Pac-12 to decide whether to expand within a couple weeks

[flycy]

THIS is something many are missing....Bowlsby went from pissed to full radio silence in .01 seconds. He doesn't do that unless something big...and positive...is happening behind the scenes. What that "big" thing may be is very unclear at this point...but there is something.

I said this quite a while ago, the sudden silence after threatening to recover not just GOR money but damages leads me to believe the strategy worked and something is in the works to avoid expensive court cases for all, especially ESPN. Its not hard to beleive there is clear evidence of tampering, although evidence is often ignored by courts.

 

[flycy]

I hope I am wrong and you are right. It’s not just my opinion, but article after article document industry sources stating how none of the schools in the big 12 do anything. I personally think ISU/OSU/Tech/KU add value to the Pac12. I see the added inventory along with potential B1G/ACC matchups if we are added as a plus. Iowa vs ISU being one. However, the scheduling alliance solves that for the Pac12. If that is the case, why would they expand?

The restructured Big 12 will be a good conference, but also a pay cut. I have stated repeatedly that I don’t know anything. I understand data and statistical forecasting. The numbers I have seen definitely makes ISU to the B1G highly unlikely (Let’s say 3% with a 1% margin of error). ISU in the Pac12…different story. I just don’t know that it is enough, thus making it also unlikely (Let’s say 20% with a 5% margin of error). I would put the probability of getting in to another conference at 30% on the high end, but more around 25%. That leaves the lion share of probability remaining in the current Big 12 or heading to the AAC at around 70%.

I am glad you are looking forward to my responses and am okay with you calling out my negativity. Maybe I post as a coping mechanism for dealing with the uncertainty surrounding the program I love? I don’t know. However, the staying in a reconstructed Big 12 is the most likely of outcomes and I have to let go of my biases (which I believe we should be in a Power Conference). You can say I am beating a dead horse, but all evidence is pointing to this outcome as the most likely.

Your evidence appears to be your own manufactured probabilities. Nobody has a clue what will happen, just like a decade ago. I think most "experts" ie pompous media talking heads, agreed the probability of the Big 12 surviving then was near zero.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Getting a team into the playoffs if its expanded would be the least of the problems for a league like what we are talking about here.

Data from 2019 of how much each school athletic department received from the school.

Houston $48 million
Cincinnati $29.7 million
East Carolina $37.67 million
Memphis $20.5 million
South Florida $32 million


ISU $2.02 million
TT $3.5 million
OSU $ 88 thousand
KSU $0

The largest athletic budget of any of the AAC schools is Houston at $75 million, Cin. is at $68.8 the rest are lower.

ISU budget is $95.4 million, TT is $96.6 million, OSU $95.3, KSU $89.9 million.

The money is just not there for this to be an avenue except as last resort, it will kill all the Big 12's remaining teams.

https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/financeshttps://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances

The money is certainly different but revenue is tied to conference affiliation in a way that makes it not that useful of a comparison. Because conferences distribute not just TV money but bowl and CFP money, March Madness money, etc. Rutgers isn't actually inherently that valuable; so much of their value comes from being the B1G.

Still the point is well taken that even the AAC programs with comparable budgets are heavily subsidized. But pulling them up to the Big 12 (and it would be a true promotion, unlike what Stewart Mandel thinks) would naturally bring their budgets up somewhat. How much, we don't know.

I don't think anyone is talking about sticking together with G5 additions as anything but a "last resort" but my position on it is that is not a death sentence for ISU. We could still be playing in a league that gets one CFP berth. Our games could still be nationally relevant. We could compete with ACC and Pac-12 schools in the facilities and coaching arms race although the B1G and SEC are going to be in their own universe.

 

[ImperialCyclone]

Your evidence appears to be your own manufactured probabilities. Nobody has a clue what will happen, just like a decade ago. I think most "experts" ie pompous media talking heads, agreed the probability of the Big 12 surviving then was near zero.

This is correct. These are just probabilities I have assigned. I have yet to read anything from any credible media member that would refute these outcomes. Media isn’t everything and they have an agenda, I understand that. However, they are highly sourced and have repeatedly said this outcome is also the most likely.

 

[flycy]

Well...you'd think he'd be out beating the drum of how this action has damaged the conference and its programs. The more he can highlight and expose the collaboration that was going on....the tortious interference...the higher the potential settlement rises. He's not doing that after initially coming out like an angry wolverine. I'd conclude from that that he received some sort of new information that changed his approach pretty dramatically. Granted, I'm drawing this inference from incomplete information...as are we all...but I think its safe to say that Bowlsby was given some important information that we don't have. Information that changed his tactics significantly.

