Report: OU & Texas reach out to join SEC

[StPaulCyclone]

Where things will get VERY stick is when the lower tier of football can't 'challenge' the upper tier to prove superiority. Instead, the upper will always rely on marketing hype which they will always win because they've already bought into it.

Plus a huge gap in money to fund their NIL programs, which will positively impact recruiting and on-field results. The gap is going to continue to grow…

 

[Cloneon]

Plus a huge gap in money to fund their NIL programs, which will positively impact recruiting and on-field results. The gap is going to continue to grow…

Agree, but as I've posted before 'ratings' though good are far from the best assessment of an athlete's ability and future potential. See Iowa State for perfect example. Now if there is no governing body about 'mingling', expect big time programs attempt to recruit the Purdy's, Hall's, and Rose's of the world 'from' the Iowa State's of the world with guaranteed moneys. This is where an oversight governing body absolutely MUST EXIST.

 

[AlaCyclone]

Plus a huge gap in money to fund their NIL programs, which will positively impact recruiting and on-field results. The gap is going to continue to grow…

There is going to be an N.I.L. Divison and a non-N.I.L. Division. Quite frankly, ISU is better suited for the non-N.I.L. Division. Hence the move by Texas and OU. That part of all of this does not bother me. Good riddance. Now, they can pay their players above the table. So, my thinking is that Iowa State should plan accordingly.

 

[Cloneon]

There is going to be an N.I.L. Divison and a non-N.I.L. Division. Quite frankly, ISU is better suited for the non-N.I.L. Division. Hence the move by Texas and OU. That part of all of this does not bother me. Good riddance. Now, they can pay their players above the table. So, my thinking is that Iowa State should plan accordingly.

Who's going to regulate that? Who's going to enforce that (ie prevent Alabama from convincing Purdy he could make a million dollars by transferring)? There's no way a contract can exist in the non-NIL division. That's exactly what was just struck down by SCOTUS. And, as a result, poaching not only teams, but athletes will become an every year ordeal. Heck, might even become a weekly ordeal. My pessimistic side (which I'm reluctant to believe) fears this will become more like MLB. I've never been able to identify with being a Cubs fan like I was as a child because there's never enough time to enjoy the players. Heck, the Cubs just traded Rizzo. And I really liked that guy. It sucks. And the powers that be are doing the same thing to CFB.

 

[jbhtexas]

Who's going to regulate that? Who's going to enforce that (ie prevent Alabama from convincing Purdy he could make a million dollars by transferring)? There's no way a contract can exist in the non-NIL division. That's exactly what was just struck down by SCOTUS.

If there is a separation/split, I think it will be more along the lines of scholarship-only vs. scholarship+stipend/some-type-of-paid-player-arrangement. In which case NIL isn't going to be that big of deal for the former, because most of the players that will command notable NIL deals will be in the latter.

The latter option will be an academic joke, so it will be interesting to see which side all those big schools that pride themselves as academic bastions choose to be on...

 

[Cloneon]

If there is a separation/split, I think it will be more along the lines of scholarship-only vs. scholarship+stipend/some-type-of-paid-player-arrangement. In which case NIL isn't going to be that big of deal for the former, because most of the players that will command notable NIL deals will be in the latter.

The latter option will be an academic joke, so it will be interesting to see which side all those big schools that pride themselves as academic bastions choose to be on...

Still no answer to whom is going to regulate this. The NCAA? Not unless they re-emerge with support from every conference and a legal team who understands what the heck they're doing.

 

[jbhtexas]

Still no answer to whom is going to regulate this. The NCAA? Not unless they re-emerge with support from every conference and a legal team who understands what the heck they're doing.

Some sort of split from the NCAA has been rumored for years. The group will probably form their own governance board, hence my suggestion that academics will be an afterthought.

 

[Cyched]

academics will be an afterthought.

Not necessarily. The SEC schools could easily become football academies.

 

[iowastatefan1929]

we dont need a governing body, brent blum is wrong on this, we need 60% of university presidents in a dynamic system approving algorithms to govern us, and we dont need NIL and non NIL, we need a closed loop system where the Universities are the market makers and players are the investors.

 

[HFCS]

If we don't get a B1G or Pac invite, then I would assume those conferences aren't expanding and the Big 8 schools remain together. In that case we probably add BYU and Cincy and continue on, battling the Pac for the status of weakest P5. That is our floor here.

