IOWA STATE TO BIG TEN?!? Dave Wannstedt thinks so.

[ILikeBacon]

LOL

You are both right.

Cable subscriptions don't matter as much as they did 10 years ago. Analysts working the deals will account for that.
Dramatic drop in cable/sat usage

Assuming the 'LOL' was about whether cable still matters or not, cable/sat still makes up just over half of adults - so that's still a large amount as of now.

However, deals being made now or in the next year or two will be based on forward projections (i.e. out to 2030-35), not the current state - so cable/sat impacts on the next deals being worked should be discounted further yet.

 

[psychlone99]

FINALLY

If I'm gonna pick a point man to dissect a hype man, it's Blum. If I could form a hybrid for this event, I would pair Blum's intellect with Chris' raw, shoot from the hip passion.

 

[Gonzo]

You are both right.

Cable subscriptions don't matter as much as they did 10 years ago. Analysts working the deals will account for that.
Dramatic drop in cable/sat usage

Assuming the 'LOL' was about whether cable still matters or not, cable/sat still makes up just over half of adults - so that's still a large amount as of now.

However, deals being made now or in the next year or two will be based on forward projections (i.e. out to 2030-35), not the current state - so cable/sat impacts on the next deals being worked should be discounted further yet.

There's no way to know deals will be made out 10-14 years. The genius of Delany's last B1G media deal was that it was only 6 years. So the conference could rake it in and then re-up before other conference's long-term deals. With a media landscape that's so in flux it wouldn't be that smart to sign such a long-term deal. The ACC may be protected by its GoR until 2035 but the individual payouts are peanuts.

 

[Gunnerclone]

The key business point that everybody is forgetting: as long as the college playoff stays at 4 teams, the expansion is checkmated, especially for the SEC.

Staying at four teams will slow everything down. Do you think OU and UT want to go to the SEC when there's only four teams in the college football playoff?

Yes. They are getting a huge raise no matter what. OU is going to have a harder time making the playoff but it’s not like they won’t be right there most years. Texas has sucked for quite awhile so they can get a bigger payday and keep sucking so what difference does the playoff make to them?

 

[isucy86]

I agree. Why did the go the route of even having to say anything at all then? The BIG and ACC didn’t release anything like this? Prepping people on the west coast for it in the future?

The Pac12's new Commissioner's background with MGM makes him a little more friendly to media sound bites than a traditional college athletics lifer.

The Pac12 may be in no position to expand, Their TV contract is currently 5th among the P5 and their Pac12 Network subscriber base is down 50% over the last 5 years. Their go forward path is the least certain among the Alliance- the Big10, SEC and ACC all have their own networks backed by FOX or ESPN. IMO the Pac12 needs to figure out if there is a Pac12 Network post 2024. If not, their potential partner will determine if expansion is warranted. It might also drive USC, Oregon, Washington, etc. from the Pac12.

I would think timing of media rights renewals could drive expansion. It might be too messy to rework existing deals with FOX or ESPN for only a couple years.

Big10 deal expires after 2023 (Corrected- said Big12)
Pac12 deal expires after 2024

Plus the SEC deal with ESPN that gives SEC $250M incremental TV rights monies goes into effect 2024.

 

[Mr.G.Spot]

Yes. They are getting a huge raise no matter what. OU is going to have a harder time making the playoff but it’s not like they won’t be right there most years. Texas has sucked for quite awhile so they can get a bigger payday and keep sucking so what difference does the playoff make to them?

I disagree. The path to the playoffs at four teams will be a lot more difficult through the SEC for Texas and OU then the path to the playoffs by winning the Big 12 championship.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

There's no way to know deals will be made out 10-14 years. The genius of Delany's last B1G media deal was that it was only 6 years. So the conference could rake it in and then re-up before other conference's long-term deals. With a media landscape that's so in flux it wouldn't be that smart to sign such a long-term deal. The ACC may be protected by its GoR until 2035 but the individual payouts are peanuts.

The Big Ten has played the last couple decades worth of media rights masterfully. The winner of the next round will be whoever manages the addition of streaming services the best. By "winner" I don't mean the richest league; I mean the league that performs the best relative to its baseline. I expect the Big 12 to go very aggressive on streaming and try to be the winner by cashing in on a streaming bet maybe one round before the other power leagues go all in on it. All of the other power leagues have a linear cable network that they still have to push; it will still be valuable and profitable through this next round at a minimum, but eventually it will be less worthwhile than streaming rights.

 

[convoluteme]

I disagree. The path to the playoffs at four teams will be a lot more difficult through the SEC for Texas and OU then the path to the playoffs by winning the Big 12 championship.

