Crazy Scenario...Does ISU make it to the playoffs here?

[RustShack]

If anyone is watching GameDay this morning, you know why we'll never make the CFP unless we're undefeated or maybe one loss against a REALLY good team.

ISU is being treated like a cute little underdog story, but not a serious contender at all this morning.... and nationally to be honest. It's garbage.

But yet, they are trying to find ways to make any case they can for tOSU. What in the world makes tOSU look like a top 4 team right now? They beat Nebby (terrible team), they beat Penn State (terrible team), they beat Rutgers (terrible team), and they beat Indiana in a one possession game.... and nobody knows if Indiana is any good either because they haven't beaten anyone either.... they got ranked where they are by beating Penn State by one point, and we all know how good Penn State is.

They are also assuming we lose to Oklahoma in the Conference Championship. So yes, we would not be in the playoffs in their eyes right now.

We more than likely won’t be in it even if we do win the next two games, but we’ll be in the conversation and set up pretty well next year.

 

[Gorm]

It would be awesome to see Mich state knock off Ohio State somehow today.

 

[Cydkar]

Our first game was a disqualifier. I would be upset if I actually thought we were a top 4 team. I’m happy that we are very very good. Our time will come if Matt stays. We’ve got two more games to sway opinions anyway.

 

[ISUTex]

Before anyone says anything, I know this is a crazy scenario, so I'm not posting to debate that. I just wanted to see what everyone here thinks about if this happens:

Current Playoff standings:
1. Alabama
2. ND
3. Clemson
4. Ohio State
5. TAMU
6. Florida
7. Cincy
8. Georgia
9. Iowa State

TAMU loses to Auburn this weekend (which I actually think will happen)
Florida loses one of either Tennessee or LSU
Ohio State doesn't play enough games (I believe the minimum is 6 and the B1G keeps cancelling games)
Georgia ends up making the SEC ship and gets blown out by Alabama
Cincy loses to Tulsa on December 12

ND also will play Clemson in the ACC 'ship. If Lawrence plays and ND blows out Clemson, there's a chance they could be knocked out as well if one of the above doesn't happen.

In a wacky scenario like this, does ISU make it (assume ISU wins against WVU and Oklahoma/Oklahoma State in the conference championship) to the CFB Playoff? I feel like this is the only scenario where we can pull this off.

If all of that happened and ISU blows out Oklahoma, then, yes. Iowa State would probably be playing Alabama and Notre Dame would be playing Georgia. But, all that ain't happening. Would be cool though.

 

[Lyon309Cy]

Oklahoma is playing as well as anyone right now. If we're good enough to beat them a second time, which is really the starting point for all these hypotheticals, I don't know why we'd just assume that we would get drilled by Bama. I know, careful what you wish for, but I'd love to see this team have the chance to measure themselves against the 'best'. This program didn't get to this point by being scared of the other team's jersey, I'm sure they would show up and represent us well.

I'm not going to lose sleep dreaming about it, we all know the committee isn't going to put in a non blueblood with a loss, much less 2. But it's not even a debate as to whether we would rather play for a championship or take an easier path to 10 wins.

 

[ISUTex]

Better yet, Clemson loses to Virginia Tech today, Miami loses to UNC next week, then Clemson gets trounced in ACC title game. (Even that might not be enough to drop Clemson below us at this point, but you'd think a 3-loss team with only 1 good win -- Miami -- gets it close).

We might as well add as many scenarios, however unrealistic, of opening at least one slot in top 4 but better yet 2 (in case some of the SEC stuff doesn't unfold properly).

Also, since we're reaching for the stars, we need as much micro-resume boost as possible, so we want Coastal Carolina to beat BYU, then lose to Louisiana in the Sun Belt championship.

Miami better watch out. I could easily see that happening.

 

[VeloClone]

Our first game was a disqualifier. I would be upset if I actually thought we were a top 4 team. I’m happy that we are very very good. Our time will come if Matt stays.

