Early Thoughts On Next Season?

[FinalFourCy]

Either that or we find out we actually already have one on the roster.

Nixon could be the 3&D guy that you want, or you might have already been depending on him. Him stepping up his 3PT% would be nice. Hopefully playing within the context of a balanced offense and not needing to chuck will do that for him.

Lewis and Griffin match your description of a small-ball wing who can shoot... Assuming either of them play up to their rankings. Manny Leech could be that guy, as well.

Could be, but the cone narrows in on a successful season if we add another strong candidate.

@FinalFourCy

The great irony -- last year, our problem was we had three volume wing scorers. The offense could be fluid, but there was definitely a lot of YOLO chuckin' going on, too.

We never quite got them to play together smoothly or at least consistently (worked well in Kansas City as a group, however), even if the offense was still really good.

Next year, our problem is that is we have zero of them proven at the high-major level.

We are unlikely to bring in somebody you can build the offense around, like we were probably "planning" to do assuming one of Wigginton or Horton-Tucker was coming back. Oh well, like you said, we just have to find another identity and way to win.

Just having one of those three back would change things a lot.

Yeah, we saw the best (on average very good) and the worst parts (isolated situational plays that determined games) of having that redundancy. Fans wondered how things would turn out once LW came back, recognizing the challenge the staff had in making it as superpositional as possible and managing player aspirations. How do you sell a kid on that the value of having so many scorers is in what they don't have to do (take as many shots)? Prohm actually got that imo out of LW, with his ratings and efficiencies up despite not changing shooting percentages.

Do we have someone we can count on to get the defense rotating? Can Conditt, Jacobson, Young, and Anderson all improve as shooters, as imo we're going to rely on Haliburton, Jackson, and Nixon starting everything with high ball screens.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Could be, but the cone of narrows in on a successful season if we add another strong candidate.



Yeah, we saw the best (on average very good) and the worst parts (isolated situational plays that determined games) of having that redundancy. Fans wondered how things would turn out once LW came back, recognizing the challenge the staff had in making it as superpositional as possible and managing player aspirations. How do you sell a kid on that the value of having so many scorers is in what they don't have to do (take as many shots)? Prohm actually got that imo out of LW, with his ratings and efficiencies up despite not changing shooting percentages.

Do we have someone we can count on to get the defense rotating? Can Conditt, Jacobson, Young, and Anderson all improve as shooters, as imo we're going to rely on Haliburton, Jackson, and Nixon starting everything with high ball screens.

Good analysis. Thank you.

That high PNR has been a staple of the offense since Fred arrived, however.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Good analysis. Thank you.

That high PNR has been a staple of the offense since Fred arrived, however.

Agree, but it’s effectiveness becomes more important if you also don’t have guys that can get you buckets. Do we have someone that can consistently do that? Next year could be rough if not and we’re relying on running PNR with poor shooting Young and Jacobson.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Right, but it’s effectiveness becomes more important if you also don’t have guys that can get you buckets. Do we have someone that can consistently do that? Next year could be rough if not and we’re relying on running PNR with poor shooting Young and Jacobson.

Nick and Mike ran a pretty decent version of it last year. Jacobson is not a great shooter, but I think he is just good enough to keep a defense honest on him.

My bigger concern is with the guard -- we know Haliburton can shoot from a spot up position, but can he reliably pull up and hit that Chris Paul elbow jumper like Nick could, or even go to the rim with a decent chance of succeeding with it? Nick could do those things, and did a decent job finding the open man out of it (with so many weapons around him).

Can Haliburton handle being the maestro of the offense like that?

We have not seen Nixon or any of the other guards do it, either.

 

[1973 Banker Clone]

The case for ISU having the most experienced starting lineup in the Big 12: OK St returns 5 starters. In my mind, ISU could/has 4 legimate returning starters in Jacobson, Nixon, Young & Haliburton. Add a grad transfer senior to the starting lineup & we will have more upper classman starters than any other team in the Big 12.

 

[FinalFourCy]

The case for ISU having the most experienced starting lineup in the Big 12: OK St returns 5 starters. In my mind, ISU could/has 4 legimate returning starters in Jacobson, Nixon, Young & Haliburton. Add a grad transfer senior to the starting lineup & we will have more upper classman starters than any other team in the Big 12.

Baylor will have Clark, Kegler, Vital, Gillespie, Bandoo as upperclassmen with starting experience, plus Butler. They also get transfers eligible in Mitchell and Teague.

