Massey Ratings have ISU going 4-8
- Thread starter Bardman
- Start date
The defense alone will be good enough to win more than 4 games but this offense has been figured out. They need to be less RPO centered, Brock can run that in his sleep but sometimes he's too robotic and teams are figuring out how to influence his choices, which results in them dictating what we do on offense. Texas showed teams how to play Brock last season and basically every team since has defended him similar to what they did. We need to be more proactive and put pressure on defenses rather than letting them decide what we will do. That may not mean chucking the ball deep, it may be getting guys like Milton and Jones involved in the running game, Kene or Lang getting touches in the passing game etc....
Our previous starts aren’t particularly foretelling imo, or slow.
Last year the schedule was the issue. We were a week behind the teams we faced due to the cancellation. We also had the Purdy revelation. Replace UNI with OU and Noland for Purdy and we’re likely 1-3 to start this year too. What event like Purdy will happen this year?
In 2017 the offense started fine, but we had a defensive revolution four games in. Will we have an offensive philosophical change this year?
I don’t buy the we start slow. We’ve also struggled to finish the season. The last two October’s have been great, but largely circumstantial and random. We’re a team that makes games come down to fortuitous bounces and calls.
Do we miss them? They’d make us better, but we’re doing just as well as a year ago. These early season games without them don’t look any different than the finish to last year.
Bad news for a team that’s struggled to win the turnover battle and has had mediocre special teams for over a year. On one hand we’ve managed to overcome that to be around .500 in close games. On the other hand, some of those close wins arguably shouldn’t have been close, and we’re tempting fate as we saw last week.
And in 2017, we had a few games that we should've probably won.. Iowa, Okie State, and KSU. It usually evens out in the end.
If we lost one wouldn’t it project us 6-6 and not 4-8? How did we move from 6-7 wins to 4 after a close loss?
What did Massey project us last year after going 1-3?
It would have made a difference, for the same reason losing it results in a game less makes sense. Presumably we would have “played” better to the algorithm had we won, which this early in the year would have swung some of those close losses to close wins. That’s in addition to turning a toss up into a full win, rather than the full loss
Do you know how many wins it projected us to have last year the week after going 1-3?
Yeah, 2005 was the ultimate WTF for record vs. schedule. They also allowed one or two plays to affect them for a whole game it seemed. 2012 I think expectations rose because of some of the peaks of 2011 but we forgot that team also lost the last 3 games of the season.
This roster imo has more balance and guys with abilities to do more...it's whether or not they are utilized correctly and leaders/playmakers need to emerge.
It's not a guy sitting down and choosing games, it's an algorithm he wrote and was one of the BCS computer rankings. Like all statistical rankings it's not really useful until more games have been played, but it is one of the best systems out there.
Yeah, as we saw in our first two games...there's not much difference between going 4-8 and 8-4.
I’m not trying to argue how accurate it is/was, I was generally curious what it predicted last season after that kind of start.
I think we've lost just as many close games as we've won the last two years.
I have a feeling that the UNI game would have looked very different if Chuck Bruce had been present.
Different schedule. We had lost games that were originally losses or tosses ups. In terms of a summation of win share of the future 8 games, I doubt it changed much, although the putrid offense may have tested that.
But in terms of final record, the conversion of odds to binary outcomes that happens on played games, would have resulted in a lower win total. In a 12 game season there is significantly more intrinsic value in the forecast going into Game 5 than Game 3, with the extrinsic value lowered.
Well maybe if we'd stop building stuff and concentrate on winning games.....
Oops. Wait. Wrong thread
Oops. Wait. Wrong thread
Maybe, but the running game was just as good as ever, if not more consistent.
To say we miss him is a relative statement implying degradation from when we had him.
DM would make any team better, but that doesn’t mean a team can’t get better or maintain without him. This offense hasn’t struggled any more than last year imo. Of course it would be better with him.
The Iowa game makes me think the coaches know this. I thought the offense against Iowa looked quite a bit better than against UNI and the stats back it up.
UNI - 4.1 YPC Rushing, 6.8 YPC Passing
Iowa - 4.8 YPC Rushing, 9.3 YPC Passing
There were a couple more aggressive play calls that led to big plays against Iowa. Unfortunately, new and more aggressive plays can lead to more inconsistency. A couple turnovers and poor 3rd down conversion rate did Iowa State in. Getting that tightened up will lead to the coaches being more comfortable to implement and call new stuff.
