***Official ISU Bowl Predictions***

[ElephantPie]

OU is making the playoff if they go 12-1.

OU 12-1
Conference champ
3 or 4 top 25 wins (Baylor x2, OSU, ISU/KSU winner)
Loss to a 7 or 8 win (top 25) team on the road

Utah 12-1
Conference Champ
1 top 25 win (Oregon)
Loss to a 8 win top 25 team on the road

Alabama 11-1
1 top 25 win (Auburn)
Loss to #1 team at home before their QB was hurt

OU gets in in that situation. Never mind that OU’s brand is a million times better than Utah

OU lost to KSU. So if ISU wins this weekend, OU has a win against an 8 win team and a loss to a 7 win team. If KSU wins this weekend, OU has a win against a 7 win team and a loss to an 8 win team.

My opinion (which isn't worth much) is that the Big XII likes OU's chances of making the playoffs better if their loss is to an 8 win team. My paranoia says the refs will favor KSU Saturday.

 

[FinalFourCy]

My opinion (which isn't worth much) is that the Big XII likes OU's chances of making the playoffs better if their loss is to an 8 win team. My paranoia says the refs will favor KSU Saturday.

The best chance for OU was being undefeated and beating KSU, yet the refs overturned that onside recovery.

I expect there to be bad calls due to incompetence, but I don’t think there will be a motive to prop up an average KSU team so OU’s loss months ago looks slightly less bad.

 

[ElephantPie]

The best chance for OU was being undefeated and beating KSU, yet the refs overturned that onside recovery.

I expect there to be bad calls due to incompetence, but I don’t think there will be a motive to prop up an average KSU team so OU’s loss months ago looks slightly less bad.

Your logic is sound.
My paranoia developed as a 40+ yr ISU fan and my wounds from ISU's last game in Manhattan that haven't healed yet don't agree with your logic.

 

[JP4CY]

UGA isn’t beating LSU. Their offense can’t keep up.

It's tough to predict GA. LSU's defense is bad. I'd expect LSU to win for sure though.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Your logic is sound.
My paranoia developed as a 40+ yr ISU fan and my wounds from ISU's last game in Manhattan that haven't healed yet don't agree with your logic.

The last game in Manhattan had implications on the CFP?

I’m still pissed about that game. Absolutely stolen from this program and should have been an 8 or 9 win season. But I never thought it was due to anything other than individual incompetence by a infamously bad crew.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

We will see, but having OU ranked 2 spots lower than Utah last week was pretty telling. If OU is still ranked lower than Utah tomorrow night then they will probably not jump Utah if they both win out. Although Baylor is a top 25 win people still see their really weak non-conference schedule and aren't sold on them (thus their ranking with 1 loss).

Plus if Bama beats Auburn I don't see the committee moving them down 2 spots in the final pre-bowl rankings.

One loss Ohio State jumped both one loss Baylor and one loss TCU the first year of the playoff, remember the Big 12 schools did not have that 13th data point. Let see how that plays out with Alabama this year when there are a couple one loss conference champions still in the mix. The year Alabama made it before as a non conference champ, the other contenders had two losses. Or will the committee fall back on the "eye test" as a way to get Alabama in?

We need LSU and Ohio St, to win out and Oregon to beat Utah, with OU or even Baylor winning out.

 

[kcbob79clone]

OU lost to KSU. So if ISU wins this weekend, OU has a win against an 8 win team and a loss to a 7 win team. If KSU wins this weekend, OU has a win against a 7 win team and a loss to an 8 win team.

My opinion (which isn't worth much) is that the Big XII likes OU's chances of making the playoffs better if their loss is to an 8 win team. My paranoia says the refs will favor KSU Saturday.

#SnyderEffect is always in play when we play K-State. Now you are saying it will be amplified? Get the nut cups ready!

 

[LanningIsBakersDaddy]

I could be way off but wont Oregon be nearly 7 point favorites vs. Utah in the Pac 12 title game?

I think its more likely Oregon plays in the Rose as Pac 12 champ and Utah gets the Alamo as runner-up.

If the above plays out I'd rather go to Orlando against Notre Dame.

I agree with all of this. I think the scenario where we get Oregon in the Alamo is where Utah wins the the Pac12 and then get snubbed for the playoff. In this case I am assuming Oklahoma would make the playoff.