The only case where a B12 school ends up in the AAC is if the majority of the B12 find P5 homes and a few are left behind as the conference dissolves. If that happens, I expect us to be one of the schools with a new home.

ACC football has had some truly dreadful years in the past two decades outside of Clemson's recent dominant run. There were short
stretches without a top 25 team.

not that quality of football really matters in this.

 

[HFCS]

I was pretty level headed about all of this until the OU president lied they were doing this for the academic prestige of associating with Mississippi schools.

To push such an outrageous and stupid lie tells me he knows they are doing something pretty horrible.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

There is going to be an N.I.L. Divison and a non-N.I.L. Division. Quite frankly, ISU is better suited for the non-N.I.L. Division. Hence the move by Texas and OU. That part of all of this does not bother me. Good riddance. Now, they can pay their players above the table. So, my thinking is that Iowa State should plan accordingly.

There can't be a "non-NIL division"; NIL is happening because the Supreme Court said that colleges were illegally restricting the ability of student-athletes to go out and make their own money.

There definitely could eventually be an SEC/B1G super league separate from the NCAA where athletes get paid directly by the schools, though.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

If another invitation doesn't come, the goal of the 8 leftovers will be to keep their budgets as high as possible. Here are some figures:

NCAA Finances: Revenue & Expenses by School - USA TODAY

Which are the most profitable college athletic programs in the country? See a ranked listed, including total revenue and expenses. Brought to you by USA TODAY.

sports.usatoday.com

Texas - 223.9M
Oklahoma - 163.1M
Kansas - 121.6M
West Virginia - 102.7M
Texas Tech - 96.6M
Iowa State - 95.4M
Oklahoma State - 95.3M
Kansas State - 89.9M

Baylor and TCU aren't listed.

That's a current average of 123.6M. Remove UT and OU and it drops to 100.3M. Take away the ~$20M per school in media rights that will be lost along with fewer bowl bids and other sources of revenue with a lesser conference and that average is likely somewhere in the 70Ms - maybe even the 60Ms, if TCU and Baylor are at the low end of the spectrum.

So the goal will be to find G5 schools that can bring in revenue as high as possible - if they are near 70M, they might rise everyone's tide.

Highest G5 budgets:

UConn - 80.9M
Houston - 75.0M
UCF - 69.1M
Cincinnati - 68.9M
Air Force - 60.0M
East Carolina - 60.0M
Colorado State - 56.1M
Memphis - 55.8M
USF - 55.0M

BYU isn't listed, although they are a safe bet to be above or near the top of this G5 range.

UConn is going to the Big East and their football program is horrifying, so they are not a good choice. Otherwise, in addition to BYU, there are a clear top 3 in revenue: Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati. Adding them would be a smart move.

I expect the league would divide Texas across both divisions, with TCU in one and Houston in the other for recruiting purposes. Divisions could look something like this (with protected rivals in parenthesis):

Big 12 West
BYU (Cincinnati)
Texas Tech (Houston)
TCU (Baylor)
Oklahoma State
Kansas
Kansas State (Iowa State)

Big 12 East
Iowa State (K-State)
Baylor (TCU)
Houston (Texas Tech)
Cincinnati (BYU)
West Virginia
UCF

 

[aeroclone]

ACC football has had some truly dreadful years in the past two decades outside of Clemson's recent dominant run. There were short
stretches without a top 25 team.

not that quality of football really matters in this.

Good point, but I tend to think the demographics and location favor the ACC staying ahead of the Pac as far as TV money in the future. The time zone and lower level of fan interest on the west coast seems like it will always hold the Pac down. Honestly they should be the league losing top teams and imploding, but their geographic distance shelters them.

 

[StPaulCyclone]

Agree, but as I've posted before 'ratings' though good are far from the best assessment of an athlete's ability and future potential. See Iowa State for perfect example. Now if there is no governing body about 'mingling', expect big time programs attempt to recruit the Purdy's, Hall's, and Rose's of the world 'from' the Iowa State's of the world with guaranteed moneys. This is where an oversight governing body absolutely MUST EXIST.

Vanderbilt and Kentucky will be be able to fund NIL programs that will Outpace most non-blue bloods. As the NCAA crumbles, the SEC and others are going to take advantage of the lawless situation with the absence of a governing body.

