I understand where you are coming from, but NW probably said the same thing last week. I think ISU is a better team, but when its floating around a 4-7 point advantage for much of the second half, it only takes 1 turnover, defensive breakdown, etc. to be behind against a team that everyone expects you to beat relatively easily.
Take Clemson last week vs Georgia Southern. Clemson could've won by 80, the srpead was only 34 and Ga Southern covered. We know Clemson didn't show their whole game plan, but they did enough where it wasn't in question deep int o the game.
I'm not comparing ISU to Clemson, but am comparing the situation.