SEC, ACC and Big Ten

They are clearly stronger than the B12 on a number of fronts.

-Their teams are geographically not a good fit for joining the B1G/SEC/ACC
-Much stronger academics
-A history of adding teams vs losing key teams

The B12 is the clear weak hand now that it's been determined that OU and Texas won't extend GOR.

 

[acgclone]

And Big Ten only extended for six years through 2023...

You don't need to extend when you're the one setting the pace financially. GOR is for adding stability to the more unstable P5 conferences like the B12, P12 and ACC.

 

[Judoka]

The lack of GOR extension isn't great news but the impact won't become apparent until at least 2021. So no reason to spend the next five years stressing about it. And by then we'll know if the Pac-12 Network has become successful and if the ACC network has gotten of the ground.

 

[isu81]

They are clearly stronger than the B12 on a number of fronts.

-Their teams are geographically not a good fit for joining the B1G/SEC/ACC
-Much stronger academics
-A history of adding teams vs losing key teams

The B12 is the clear weak hand now that it's been determined that OU and Texas won't extend GOR.

I would add that the PAC 12 has 8 of the country's 30 largest TV markets. The B12 has 2 in Houston and DFW. Most of our conference is fly-over territory.

http://www.stationindex.com/tv/tv-markets

 

[colbycheese]

I'm not saying it would happen in the next ten years; what I'm saying is I wouldn't be surprised if the B1G would rather save those last two spots until Notre Dame was ready. What if the playoff doesn't expand? What if the super conferences divorce the NCAA?

Notre Dame is not joining any conference in Football. Not the Big Ten, not the ACC. There is no reason for them to ever do so. The reason went out the door when the CFP said that you don't have to win a conference to be eligible. They are not going to change that. Plus, the CFP will expand to 8 teams within the next 10 years. At that point, there will be a 0.00001% chance that Notre Dame will join a conference.

Pitt is bound by the GOR. Big Ten is not going to invite any school bound by a GOR because it weakens their own GOR. The only conference that will try to invite any schools bound by a GOR would be the SEC because they don't have one. Why would anyone who has a GOR try to weaken their own GOR? That is stupid.

I know it is fun to make up realignment scenarios, but they have to be based in reality, not fiction. This is more fiction that Iowa State ever going to the Big Ten and I think Iowa State going to the Big Ten has about a 1% chance.

FYI, should Notre Dame ever decide to join a conference, they are contractually obligated to join the ACC.

 

[Judoka]

I would add that the PAC 12 has 8 of the country's 30 largest TV markets. The B12 has 2 in Houston and DFW. Most of our conference is fly-over territory.

http://www.stationindex.com/tv/tv-markets

They have large markets that don't care much about college sports.

 

[CarrollCyclone]

SIAP

http://newsok.com/blame-ou-and-texas-for-big-12-instability/article/5521024

Blame OU and Texas for Big 12 instability - Daily Oklahoman

 

[cyclonepower]

https://twitter.com/flugempire

 

[3GenClone]

https://twitter.com/flugempire

How in the world is a Gopher fan the source of knowledge from goings on at OU?

 

[fsanford]

https://twitter.com/flugempire

So that is a crap load of tweets, can someone summarize? I see basically OU and UT, cannot leave unless other schools have a landing spot and networks will need to work out something?

 

[KnappShack]

They have large markets that don't care much about college sports.

Well a million more people watched the USC game than the ISU v. Baylor game.

Probably apples to oranges because of the channel and time slot too

 

[3GenClone]

So that is a crap load of tweets, can someone summarize? I see basically OU and UT, cannot leave unless other schools have a landing spot and networks will need to work out something?

The most recent tweet is probably the most poignant, assuming any of this is accurate:



So what this guy is saying is that there is a "relief plan" being negotiated with the understanding that all parties will dissolve the current GOR in 2 years. The relief plan has two facets:



So the idea is OU and UT leave, but the remaining schools would stay in the Big 12, because this guy is saying no other conference wants to take on the 8 remaining schools. A conference network would be created (probably what we are making now), P5 status remains (I don't know how that would be possible without UT and OU) and a new GOR would be created that runs through 2035. Sounds great to me. Sounds terrible for the networks and doesn't seem practical.

 

[CYCLNST8]

So that is a crap load of tweets, can someone summarize? I see basically OU and UT, cannot leave unless other schools have a landing spot and networks will need to work out something?