 

[1973 Banker Clone]

Baylor will have Clark, Kegler, Vital, Gillespie, Bandoo as upperclassmen with starting experience, plus Butler. They also get transfers eligible in Mitchell and Teague.

We would have 3 seniors, 1 RS junior & 1 sophomore as starters. Baylor will probably have 1 senior & 4 juniors as starters.

 

[woodm07]

We would have 3 seniors, 1 RS junior & 1 sophomore as starters. Baylor will probably have 1 senior & 4 juniors as starters.

You think we are going to start Young and Jacobson?

 

[FinalFourCy]

We would have 3 seniors, 1 RS junior & 1 sophomore as starters. Baylor will probably have 1 senior & 4 juniors as starters.

Which is neither more experienced or more upperclassmen (senior and juniors) than Baylor’s.

 

[1973 Banker Clone]

You think we are going to start Young and Jacobson?

It might be possible assuming Young is 100%. I believe you will see that both of them will have improved outside shots. Remember when we started Young & Lard together? We will have a lot of options.

 

[woodm07]

It might be possible assuming Young is 100%. I believe you will see that both of them will have improved outside shots. Remember when we started Young & Lard together? We will have a lot of options.

Two thoughts. One, I try to forget that year. Two, Prohm said on a podcast he expected to go 10-15 minutes a game playing big, rest small.

 

[1973 Banker Clone]

Which is neither more experienced or more upperclassmen (senior and juniors) than Baylor’s.

Add up the number of years of college experience including redshirt years for the proposed starters & ISU will have the most experience.

 

[cyclones500]

Not easy to predict how returning contributors and less-proven roster members will gel.

I'd like to have a season that isn't derailed by frequent injury problems (or suspensions).

 

[Sigmapolis]

Not easy to predict how returning contributors and less-proven roster members will gel.

I'd like to have a season that isn't derailed by frequent injury problems (or suspensions).

2015-2016
---
McKay suspensions
Cooke suspensions
Mitrou-Long injuries
Ernst injuries (not that this one probably mattered much)

2016-2017
---
Young injuries
Bowie suspensions
Holden injuries

2017-2018
---
Lard suspensions
Brase injuries
Long injuries
Talley injuries
Weiler-Babb injuries
Young injuries
Jackson personal leave

2018-2019
---
Wigginton injuries
Lard suspensions
Talley suspensions
Lard injuries
Talley injuries
Young injuries
Lewis suspensions
Shayok injuries

I do not know if there is an unusual number of them for us, but it sure feels like it.

 

[Jkclone15]

Here was our first eight Big 12 games that season (the ones prior to Tennessee)...

View attachment 63701

After Texas, Nick shut it down and the downward spiral started.

What if we win those two OT games and somehow take a bite out of KU in Lawrence? We were close enough. We had it at 3, 4, or 5 most of the second half.

At that point, we would have been...

14-5 (5-3) in the Big 12

The UW-Milwaukee home loss would have still been a black mark on the CV, but a few road Big 12 wins, and especially one in Lawrence, would make up for that.

If we take those "coin flip" and stay healthy from there...

Not saying we would have won the Big 12 tournament or made a deep run in the NCAA tournament, but that team had some potential. You could feel they were starting to figure a system, rotation, and how to play together out about that point.

Then Nick got hurt and, like you said, it all just went to hell.

If you can say guys like Halliburton and Jacobsen maxed out this year, you can also say Nick really did not. He was SO GOOD 2017-18 before the injury. Being surrounded by so much talent this season made him too complacent, though I also think having Solo as his big inflated his rebounding numbers.

 

[Sigmapolis]

If you can say guys like Halliburton and Jacobsen maxed out this year, you can also say Nick really did not. He was SO GOOD 2017-18 before the injury. Being surrounded by so much talent this season made him too complacent, though I also think having Solo as his big inflated his rebounding numbers.

I am not sure "complacent" is the right word. I just think he was deferring to some very talented guys with itchy trigger fingers. Nick was less of a feature of the offense.

I think everybody's rebounding numbers -- especially Lard -- suffered without Solomon out there to control space and box out the opponents' best rebounder. In 2017-2018, Solomon would box out, freeing Lard to go up and get it off the rim and do something with it.

Nick and the other guys would benefit in the same way.

That two-big system had its other problems, but that was one big advantage of it.

Lard was not nearly as good on the boards as a sophomore as a freshman. His rebounding percentages went down about 5% each for ORBD and DREB without Solo.

Having him back for that role will be nice.