First game coupled with not running the table in conference. If ISU had only lost their first game to a team that is top 25 region they could certainly be contending for a playoff berth. Also, people tend to think that the weird way this season started (no spring ball, shortened fall camp, inability to practice normally with COVID restrictions, uncertainty about start date, etc.) could have contributed to teams starting off with poor performances.

 

[AlaCyclone]

ND, OU, OSU, MSU, UW and Clemson have all taken beatings in the CFP. I don’t think it sets a program back. Blowouts have been the norm in the CFP.

Fair point, but those are all programs that have won National Championships, won Conference Championships and / or won Major NY6 Bowl Games in my CFB Lifetime.

fyi: Just using this group as a sample, Alabama under Saban has played all 6 in a combined 8 BCS Championship / CFB Playoff Games with an average score of Alabama 35.5 Opponent 22.25.

Conclusion: Maybe, it wouldn't be so bad?

 

[CY88]

If your scenario played out ISU would not make the playoffs. The committee would select a 2 loss blue blood over ISU. In typical Iowa State fashion we would finish ranked 5th and left wondering what if we didn’t lose to Louisiana.

 

[clonedude]

If your scenario played out ISU would not make the playoffs. The committee would select a 2 loss blue blood over ISU. In typical Iowa State fashion we would finish ranked 5th and left wondering what if we didn’t lose to Louisiana.

They'd pick a 5-0 tOSU team with no good wins over a 9-2 ISU team with two wins over OU..... guarantee you that.

 

[Cydkar]

First game coupled with not running the table in conference. If ISU had only lost their first game to a team that is top 25 region they could certainly be contending for a playoff berth. Also, people tend to think that the weird way this season started (no spring ball, shortened fall camp, inability to practice normally with COVID restrictions, uncertainty about start date, etc.) could have contributed to teams starting off with poor performances.

I mean it disqualifies us, based on where we stand, no matter what happens.

 

[superiorcyclone]

Conference champs only.

 

[Inthesystem]

Be careful for what you ask for, because sometimes it happens. I hope Iowa State beats West Virginia and wins the Big Xii. Not interested in this glorious Iowa State team getting hammered by Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

I would love to see ISU’s defense vs. Alabama.

 

[clonedude]

I would love to see ISU’s defense vs. Alabama.

I seriously hope you're joking.

 

[Inthesystem]

I seriously hope you're joking.

Not at all.

 

[CaptainClutch]

In this particular case, I do not see the merit in Alabama stomping Iowa State 38-0 or 45-16 which would happen 10 out of 10 times and set Iowa State back. I would much prefer Big Xii Champion Iowa State go to and win the Cotton Bowl, finish (10-2) with a nice Top 5-ish ranking and set themselves up for a very special run next year. Sorry, but Alabama is going to drill some team in the four hole, and I would prefer it not be Iowa State.

10 out of 10? Idk man a crappy ole miss team took them to the wire. I don’t think we win but I don’t think they’re this juggernaut that would kick our crap in 10 out of 10 times.

 

[clonedude]

Not at all.

Not so sure about our DBs covering Alabama's WRs for very long when we rush 3 and Alabama's QB has all day to throw?

 

[Thomasrickj]

Usually you have to start the season with some rep to be in the hunt for the Playoffs. I think winning the next two games and the Bowl game and with who we have back - would definitely put ISU in the top 10 (possibly even top 5) to start 2021.

That would set us up for a very realistic shot at a playoff spot next year if we end up winning the conference and have 1 or fewer conference losses.

I think next year we will start the season in the 6-10 range preseason. Next year I'm not concerned about as the pieces are all there to make it happen.

 

[Inthesystem]

Not so sure about our DBs covering Alabama's WRs for very long when we rush 3 and Alabama's QB has all day to throw?

My point was I’d really like to see that comparison. Not suggesting that ISU would come up on top. I think it’s helpful over time to measure yourself against the best.

 

[Thomasrickj]

By the way, it is a playoff berth, not a birth.

Carry on...

Well, excuse me, Bill Nye the Science Guy!