If there is settlements, I don't think they will be monetary. Remember last time the Networks stepped in and saved the Big 12. They don't want to destroy inventory. I think any settlement would involve Power 5 status for the remaining Big 12 schools, not necessarily through survival of the Big 12. All they have to do is offer enough money to contracts for a conference to be willing to add a team. Cheaper perhaps than a court fight they might lose and preserves inventory and fan bases to watch. Maybe not, especially since ESPN doesn't control all these conferences.

 

[flycy]

This may have been true a few weeks ago but not with this new alliance the conferences are reporting. They set up this alliance in response to what the SEC is doing and could continue to do. No way they start poaching each other in the alliance.

That would be like the AD of a school, say Missouri being the head of the committee to preserve the Big 12 bolting for the SEC the day after resigning that chairmanship. That would never happen.

 

[flycy]

Can confirm, I have driven thru the Flint Hills, and I saw BOTH of the beautiful trees there.

Reality is that any midwestern town is a pretty good place to live, but a terrible place to go on vacation. And for 90% of the country their perception is wrapped around the vacation part.

Also, Stillwater, Lubbock, Manhattan, Ames... everyone is entitled to bag on the other towns while pretending theirs is so way much better. Its a perk of being in the league.

And most places I like to go for vacation, I would hate to live in.

 

[flycy]

Lots of blame to go around but the B12's troubles started when former Commish Kevin Weiberg pushed for the formation of a Big 12 Network back in the 2006 timeframe (before BTN) and the quartet of UT, OU, aggy and Nebraska refused. All it took was for one of them to side with Weiberg and if that happened, the B12 would not be in the position it is today.

Yep, they all figured we are all on TV every week anyway. Why should we let the scrubs have that kind of exposure?

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

The money is certainly different but revenue is tied to conference affiliation in a way that makes it not that useful of a comparison. Because conferences distribute not just TV money but bowl and CFP money, March Madness money, etc. Rutgers isn't actually inherently that valuable; so much of their value comes from being the B1G.

Still the point is well taken that even the AAC programs with comparable budgets are heavily subsidized. But pulling them up to the Big 12 (and it would be a true promotion, unlike what Stewart Mandel thinks) would naturally bring their budgets up somewhat. How much, we don't know.

I don't think anyone is talking about sticking together with G5 additions as anything but a "last resort" but my position on it is that is not a death sentence for ISU. We could still be playing in a league that gets one CFP berth. Our games could still be nationally relevant. We could compete with ACC and Pac-12 schools in the facilities and coaching arms race although the B1G and SEC are going to be in their own universe.

ISU and the rest of the conference gets right around $40 million per year under the Big 12 contract, the AAC teams get $15 from their contract. If the league expands picking up the teams you are talking about after losing OU and UT, we drop from $40 million a year to maybe $20 to 25 million a year. A loss of 15 to 20 million per year going forward. Now where is ISU and the remaining schools going to come up with enough money to offset those losses? We are not, and that means all future projects are put on hold, because we are going to be struggling to pay of the debt we have already accrued.

Adding those schools will bleed ISU and the other conference schools to death, the only ones happy will be the AAC teams, that will bring our spending down to their level.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

ISU and the rest of the conference gets right around $40 million per year under the Big 12 contract, the AAC teams get $15 from their contract. If the league expands picking up the teams you are talking about after losing OU and UT, we drop from $40 million a year to maybe $20 to 25 million a year. A loss of 15 to 20 million per year going forward. Now where is ISU and the remaining schools going to come up with enough money to offset those losses? We are not, and that means all future projects are put on hold, because we are going to be struggling to pay of the debt we have already accrued.

Adding those schools will bleed ISU and the other conference schools to death, the only ones happy will be the AAC teams, that will bring our spending down to their level.

I agree it’s a bad situation financially, and it will be tough to navigate such a drop at first.

I don’t know if there is a better alternative if the B1G/Pac/ACC don’t come calling. Playing as an 8-team league when the other power conferences are at 12, 14, 14, and 16 doesn’t seem like a long-term solution at all. And there is also value in poaching the best teams from the AAC if there are a certain number of “top conference champs” spots in an expanded CFP - to make sure we get 1/12th of the CFP $$$ share if Cincinnati makes it in for example.

So the only thing to do at that point is to invite some other programs. I could be persuaded that we should stick to only 2 additions but I’m also sure that Amazon, FOX, whoever is going to play an enormous role in these decisions if it gets to the point that we all know we aren’t getting other lifeboats.

Of course I would rather be in the B1G or Pac-16 or whatever. I’m just saying we can move forward and make it work if that doesn’t happen. I’m not going to be turning in my ISU fan card and never going back to JTS if we end up inviting BYU and UCF to the conference and our AD budget drops by $30MM a year.

 

[scyclonekid]

We need to stay in a power conference, where who knows, but it’s paramount we do.