So Utah gets the Pac12 NY6 bowl, OU gets into the playoff, Baylor gets the Sugar Bowl, and then Oregon and Iowa State meet in the Alamo Bowl.

I'd be very happy with that or Notre Dame!

 

[JM4CY]

The last game in Manhattan had implications on the CFP?

I’m still pissed about that game. Absolutely stolen from this program and should have been an 8 or 9 win season. But I never thought it was due to anything other than individual incompetence by a infamously bad crew.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

The best chance for OU was being undefeated and beating KSU, yet the refs overturned that onside recovery.

I expect there to be bad calls due to incompetence, but I don’t think there will be a motive to prop up an average KSU team so OU’s loss months ago looks slightly less bad.

It was a tragedy that OU lost that game. As the dust settles in the conference, there really just isn't that much disparity in teams 1-7 in this conference. OU should end up winning the conference, but as last week proved, I don't think they're that much better than even TCU. This was a beatable OU team this year, and somehow only 1 school took advantage. They don't belong in the CFP, but if they get there, great for a conference that up and down the board was really just mediocre this year.

 

[FinalFourCy]

It was a tragedy that OU lost that game. As the dust settles in the conference, there really just isn't that much disparity in teams 1-7 in this conference. OU should end up winning the conference, but as last week proved, I don't think they're that much better than even TCU. This was a beatable OU team this year, and somehow only 1 school took advantage. They don't belong in the CFP, but if they get there, great for a conference that up and down the board was really just mediocre this year.

Why don’t they belong?

Having more parity and a lot of close games isn’t necessarily a sign of not belonging. If you’re in to looking at winning margins in a couple games, OU beat Texas by a similar margin as LSU beat Texas.

OU destroyed every SEC level bad team they played. KSU is better than South Carolina.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

Why don’t they belong?

Parity and a lot of close games isn’t necessarily a sign of not belonging. If you’re in to looking at winning margins in a couple games, OU beat Texas by a similar margin as LSU beat Texas.

I just don't think they pass a certain eye test that Clemson, Ohio State, LSU do. Those programs have had a close game too, but haven't lost one of them yet. I guess you could toss them in to the mix for that 4th spot with Utah, Georgia, and Bama, tho if Bama hadn't lost Tua I don't think we'd even be having this conversation. They simply aren't as good, and while they're record says they could be, 13 weeks of watching them tells me otherwise.

 

[isufbcurt]

I think tonight's ranking will be telling. If bama is 5, Utah 6 and OU 7, I have a hard time believing OU or Utah will jump Bama if they beat Auburn.

 

[ElephantPie]

The last game in Manhattan had implications on the CFP?

I’m still pissed about that game. Absolutely stolen from this program and should have been an 8 or 9 win season. But I never thought it was due to anything other than individual incompetence by a infamously bad crew.

I worded my response poorly. I agree with your post. It was a great point that if the refs wanted to change game outcomes for OU's benefit, they would've done it in their game vs KSU this year.

I have a part of me that is paranoid. It is illogical. A sound argument won't convince it that people aren't out to get me. It thinks all bad calls are refs being biased. It is wrong but it is still there trying to pull me down with it.

 

[FinalFourCy]

I worded my response poorly. I agree with your post. It was a great point that if the refs wanted to change game outcomes for OU's benefit, they would've done it in their game vs KSU this year.

I have a part of me that is paranoid. It is illogical. A sound argument won't convince it that people aren't out to get me. It thinks all bad calls are refs being biased. It is wrong but it is still there trying to pull me down with it.

I respect that.
Refs are humans (I guess), and prejudice, if not nefarious intentions, are likely to occur at some level.

 

[agrabes]

One loss Ohio State jumped both one loss Baylor and one loss TCU the first year of the playoff, remember the Big 12 schools did not have that 13th data point. Let see how that plays out with Alabama this year when there are a couple one loss conference champions still in the mix. The year Alabama made it before as a non conference champ, the other contenders had two losses. Or will the committee fall back on the "eye test" as a way to get Alabama in?

We need LSU and Ohio St, to win out and Oregon to beat Utah, with OU or even Baylor winning out.