They don't care about the playoff. They want the SEC paycheck and the ability to tell recruits they play in the SEC.

 

[BCClone]

How long are we tied to that ESPN+ for our tier 3 rights?

 

[Mr.G.Spot]

They don't care about the playoff. They want the SEC paycheck and the ability to tell recruits they play in the SEC.

They don't care about the playoff???

UT is sitting on $30 billion in their foundation and already the highest revenue of any athletic department in the country - 2019 numbers. Money is a minor motivator and way behind a perceived/real recruiting advantage - I agree on the point.

OU and UT would not have announced (a&m did thru the chronicle) until the vote to expand to 12 teams. That was supposed to take place in August. That vote is now delayed and the president of West Virginia said there is no way that it will pass.

OU and UT, in their wildest imagination, would not want to go to the SEC if the playoff stays at four teams.

 

[The Good Doctor]

We are toast. UCF taking a wait and see approach is a kick in the nuts.

 

[The Good Doctor]

Thanks Jaime!

 

[clonehome]

Right. Those adds should happen when it’s clear that’s the path to viability. I agree, the timeline is more likely months, not years. I just think it’s premature to start adding teams in August 2021, especially if it muddies the current GOR or possibility of payout.

Expansion is the last option, especially for the schools that may get an invite to one of the other 4 conferences. If the invites don’t come then there is no point to start a revamped Big 12 before 2025, unless OU, UT and ESPN are willing to cough up serious money before then, like $200 mil per school.

 

[AuH2O]

Thanks Jaime!

Are you referring to El Directora de Athleticos Jaime Pollard?

 

[shawn_200m]

Texas Tech AD Kirby Hocutt says Big 12 expansion plans are under way

Texas Tech athletics director Kirby Hocutt is a member of four-person subcommittee tasked with leading Big 12 efforts to add new members.

amp.lubbockonline.com

 

[AuH2O]

FINALLY

I don’t know who this guy is, but I’m going to assume he is in sports media, and is full of dumb and outdated takes about “no value”. Like I said before, these aren’t deep thinkers. These are clickbait whores. I trust their insight on the business of sports media as much as I trust the kid putting carrots on the shelf at Hy-Vee to tell me about the future of produce supply chains.

I’m sure I’ll get all kinds of **** about how this guy knows his stuff, but last week CW interviewed some college football matrix guy, and he was ******* clueless about you know, actual on the field college football. So apparently he is an analytics guy. Fine, call your site “analytics for degenerate gamblers that don’t actually care or no **** about college football matrix.”

 

[Cyinthenorth]

If Dave is at least mostly right then I would guess it means the Pac-12 expands to 16. The ACC would only go to 15 to leave a spot for Notre Dame, who would be welcome to play Alliance games and count as an ACC opponent. This way all three leagues have 16 schools (effectively) and they can each play 1 from the other 2 leagues per year.

So again if Dave knows what he’s talking about a little bit, I expect Tech to go west with OSU and KSU, and the 16th team there would be really interesting depending on the league’s openness to adding a religious institution in TCU, or whether they would wait and see if UNLV grows into a G5 program worthy of that spot.

LOL

 

[2speedy1]

I don’t know who this guy is, but I’m going to assume he is in sports media, and is full of dumb and outdated takes about “no value”. Like I said before, these aren’t deep thinkers. These are clickbait whores. I trust their insight on the business of sports media as much as I trust the kid putting carrots on the shelf at Hy-Vee to tell me about the future of produce supply chains.

I’m sure I’ll get all kinds of **** about how this guy knows his stuff, but last week CW interviewed some college football matrix guy, and he was ******* clueless about you know, actual on the field college football. So apparently he is an analytics guy. Fine, call your site “analytics for degenerate gamblers that don’t actually care or no **** about college football matrix.”

He's the Editor in Chief of the Athletic, and he's not been favorable really to the Big 12 as far as I can tell. Neither has the Athletic, which is basically just another ESPN mouthpiece.

 

[AuH2O]

JFC, Wilner? This is the same dim bulb who was saying that the PAC and ACC will not expand. Not because he had any sources or insight, but because the ACC commish can’t say that the Big 12 is important then turn around and poach teams. He’s basically saying a business seeing another clearly going under wouldn’t give employees of the failing business jobs because it would appear predatory.

I’m not saying they will end up expanding, but people need to realize that these sports media types not only don’t know Jack ****, they are susceptible to some really stupid ideas, maybe because they have to write SOMETHING and have to have some reasoning behind their blind guesses.

 

[besserheimerphat]

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