Big 12 schools not named Texas or OU are willing to let them leave free of charge in the next 24 months in exchange for extending the current GOR for another ten years. Payout will be increased for new members, but not pro rata.

That's how I understood it anyways.

 

[fsanford]

The most recent tweet is probably the most poignant, assuming any of this is accurate:



So what this guy is saying is that there is a "relief plan" being negotiated with the understanding that all parties will dissolve the current GOR in 2 years. The relief plan has two facets:



So the idea is OU and UT leave, but the remaining schools would stay in the Big 12, because this guy is saying no other conference wants to take on the 8 remaining schools. A conference network would be created (probably what we are making now), P5 status remains (I don't know how that would be possible without UT and OU) and a new GOR would be created that runs through 2035. Sounds great to me. Sounds terrible for the networks and doesn't seem practical.

Thanks appreciate all the translation.

I think the other 8 would sue the pants off OU/UT, networks for breaking the agreement, and then this gets congress involved, they start talking about non profit status etc

Guess will see what happens, but the other schools will not take this lying down.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Thanks appreciate all the translation.

I think the other 8 would sue the pants off OU/UT, networks for breaking the agreement, and then this gets congress involved, they start talking about non profit status etc

Guess will see what happens, but the other schools will not take this lying down.

I imagine the idea is more of an acknowledgement that OU and UT will leave in 2025 regardless, so letting them leave instead in 2020 in exchange for getting support from the networks through 2035 could be smart.

Also I find it very interesting that the random Twitter account lumps KU in with OU and UT. That makes no sense to me. Again I am reminded that this is a random Twitter account.

 

[Judoka]

https://twitter.com/flugempire

Lol, are you really just posting a no context link to a random gopher fan's twitter account because they are tweeting a bunch as if they are in the know? Come the **** on.

 

[isucy86]

How in the world is a Gopher fan the source of knowledge from goings on at OU?

Not sure how a "relief plan" makes any sense to Big12 schools other than Texas & OU. The current Big12 contract represents the highest revenue option for schools like ISU, KSU, etc that wouldn't be invited to join the SEC or Big10. The ACC and Pac12 might seem more stable, but their TV Rights deals are worth less than the Big12 TV contract.

IMO there is no rush for realignment to occur by either P5 schools or the TV Networks. Money drives realignment and the TV Rights environment is uncetain right now. We see cord cutting, potential FCC changes impacting Satelite/Cable revenue streams and we may be seeing a downturn in college/NFL viewership because of oversaturation.

The first test will be ESPN's ability to launch the ACC linear Network in 2019. Followed by the Big10 TV negotiations, which may include scenarios with increased TV rights value if UT, OU, etc would be added.

 

[LivntheCyLife]

The most recent tweet is probably the most poignant, assuming any of this is accurate:



So what this guy is saying is that there is a "relief plan" being negotiated with the understanding that all parties will dissolve the current GOR in 2 years. The relief plan has two facets:



So the idea is OU and UT leave, but the remaining schools would stay in the Big 12, because this guy is saying no other conference wants to take on the 8 remaining schools. A conference network would be created (probably what we are making now), P5 status remains (I don't know how that would be possible without UT and OU) and a new GOR would be created that runs through 2035. Sounds great to me. Sounds terrible for the networks and doesn't seem practical.

I read it differently. The other P5 don't want 8 of the 10 Big 12 schools. Which would be the 8 votes needed to dissolve the conference. Rather, as many as possible will negotiate a P5 spot. The leftovers will get a buyout of the current GOR from the schools that are leaving that guarantees money through 2035. Doesn't say how many will get P5 spots but does say this:

 

[KnappShack]

I truly hate the business of college athletics

 

[3GenClone]

The first test will be ESPN's ability to launch the ACC linear Network in 2019. Followed by the Big10 TV negotiations, which may include scenarios with increased TV rights value if UT, OU, etc would be added.

That deal is up for renewal in 2023, but the Big 12 GOR will still run through 2025. That Big 10 deal is going to be multi-year and worth BILLIONS of dollars. Would TV partners really be up for renegotiating new TV contracts 2 years later in order to add 2 (or more) Big 12 schools? The language would also be spelled out for any potential expansion candidates on what would happen if they were to join the Big 10 (such as, unequal distribution until so many years in the league) - would that really sit well in Austin?

Best case scenario is still the same - demand an extension on the current GOR and just stay with it until it expires.