The "13th Data Point" narrative was already proven false in 2016 when Ohio State was selected for the playoff without having participated in its conference championship. Had there been a rematch game between Baylor and TCU in 2014, Ohio State still would have been selected over the winner. The reality is that the playoff committee will select who it thinks is the best 4 teams based on no real metrics. They will prioritize the biggest brand name teams if they have any ability to do so. Within a +/- range of 1 win between P5 teams they have the ability to choose who they want. In 2016, they could argue that Ohio State had a better record than the winner of the Big 10, so they used that excuse.

This year, you have to assume that Utah, Baylor, and Minnesota will get the shaft based on being small market/small brand teams. Oklahoma, Georgia and Alabama will be favored if there is any opportunity for the selection committee to do it. Minnesota could make it if they win out, including the B10 championship, but I don't think the others have a possible path. This year feels like a 2 SEC teams year to me - I don't think Oklahoma is good enough this year.

 

[Cycsk]

Just got the new Athletic bowl projections. Mandel has:

Dec. 28 | Camping World | Orlando
Notre Dame (ACC No. 2) vs. Iowa State (Big 12 No. 3)

 

[RonBurgundy]

Alabama has 9 P5 games this year (8 SEC + Duke) and currently has zero wins over a CFP ranked team. One is possible this weekend v Auburn.

OU will play 11 P5 games this year (9 Big 12 + Championship + UCLA) and currently has two wins over a CFP ranked team. Four is possible this weekend v OSU and championship v Baylor.

So I would not be surprised if Alabama remains above OU tonight, but OU should pass Alabama if they win out with two more games against CFP teams.

But that assumes ISU wins and OSU does not fall far, otherwise OU may only have two CFP wins.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

The "13th Data Point" narrative was already proven false in 2016 when Ohio State was selected for the playoff without having participated in its conference championship. Had there been a rematch game between Baylor and TCU in 2014, Ohio State still would have been selected over the winner. The reality is that the playoff committee will select who it thinks is the best 4 teams based on no real metrics. They will prioritize the biggest brand name teams if they have any ability to do so. Within a +/- range of 1 win between P5 teams they have the ability to choose who they want. In 2016, they could argue that Ohio State had a better record than the winner of the Big 10, so they used that excuse.

This year, you have to assume that Utah, Baylor, and Minnesota will get the shaft based on being small market/small brand teams. Oklahoma, Georgia and Alabama will be favored if there is any opportunity for the selection committee to do it. Minnesota could make it if they win out, including the B10 championship, but I don't think the others have a possible path. This year feels like a 2 SEC teams year to me - I don't think Oklahoma is good enough this year.

You just summed up my whole problem with the current system, before we had a "rigged" BCS system that favored certain teams and conferences over others. Now we have a system that allows the committee to select the teams that they want, with little regards to criteria, that seems to change on a yearly basis.

Why is there not a set of rules to follow and criteria to determine who is eligible for the 4 team playoff? Uniform scheduling of games, currently you have teams like Alabama playing less P5 schools on a yearly basis during the regular season than Iowa State.
So the committee can pick and chose which schools and conferences get into the playoffs and the Big XII and Pac XII are at the bottom of the picking order.

We need an 8 team playoff, all P5 conference champions get in, every school must play 10 P5 opponents during the regular season, not counting conference championship games. The final 3 sports go to the next highest ranked teams, with the thought that if a G5 school is undefeated, they are assured one of those final 3 spots.

 

[tyler24]

The "13th Data Point" narrative was already proven false in 2016 when Ohio State was selected for the playoff without having participated in its conference championship. Had there been a rematch game between Baylor and TCU in 2014, Ohio State still would have been selected over the winner. The reality is that the playoff committee will select who it thinks is the best 4 teams based on no real metrics. They will prioritize the biggest brand name teams if they have any ability to do so. Within a +/- range of 1 win between P5 teams they have the ability to choose who they want. In 2016, they could argue that Ohio State had a better record than the winner of the Big 10, so they used that excuse.

This year, you have to assume that Utah, Baylor, and Minnesota will get the shaft based on being small market/small brand teams. Oklahoma, Georgia and Alabama will be favored if there is any opportunity for the selection committee to do it. Minnesota could make it if they win out, including the B10 championship, but I don't think the others have a possible path. This year feels like a 2 SEC teams year to me - I don't think Oklahoma is good enough this year.

This is what makes me somewhat miss the BCS. Loved having a computer factor that took human bias out of this stuff.