 

[CloneJD]

ISU and the rest of the conference gets right around $40 million per year under the Big 12 contract, the AAC teams get $15 from their contract. If the league expands picking up the teams you are talking about after losing OU and UT, we drop from $40 million a year to maybe $20 to 25 million a year. A loss of 15 to 20 million per year going forward. Now where is ISU and the remaining schools going to come up with enough money to offset those losses? We are not, and that means all future projects are put on hold, because we are going to be struggling to pay of the debt we have already accrued.

Adding those schools will bleed ISU and the other conference schools to death, the only ones happy will be the AAC teams, that will bring our spending down to their level.

Man some people have difficulty with change. Things will be different but life will go on.

 

[CloneJD]

We need to stay in a power conference, where who knows, but it’s paramount we do.

Hadn’t thought of that. Have you emailed JP?

 

[Statefan10]

Hadn’t thought of that. Have you emailed JP?

I have. Three times. Hasn’t responded once. Must be busy er something.

 

[LincolnSwinger]

This is correct. These are just probabilities I have assigned. I have yet to read anything from any credible media member that would refute these outcomes. Media isn’t everything and they have an agenda, I understand that. However, they are highly sourced and have repeatedly said this outcome is also the most likely.

There are so many variables that impact the odds, I don't think the media nor fans have a handle on how to handicap the outcome.

Longer version - CFB is the content that has value. How is it going to get split up in the future? Brands like OU and UT have more value than ISU and KSU, But the big brands derive a large portion of their value from the smaller brands. With CFB, conferences add another layer to the same dynamic. So tOSU > Purdue, and Big 10 > ACC etc. But the Big 10 needs the ACC etc.

Now add streaming vs traditional broadcasting. Another complicating factor. Add that Amazon might derive non-traditional value from the broadcasting rights. More complications.

Now add that there are non-athletic factors to the university presidents' decision (political, cultural, academic etc)

Now add game theory at every level of decision making.

I'm probably missing some variables.

It's freakin' complicated as hell. The economic incentives of the players are very, very difficult to discern and, worse, they're iterative.

IMO, if a person hasn't been living and breathing all these factors for the past several years but they have a strong opinion, they're overweighting the factors they do understand and ignoring those they don't.

 

[scyclonekid]

Hadn’t thought of that. Have you emailed JP?

I’m on it lol

 

[Clonehomer]

I have. Three times. Hasn’t responded once. Must be busy er something.

Probably jet skiing again.

 

[Cloneon]

I hope I am wrong and you are right. It’s not just my opinion, but article after article document industry sources stating how none of the schools in the big 12 do anything. I personally think ISU/OSU/Tech/KU add value to the Pac12. I see the added inventory along with potential B1G/ACC matchups if we are added as a plus. Iowa vs ISU being one. However, the scheduling alliance solves that for the Pac12. If that is the case, why would they expand?

The restructured Big 12 will be a good conference, but also a pay cut. I have stated repeatedly that I don’t know anything. I understand data and statistical forecasting. The numbers I have seen definitely makes ISU to the B1G highly unlikely (Let’s say 3% with a 1% margin of error). ISU in the Pac12…different story. I just don’t know that it is enough, thus making it also unlikely (Let’s say 20% with a 5% margin of error). I would put the probability of getting in to another conference at 30% on the high end, but more around 25%. That leaves the lion share of probability remaining in the current Big 12 or heading to the AAC at around 70%.

I am glad you are looking forward to my responses and am okay with you calling out my negativity. Maybe I post as a coping mechanism for dealing with the uncertainty surrounding the program I love? I don’t know. However, the staying in a reconstructed Big 12 is the most likely of outcomes and I have to let go of my biases (which I believe we should be in a Power Conference). You can say I am beating a dead horse, but all evidence is pointing to this outcome as the most likely.

OMG. Think 'narrative'. The 'documentation' was from a time in the past. The 'source' had motivation to skew numbers. The 'system' in place had no incentive to show other numbers. People living off those numbers are stuck in a world that no longer exists. Don't buy the swamp.

 

[NWICY]

Pac-12 open to possible expansion, new commissioner says

Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff spoke with the Review-Journal about the state of college athletics, including the future of his conference, which could be expanding.

www.reviewjournal.com

Probably the biggest piece of real news since OU and UT's departure. Pac-12 commish expects to have a real answer about whether that league will expand or not "in the next couple of weeks."

If yes, the competition for those four spots (likely just four) will be fierce; if no, the Big 12 leftovers are probably gonna have to start thinking about sending our own invites out for 2025.

This timeline seems much faster than many on here expected.

Meh, let them wait till the end of the season, we'll be worth more then!

 

[Cyclones1969]

OMG. Think 'narrative'. The 'documentation' was from a time in the past. The 'source' had motivation to skew numbers. The 'system' in place had no incentive to show other numbers. People living off those numbers are stuck in a world that no longer exists. Don't buy the swamp.

It doesn’t matter. It’s all over. Don’t worry, He’s going to be heartbroken though.

Deep exhale. It’s a schtick for some of these folks.