 

[aeroclone]

If another invitation doesn't come, the goal of the 8 leftovers will be to keep their budgets as high as possible. Here are some figures:

NCAA Finances: Revenue & Expenses by School - USA TODAY

Which are the most profitable college athletic programs in the country? See a ranked listed, including total revenue and expenses. Brought to you by USA TODAY.

sports.usatoday.com

Texas - 223.9M
Oklahoma - 163.1M
Kansas - 121.6M
West Virginia - 102.7M
Texas Tech - 96.6M
Iowa State - 95.4M
Oklahoma State - 95.3M
Kansas State - 89.9M

Baylor and TCU aren't listed.

That's a current average of 123.6M. Remove UT and OU and it drops to 100.3M. Take away the ~$20M per school in media rights that will be lost along with fewer bowl bids and other sources of revenue with a lesser conference and that average is likely somewhere in the 70Ms - maybe even the 60Ms, if TCU and Baylor are at the low end of the spectrum.

So the goal will be to find G5 schools that can bring in revenue as high as possible - if they are near 70M, they might rise everyone's tide.

Highest G5 budgets:

UConn - 80.9M
Houston - 75.0M
UCF - 69.1M
Cincinnati - 68.9M
Air Force - 60.0M
East Carolina - 60.0M
Colorado State - 56.1M
Memphis - 55.8M
USF - 55.0M

BYU isn't listed, although they are a safe bet to be above or near the top of this G5 range.

UConn is going to the Big East and their football program is horrifying, so they are not a good choice. Otherwise, in addition to BYU, there are a clear top 3 in revenue: Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati. Adding them would be a smart move.

I expect the league would divide Texas across both divisions, with TCU in one and Houston in the other for recruiting purposes. Divisions could look something like this (with protected rivals in parenthesis):

Big 12 West
BYU (Cincinnati)
Texas Tech (Houston)
TCU (Baylor)
Oklahoma State
Kansas
Kansas State (Iowa State)

Big 12 East
Iowa State (K-State)
Baylor (TCU)
Houston (Texas Tech)
Cincinnati (BYU)
West Virginia
UCF

If you are expanding the B12 you promote BYU and one more, you don't add 3. We don't need to elevate more competition to that level for when the next round of realignment comes around.

 

[ISUCyclones2015]

I think OU and UT (beyond hoping the league would disintegrate) were looking at a $140 million buyout (IIRC) as the ceiling for the exit price in negotiations, and if they met in the middle in negotiations, that's $70 million.

If the Big 12 is successful with their current gambit, one could estimate that each of the remaining 8 schools stand to lose $10-20 million per year as a result of the tortious interference, for whatever term it seems likely to take for the damages to play out (let's say 10 years for sake of argument).

Conservatively, that's 8 teams x $10,000,000-$20,000,000/year x 10 years= $800 million to $1.6 billion.

That's the new ceiling for negotiations from the standpoint of the remaining Big 12 members.

In that light, the $140 million doesn't sound so bad now, does it?

I did some nice math in the premium board that says the ceiling should be $71 billion. Let's shoot for the moon baby

 

[cyIclSoneU]

If you are expanding the B12 you promote BYU and one more, you don't add 3. We don't need to elevate more competition to that level for when the next round of realignment comes around.

Adding BYU and Houston/Cincinnati and staying at 10 is also a good option, although I'm not sure if going to 12 as written above would make everyone more money (it might). And if it makes more money then I expect they will do it.

If there is a 12-team playoff with conference champ autobids, that's another good reason to stop at 10. 1 out of 10 will make the playoff vs. 1 out of 12. Your odds just went up.

 

[BCClone]

I keep going back and forth on this. On the one hand, The B1G will need inventory. On the other hand, ISU would have to bring in a minimum of 55 million a year for the B1G. There is no way our per year valuation is that high. B1G won’t do anything. I know we are a fit anyway you look at it, but the birth lottery didn’t work in our favor. I think the PAC12 should be the play or prepare for life in the AAC.

Big ten won’t pay us a full share right away. We will get 30 some mill right away and then after 5-10 years get to the whole level. So they just have to believe that in 10 years or so that what they make with us will not cut into them as a whole.

 

[surly]

If another invitation doesn't come, the goal of the 8 leftovers will be to keep their budgets as high as possible.

I believe this is a clueless post. The goal will be to have an athletic program that's robust and financially stable. Spending a lot of money needlessly is hardly an admirable objective. Olympic sports are going to take a major hit if this plays out as ESPN has it designed for football.

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